villain is a pretty tight reg 20/18 fold to 3bet 87% WTS 24% 800Hands
can i turn my hand here in to a bluff on the river ?
I rep AQ QQ Q10 and i block the nuts.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 116.42 BB (VPIP: 20.15, PFR: 16.52, 3Bet Preflop: 8.06, Hands: 673)
Hero (SB): 209.64 BB
BB: 40.18 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 17.20, 3Bet Preflop: 13.79, Hands: 98)
UTG: 142.96 BB (VPIP: 22.12, PFR: 17.26, 3Bet Preflop: 11.84, Hands: 229)
MP: 82.06 BB (VPIP: 18.27, PFR: 10.15, 3Bet Preflop: 1.23, Hands: 201)
CO: 108.32 BB (VPIP: 23.50, PFR: 18.12, 3Bet Preflop: 8.07, Hands: 724)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jc Jh
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BTN calls 7 BB

Flop : (19 BB, 2 players) Th Ah 9d
Hero checks, BTN bets 9.02 BB, Hero calls 9.02 BB

Turn : (37.04 BB, 2 players) 5d
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (37.04 BB, 2 players) Qc
Hero checks, BTN bets 12.3 BB, Hero raises to 41 BB, BTN calls 28.7 BB

Hero shows Jc Jh (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 65%, Flop 11%, Turn 2%)

BTN shows As Js (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 35%, Flop 89%, Turn 98%)

BTN wins 115.04 BB

Even though you don't play many flush draws like this, the fact that they both missed and you raised a 1/3 PSB, people are going to assign you a lot more bluffs in your range.

Think hand is pretty standard, but river is just a fold. I don't think you play AQ like this either, so you're really only repping QQ/Q10dd.

Do you 4.5x vs a BTN min open as a standard? Seems quite big to me.

TBH the river raise is a mistake your only going to get a bluff to fold, check call, you beat the bluff and save a few chips against a better hand!

IMHO fold the river, the raise on the flop was OK

Admin, plz ban this guy

I presume you mean the call on the flop?

A river fold would be OK if you felt you were beat, however from the way our friend played this hand he felt he maybe ahead. (Our hero did mention the villain was tight so maybe we have over played JJ here with an A on board and should have tried to control the pot size) The question was "River raise OK?" My point was if he felt he had to put chips in on the river a check call would control the pot size and loses if beat as we were here, as the old adage goes better to win a small pot than lose a large one.

The other guy played like crap TBH.

From an ABC point of view you are correct I would never feel happy calling a 3bet with AJ, most of us would muck the hand preflop. Once the flop came with an A he really has to play as he did, why call preflop?

Without knowing how the table had played before this hand we can say he was lucky with AJ, however if our villain had a read on our hero (different bet size for AK) or our hero has been 3beting light he could feel AJ is good so in which case he controlled the pot and was correct.

Dude, what are you smoking? Not calling 3bet pre with AJss and even with AJ bt vs sb is incredibly nitty.

What are you trying to achieve here with a raise? Mostly gets better hands to call and worse hands to fold. Apart from this he is getting ~3:1 on a call and there are plenty of missed draws in your range you could have on this boards, such as KQ to make his call right more than 25% of the time.
I'd c/c OTR, flop and turn fine as played.

Do you thinkle V 4bets AK pre here?

If so, I don't like the river raise because we double block AJ and this guy plays so tight agaist 3bets he may not even call AJo vs your 4.5X re-raise. In that case AQ seems his most likely holding and he's never folding that.

If he has all the AK and unblocked AJ combos in his range I suppose this is a fine candidate to have in our C/R bluff range but you have to make it a lot bigger to convince V you got a real hand here. 75BB maybe.

Depends on the table.

If you're not calling a 3-bet otb w/AJs to a sb raise, you're pretty ****ing bad. It isn't nitty, it's just bad.

Okay.

You hit your J. You bet, he raises.

Now what?

So Villains range is pretty pretty face up, literally AJ, and a nittly played AQ. He's not turning Tx into a bluff, and most of his range is going to be decently strong since his fold to 3-bet is pretty high. He's not betting or turning KK-JJ into a bluff on the river w/ that sizing, so his hand is exactly like it looks - AJ, because he's betting AK/AT and probably AQ most of the time on the turn. He's nitty, so you could get him to fold, but not with that sizing. I'd assume he'd expect you to bet your draws on that flop, so he should put you on AQ/AJ/QT and not have you on a ton of bluffs. So I like it if the sizing is better.

You played right into villain's hand. Low stakes TAGs love pot control because it lets them snap off bluffs without making the pots too big. A-big dominates villains range here. Trying to make them lay it down might be legit but not for that bet size. You need to bet enough that they feel uncomfortable with the call. You gave him better than 3-1. You probably needed a shove to generate sufficient leverage here.

Also your line is fishy. Most people don't check the river with a big hand after the turn goes c/c


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I think it's a bit too tight to fold AJ on the button facing a 3bet from the BB. The 3bet size is a bit larger than usual, but I can't really imagine that folding AJ here is a profitable play.

Sorry dude, but you are just nuts not wishing to learn from more experianced posters.

So you play the hand by calling the 3bet then donk betting?