Villain is 23/17 with 6% squeeze and 59% fold to 4bet , SB caller was a fish

Button ($171.46)
SB ($173.46)
BB (BB) ($518.04)
UTG ($627.22)
Hero ($615.65)
CO ($197)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, A
1 fold, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, SB calls $5, BB to $28, Hero raises to $66, 1 fold, BB calls $38

Flop: ($138) 4, 9, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($138) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $40, Hero calls $40

River: ($218) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $40, Hero raises to $152, BB raises to $412.04 (All-In)

Hero ???


villain tanked the turn and the river before betting
he quickly pushed my river raise after i tanked

id bet flop and now call riv.

Strange hand, but I'd fold river. Villains turn bet looks like he wants to induce some action and doesn't expect you to have anything since you checked the flop through. Same with the river bet unless this was his plan from the start on the river. I wouldn't give villain enough credit here and level myself into a call. I'd need some history to know he'd try some kind of bluff here or he'd value shove with worse (because he'd need history too).

I might flat the 3bet depending on how bad the SB is. it kind of sucks that you're so deep with BB but I think you reveal your hand strength quite a bit by 4betting with the fish left to act

pretty cool spot

i don't know how much we really reveal our hand strength or if it is relevant. OP really needs more reads here - i know his overall sq is lowish, but does it tend to include hands like KQ etc to isolate the fish? is it mostly for value? i have a hard time believing someone would squeeze 99 here so we should be afraid of TT or some complete trash 5x hand basically. not saying it's a call, just that he has a hard time convincing me.

why did you check the flop? when doing something so unconventional you should explain to everyone your reasoning

I do think the 4bet reveals our strength but I should've pointed out that the main reason I would flat is to let the fish in because he should make more mistakes than the reg. I think 4betting here with 100bbs would be terrible though I do agree the situation is less clear while 250bb deep vs the reg.

What do you mean by it not being relevant btw? Getting 4bet while 250bb deep oop is a pretty sick feeling with JJ/QQ/Ak (and it's not even that pleasant with KK) and I don't think our percieved range is bluff heavy considering all playable hands in our range would flat since we are crazy deep with position and with a fish to let in. So we'd have to be 4betting KJo or A5o and I don't think we get credit for that considering we are so deep bb can flat and bc the SB could spaz. Depending on SB's style fish are pretty likely to just shove in 22-88 and AJ and stuff over heavy action with less than 100bbs.

i may have exaggerated, but i wouldn't expect those hands to fold. they basically have more opportunities to err facing a 4bet than they do facing a call, i believe.

I agree that they won't fold preflop but I think we get more postflop value by flatting. At some point postflop QQ/JJ probably will fold before 250bbs goes in after we flat the 3bet, but I think that decision to fold will come at a later point considering our range will always include draws and worse hands as the 3bet caller. Once we 4bet I think QQ/JJ finds a fold a bit earlier if my assumptions about what he perceives our 4bet range in this spot to be is accurate.

That's also not to mention that letting the SB in likely results in a $170 win for us if he catches any piece.

keyser has a point. at the same time, given these stacks depths i would really rather have the SPR smaller when i have a most of the time 1 pair hand by the river. crux is really how you think villain with perceive your 4bet range and whether the increase perceived strength of it + possibility of losing fish can be compensated for the likelihood he stacks off lighter post flop.

check flop is terrible, now fold river

Once i get to the river like this, i'd prob just jam. 152 just looks so valuetown imo.
It's not that big of an overshove anyway.

I would just flat the squeeze preflop and let the fish in, I mean you have AA and position. That seems like the best line.

4betting preflop with AA is OK, but I'd rather 4bet a little bigger with these stack sizes, if I'm gonna do it.

As played, I think checking on that flop is OK to induce some action on later streets. I would rather bet like 1/4 or 1/3 pot on flop. Just calling the turn bet seems fine since at this point his hand doesn't look all that strong. River is raise/fold. Unless he is really bad with hand like JJ-KK, AA beats nothing that he is representing especially this deep.

the biggest problem with wanting to fold is assigning a range that beats us. i can't say i've seen many people 5x squeeze 99/TT here

You do, however, note in post #5 the strong possibility that villain is squeezing a de-polarised range because of the presence of the SB fish. Given this, I would ask:

1) Why would TT/99 not be part of this range in addition to hands like KQ? They all seem like very good hands to squeeze in this spot to me.

2) Surely if villain's intention is to extract maximum value from the fish, he would 3 bet to the highest amount that he thought the fish would call? I would have thought this would be especially true with a mid-PP where it would be more beneficial to create a lower SPR.

Even if your assumptions are true, you could easily contend that it's significantly less likely that villain ever takes this line with a bluff than 99/TT. We should also be wary of the fact that he snap-jammed the river. He can't have been expecting a raise given our line and the fact that we tanked vs. his river bet so I imagine the overwhelming majority of players would at least have to think about it a bit before 3 bet shipping in 250BB w/ air.