€1.00 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 91.38 BB (VPIP: 15.96, PFR: 13.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 98)
BTN: 81.88 BB (VPIP: 73.33, PFR: 46.67, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 113.38 BB (VPIP: 20.50, PFR: 10.59, 3Bet Preflop: 1.90, Hands: 3,944)
Hero (BB): 123.36 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

CO raises to 2.68 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10.36 BB, CO calls 7.68 BB

Flop: (21.22 BB, 2 players) T 4 5
Hero bets 10.62 BB, CO calls 10.62 BB

Turn: (42.46 BB, 2 players) 2
[b]Hero?

He made an insta flop call, but he is a nit over 100 hands.
Should I bluff this Turn, If so what sizing. Should Flop sizing be higher to leave a pot sized bet on turn because we can catch some good cards to bluff 2,3,K,J

no

Don't think this card changes much and he will most likely continue to call with whatever he called with on the flop

overbet

Stacksize suggests weaker player…have you established whether he is a likely postflop nit too or a station? Happily committing to 3 in the first instance, but if he's one of those recs who likes to cling on you should c/f turn. In a lot of cases though it doesn't seem like a bad spot to empty the clip, we can rep a pretty legit value range on a lot of rivers and a flop snap call probably discounts a lot of the really strong hands in our opponents range imo.

w/ AQ/AK i think c/c on boards like these is kinda good as well as betting


as played on this turn as others have said i'm giving up a lot of the time, and betting pot/overbetting some depending on villain

He insta called flop, He would prob think for a bit with JJ 44 55, only one possible two pair combination that is unlikely. his range is a pair between 66 - 99 = 24 combos, some flush draws AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,KQs-KJs,QJs,98s,87s about 9 combos and suited Tens which have about 6 combos, and JJ for 6 combos. I assume my outs are clean which is why this is a good board to bet larger on flop, and the turn doesn't improve any of his draws so he can't call it off. using an equity calculator villain only has to fold 35% (this is for an all in over bet as you are committed if you bet near pot). I think that makes this spot a definite bluff, he can't call with his flush draw combos, his pairs below Ten and might fold some Tens. he has nitty stats but only over 98 hands so it doesn't mean he isn't playing looser.

c/f flop

Fire one and although you picked up the gutter and it seems weak to shut down, judging by his stats I would say he doesn't have any floats or ace highs in his range. If he has flush draws or medium PPs he's not folding turn so you're going to have to 3 barrel. Seems like an awfully unnecessary high variance spot versus a nit who called a 3b + flop. Those generally aren't the spots you want to pick.

Haven't read replies.

I don't think I even 3bet pre-flop.

And as played, I'm not sure I even bet flop.

And as played I am pretty sure I do not bet turn. Blah ... actually you did pickup a gutter and you still have two overs. Is villain calling the 3bet with midpairs? If so, then turn may be a good bet, but in such case I think you need to 3 barrel it.

what is the correct flop play and why?
if I bet flop I can't get called by a worse hand and ever 99 will peal one so it is bad if I don't pick up additional outs but I do pick up additional barrel equity now and again like K or J and I have some pair outs. If I half pot flop prob only needs to work 25% of the time and that is not considering my barrel equity which is very small. I think AQss is definitely a c-bet.

best post.

What are you accomplishing with flop cbet? Folding AJ, KQs at best scenario.
Before cbeting turn u have to look at his fold turn/river and wtsd. Because u will get called a lot on that turn and u will have to bet 3rd barrel to make him fold a pair.
In my opinion, the best play is to call PF.
And why is 2 a good river card to bluff?

check fold the flop he s a nit and he called your 3bet.

3 betting this mega nit w aq i dont think is a good plan, u lose the value of a good hand if he 4bets, and when he calls u are rarely in good shape...i would triple this if ur image is good for it, or ch fold flop.
Cheers!

Ok cool thanks for the replies

I would probably check-fold the flop after 3-betting pre. But if we had the ace or queen of clubs in our hand then I would definetly c-bet the flop. Intending to bet the turn on any card that gives us equity because we have many cards that give us equity on the turn( a club,K,A,Q).
Here our equity is not that good and we probably don't have enough fold equity to make a profitable bluff.

Here's how I would have played it and my thought process. I'm assuming I 3bet the BTN.

My hand beats the majority of villains bluffing range this flop with A high. Cbetting is likely to make the hands which I dominate in villains range fold (AXs, KQs, QJs,). With a draw heavy non-broadway flop like this, villain will continue with the majority of his PF calling/flop value ranges. Therefore cbetting is a bad idea, because it folds out the hands we have value against and doesn't fold out better.

So I check back and see the turn. If Q or A drop and villain leads the turn, we can call against villain's value range which we crush. If villain leads on the blank turn I'm 50/50 between folding and calling to bluff the river. Although I'd prefer a J or K so I can bluff raise on the turn than the 2 for I think our nut GS retains value if we hit against all of his turn calling range vs a 2bet. Allot of villains cards to continue bluffing river actually give us a strong pair or straight so thats why I call on the 2,3 non club turns. If the 3rd club drops, we can rep a flush and bluff raise the river- based on our actions so it actually makes our hand look more credible and balances for the times we value.

If checked to the turn, I definitely will definitely fire a pot sized bet the turn. Villains range is like never that strong. Our picked up GS, clubs to bluff, and overcards mean that we actually improve vs villains turn calling range often enough to value b/f the river if we pair.

I'm a huge fish, so most of my thinking is stupid though. Just my thought process when I'm in hands.