[converted_hand][hand_history]$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
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SB:
BB:
Hero (CO): $103.34 (103.3 bb)
BTN: $105.19 (105.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J A
Hero raises to $3, BTN raises to $9, 2 folds, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($19.50) 9 A T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($43.50) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($43.50) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $30.25, Hero ????

Villain is 21/17 Tag over 4.5k hands
3bets in this spot 11% but 3bets vs my BU open significantly more so far because Ive been overfolding from his POV vs 3bets. So far he is not 3betting me more than 11% in this spot tho.

cb F in 3bp: 87 and Turn 38 but not so much sample OTT
Flop/Turn/River AFq in all pots: 38/26/20 so he is very nitty on the river.
I thought ingame it looks rather like a vbet than a bluff here. Hes definitely 3betting polarized tho so idk...
****ty spot because its pure leveling. Does he think im capped and a nit here or is he the nit and just bombs it for value here ? Hate these spots

Would just meh fold. K is a bad card because it completes QJs/KK. You're really only beating hands like 87s, 86s. When we get to this river, TP is towards the bottom of our range. We can have 99/Tx/T9s/QJs/A10s/A10o. He bets flop pretty large for a 3-bet pot, so it's not like you're continuing with a lot of random garbage.

Bet x bet is almost always value. A lot of players would just bluff the turn with their semi-bluffs, but if he's good enough to realize Tx is better for your range, he might x back most of his range.

You really shouldn't be capped here. you should be checking most if not all of your range when this river falls.

We should be checking range on river because? I often don't know whether I should bet or check in these situations.

Dont think we see KK here alot since it is checking flop most of the time, we block QJ and some of them would not 3bet pre. So, I would call readless, take my money...

My bad, was probably exaggerating a bit when I said we should be checking pretty much our entire range on this river.

There are not too many value bets you can have here, and not too many bluffs either. You have a lot of hands that want to go to showdown (Ax, 9x, JJ & QQ if you decided not to 4-bet pre). I would just bet Tx+/FHs/straights on this river, and bluffs some floats like 87s/KJs with backdoors/straight draws OTF that whiffed.

Checking here with AJ was good. There arent too many worse hands that can call a bet, esp when the K rolls off.

Meh, now that I think about it, calling is fine. We have a lot of other hands that want to x/f this river. Probably fold some Ax and call hands like AJ/AQ since we block QJs. It's close though. Dont expect a nit with those barreling frequencies to be bluffing here often.

Completely readless, I agree with Buttons that this is a call. I think given his stats and the fact that he thinks we overfold to 3-bets makes it less likely he's going to bluff this river

Depends on overall strategy, but I would probably bet KK at a decent frequency. A lot of worse hands will defend vs the flop c-bet esp if we use a 45% sizing (10x, 9x, a ton of backdoors/straight draws, etc). I'm also 3-betting QJs BTN vs CO at a 100% frequency unless the raiser is a total nit. I 3-bet something like 13-15% BTN vs CO.

Additionally, I think players would check back AK at some frequency OTT to protect their xb range, can't get 3 streets often without some kind of history, and 10x is better for our range than him.

Yeah, I would call readless but OP gave some stats that imo lean this towarda a fold.