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 Small Stakes PL/NL Discussions regarding small stakes pot and no-limit hold'em (50c-1 to 1-2)

 08-01-2012, 01:51 AM #1 temp-banned     Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 648 5bet shove math Villain opens 3bbs from CO Hero 3bets BTN for 9bbs Villain 4bets to 20bbs Hero shoves for 91bbs more Hero's holding A 3 Villain's 4bet range is ~5.71% or 70 combinations Calls = 51/70 (AQ+, TT+) = ~0.7 Folds = 19/70 = ~0.3 Our equity vs. that range = 30.5% EV = .7*(.305*200bb-91bbs)+.3*(29bbs) EV = 23 + 9 EV = 32 bbs Correct me if my calculations are wrong but the result seems kinda very +EV. Kinda too much?
 08-01-2012, 03:03 AM #2 old hand   Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 1,896 Re: 5bet shove math I'm not very good at this but I'll take a shot. The math looks correct, but I'm not positive you have the right numbers. 30% time he folds, you win 29bb 100% of the time. .3(29) 70% of the time he calls. Of that 70% you have 30.5% equity of the final pot. .7(.305*200)-Stack if you fold(91bb) So .3(29)+.7(.305*200)-91 EV=8.7+61-91 EV= -21.3bb Hopefully someone can verify if this is right or point out where I made a mistake.
 08-01-2012, 04:07 AM #3 newbie   Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 21 Re: 5bet shove math 1st line has to be .7(.305*200bb-.695*91bb)
 08-01-2012, 04:13 AM #4 old hand     Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: I'm not there, I'm gone. Posts: 1,316 Re: 5bet shove math I suck at this too and have been trying to improve at it. I think it's EV of Call= .3*200-91= -31 EV of Fold= 29 Total EV= .7 *-31 + .3 *29= -13 If someone could confirm this it'd be really helpful.
 08-01-2012, 04:50 AM #5 adept   Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,125 Re: 5bet shove math BornToRun has it correct, and as a rule of thumb you're going to need about 50% folds with a hand like this to breakeven, as you can see from his math.
 08-01-2012, 05:08 AM #6 old hand     Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: I'm not there, I'm gone. Posts: 1,316 Re: 5bet shove math Yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
 08-01-2012, 05:59 AM #7 journeyman   Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 377 Re: 5bet shove math think we defo have more FE in this spot.
 08-01-2012, 08:53 AM #8 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: HK Posts: 4,427 Re: 5bet shove math 69.5% of the time you will lose 91bbs so 0.695 x -91bb = -63.245bb 30.5% of the time you will win 109bbs so 0.305 x 109bb = 33.245 ev of getting it all in = -30bb this happens 70% of the time so 0.7 x -30bb = -21bb 30% of the time you pick up 29bb = 0.3 x 29bb = 8.7bb therefore 5b shoving = -21bb + 8.7bb = -12.3bb free information. youre welcome.
 08-01-2012, 11:10 AM #9 grinder     Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Montreal Posts: 472 Re: 5bet shove math nh sick
 08-01-2012, 12:01 PM #10 temp-banned     Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 648 Re: 5bet shove math Thank you guys!
08-01-2012, 02:46 PM   #11
old hand

Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,896
Re: 5bet shove math

Quote:
 Originally Posted by thatssosick 69.5% of the time you will lose 91bbs so 0.695 x -91bb = -63.245bb 30.5% of the time you will win 109bbs so 0.305 x 109bb = 33.245 ev of getting it all in = -30bb this happens 70% of the time so 0.7 x -30bb = -21bb 30% of the time you pick up 29bb = 0.3 x 29bb = 8.7bb therefore 5b shoving = -21bb + 8.7bb = -12.3bb free information. youre welcome.
This is what I was going for but I knew I missed something. TY

08-02-2012, 04:45 AM   #12
old hand

Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,451
Re: 5bet shove math

Quote:
 Originally Posted by thatssosick 69.5% of the time you will lose 91bbs so 0.695 x -91bb = -63.245bb 30.5% of the time you will win 109bbs so 0.305 x 109bb = 33.245 ev of getting it all in = -30bb this happens 70% of the time so 0.7 x -30bb = -21bb 30% of the time you pick up 29bb = 0.3 x 29bb = 8.7bb therefore 5b shoving = -21bb + 8.7bb = -12.3bb free information. youre welcome.
you think you're so smart.

08-02-2012, 06:51 AM   #13
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: HK
Posts: 4,427
Re: 5bet shove math

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BoC34 you think you're so smart.
mate i dont think. i know.

08-02-2012, 09:31 AM   #14
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 4,595
Re: 5bet shove math

Quote:
 Originally Posted by thatssosick 69.5% of the time you will lose 91bbs so 0.695 x -91bb = -63.245bb 30.5% of the time you will win 109bbs so 0.305 x 109bb = 33.245 ev of getting it all in = -30bb this happens 70% of the time so 0.7 x -30bb = -21bb 30% of the time you pick up 29bb = 0.3 x 29bb = 8.7bb therefore 5b shoving = -21bb + 8.7bb = -12.3bb free information. youre welcome.
shouldnt it be 30.5bb as you missed the blinds out?

so.....

30% of the time you pick up 30.5bb (our 3b, his 4b and the blinds) = 0.3 x 30.5bb = 9.15bb

therefore 5b shoving = -21bb + 9.15bb = -11.85bb

08-03-2012, 09:16 AM   #15
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: HK
Posts: 4,427
Re: 5bet shove math

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Big_Mick00 shouldnt it be 30.5bb as you missed the blinds out? so..... 30% of the time you pick up 30.5bb (our 3b, his 4b and the blinds) = 0.3 x 30.5bb = 9.15bb therefore 5b shoving = -21bb + 9.15bb = -11.85bb
wp sir.

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