Villain stats:
69 hands. VP 36 / PFR 24 / F3B 50 / FCB 50/ WTSD 33%



SB: $237.65 (118.8 bb)
BB: $200 (100 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $378.33 (189.2 bb)
Hero (BTN): $207 (103.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
MP folds, CO raises to $5, Hero raises to $16, 2 folds, CO calls $11

Flop: ($35) 6 8 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $17.71, CO calls $17.71

Turn: ($70.42) Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($70.42) 7 (2 players)
CO bets $51, Hero...?

so, its between calling and raising?

I was gonna call or fold. Range I put him on when he called me on the flop 22-QQ, 89s? AQ/AJ . I think he would 4b me with KK/AA/AK. I also don't think he would float me light OOP. On river I think he would check all his weak pairs. I think he bets AQ/66/88/89s/QQ.
If he plays like that that leaves 15 combos. 8 of them would be AQ so I think it is probably between raising and folding.

edit: Probably leaning towards fold because he might fold alot of AQ on the the flop. So lets just say he folds AQ on flop half the time that leaves 4 combos of AQ. 4 combos AQ might fold to raise, 2 combos 89s might fold to raise, 4 combos 66 never folding, 1 combo 88 never folding.

if it's between folding and calling i would call against anyone but a legit nit.

If that's his flop calling range then 77 got there on the river too.

Not sure wtf is going on in this thread. Villain is not folding 98s or AQ to a raise on the river, raising would be very bad. Also if you decide to check back turn with this hand its not to fold to a 60% psb on river... I call quickly.

Oh yea sorry I didn't mean fold I was just pointing out jubjub didn't mention 77 as a fullhouse otr. Def calling as played.

I am betting turn near 100%

+1

Also, flat pre and cbetting this flop is marginal...I would cbet here if I had a backdoor flushdraw.

Sent from my VS870 4G

+2

as played snap call

call pre
bet turn
call river

turn is a pretty decent/ great barrel card, why would you miss bet with made hand there?

As played (even though I can't imagine being in this spot) I snap call ..

+1. Not betting turn seems like a huge mistake.

Very standard call.

I agree with turn bet. What size are we going to use? And how will we play rivers?

You are making some assumptions that might not be true based on villian's stat.

It is a pretty standard call on the river as played.

bet turn as played call ldo

Why not cbet flop? Folds out Jx, Qx, Kx that might steal it away later.

So is the river a valuebet? Targeting only 9 9-J J and he could easily have all combos of A Q on river plus some 8x, 6 6 and 7 7. Doesnt really seem like it.

What I want to know here is the range this guy puts us on for the 3bet?? Would you be able to show us your 3 bet % from the button and blinds? What's your 5 bet % or fold to 4bet.

What's he got really in his range... Does he still have many AA? We certainly don't want to discount them completely. Otherwise, it's only really 77 or perhaps 66. Nothing else really makes sense... There must be a missing piece of the puzzle, I'm guessing this guy has a read on you somewhere.

Is my logic wrong?

I 3b KQ vs him cause I seen him call 3bets oop with KJo and TJs so I'm assuming if I 3bet KQ I will dominate him most of the time, this is assuming he 4bets AK+ KK+. This is the range I'm assuming he calls me with QQ-22,AQo-AJo,KQo-KJo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs (my equity against his range is around 47%). I didn't want to bet the turn because I'm gonna get maximum of only 2 streets of value from any of the hands I have beat (so I can just bet river when he checks). If I bet turn and he decides to turn his hands into bluffs I may fold the best hand on the river or if hes slowplaying I'm building the pot for him and may pay him off. As played I did end up calling.

Edit: When I said 2 streets of value I meant he would only call 2 streets with his PP hands so I wouldn't get payed on my river bet unless maybe if i bet really small