Interesting spot, where I feel like not bluffing a river is a mistake.
Few questions.
1) What range are we checking, and then betting the river with?
2) Do we pot control Ax TP on this turn card?
3) What range do we want to value bet on this river? Thin value bet with Ax, and what sizing???
Personally I think that we can check AA, KK, weak 8x (87s 86s) and maybe the strongest flushes (QcJc QcTc) on the turn.
I think we should not keep betting Ax TP once the flush hits, but BxB would make sense. And this would be one of the bluffs we can have to balance the hands mentioned above. But what sizing?
Big for nutted hands, and ˝ pot for TP?
2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 54.94 BB (VPIP: 48.94, PFR: 29.79, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 47)
CO: 115.68 BB (VPIP: 24.55, PFR: 18.09, 3Bet Preflop: 9.26, Hands: 395)
BTN: 107.48 BB (VPIP: 25.46, PFR: 20.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.46, Hands: 504)
Hero (SB): 322 BB
BB: 334.93 BB (VPIP: 26.00, PFR: 19.59, 3Bet Preflop: 9.50, Hands: 7,197)
UTG: 195.47 BB (VPIP: 26.44, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 2.83, Hands: 272)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T
J
fold,
fold,
fold,
BTN raises to 2.5 BB,
Hero raises to 10 BB,
fold,
BTN calls 7.5 BB
Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) A
8
K
Hero bets 7 BB,
BTN calls 7 BB
Turn: (35 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks,
BTN checks
River: (35 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero ???