Originally Posted by terp
the biggest problem with wanting to fold is assigning a range that beats us. i can't say i've seen many people 5x squeeze 99/TT here
You do, however, note in post #5 the strong possibility that villain is squeezing a de-polarised range because of the presence of the SB fish. Given this, I would ask:
1) Why would TT/99 not be part of this range in addition to hands like KQ? They all seem like very good hands to squeeze in this spot to me.
2) Surely if villain's intention is to extract maximum value from the fish, he would 3 bet to the highest amount that he thought the fish would call? I would have thought this would be especially true with a mid-PP where it would be more beneficial to create a lower SPR.
Even if your assumptions are true, you could easily contend that it's significantly less likely that villain ever takes this line with a bluff than 99/TT. We should also be wary of the fact that he snap-jammed the river. He can't have been expecting a raise given our line and the fact that we tanked vs. his river bet so I imagine the overwhelming majority of players would at least have to think about it a bit before 3 bet shipping in 250BB w/ air.