2nd nuts get shoved on. Bet size ? - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

Two Plus Two Forums Archived Forums Strategy Small Stakes PL/NL

2nd nuts get shoved on. Bet size ?

...

04-18-2017 , 01:53 AM

straddle_me

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 839

Villain is a 50/2, fold cb 43%, raise cb otf 17%, .7 agg factor over 163 hands

Bet size otr a mistake? Calling shove getting over 3/1?

SB: $73.08 (146.2 bb)
BB: $36.81 (73.6 bb)
MP: $74.93 (149.9 bb)
CO: $31.93 (63.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $80.48 (161 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q

2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.62, BB calls $1.62

Turn: ($6.49) 3

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.32, BB calls $4.32

River: ($15.13) K

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11.34,BB raises to $29.37 and is all-in... Hero?

04-18-2017 , 08:21 AM

nick619

adept

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 1,107

You actually have the 3rd nuts as he could have 25s. There are people out there that will call 25s in the bb, so it is possible especially with a 50/2 player. Highly unlikely this dude is bluffing with an AF that low, but I'm too stubborn to fold here. I would probably make the crying call and then berate him in chat when he shows up with the nuts.

04-18-2017 , 05:44 PM

FreakDaddy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 18,042

Fold.... CR on the river by someone w/ < 1 agg, in ok sample size. I think about 2.6% of the time your fishy opponent is over valuing their hand, .7% of the time they are bluffing, and 96.7% of the time he has the nuts or close to it.

Make poker easy again.

04-19-2017 , 04:15 PM

Scott7x

adept

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 1,186

i would check the turn.. Are you really gonna get 3 streets from the T or 9 of diamonds? Also this way you can get him to bluff when he doesnt have it some of the time.

04-21-2017 , 09:19 PM

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,671

really sad fold

04-24-2017 , 11:33 PM

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by nick619

what value hand are you bet/folding if you bet/call that one 100%?
v easy bet/fold against most opponents

04-25-2017 , 12:38 AM

radiokeller

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 63

call

04-26-2017 , 08:59 AM

IClickButtons

old hand

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,613

wp if folded

04-26-2017 , 09:19 AM

DTD

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,326

I doubt you are good much more than 10% of the time there.

05-01-2017 , 02:01 PM

#10

dsuds

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 587

Fold river. I like check on turn with range as well.

...