$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($200) 100bb
Hero (CO) ($332) 166bb
BTN ($201) 101bb
SB ($226) 113bb
BB ($206) 103bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO 9 10
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 3 folds

Flop: J 8 Q ($15, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $10, UTG calls $10

Turn: 4 ($35, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $25.25, UTG calls $25.25

River: 8 ($85.50, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $64.12, UTG goes all-in $158, Hero was kinda expecting this

villain is a reg 21/19, 64% cbet, i have 3.8k hands on him, he's one of the better regs on this site, always putting me in tough spots. as usual we fought our battles mostly in 3b pots so i have better reads about those kind of spots. he is capable of playing tricky lines to counter my aggression. in many spots where regs would be auto-betting against me, he is able to find the right spots to leave the aggression up to me.

he raises 18% from UTG+1, has a river agg. of 2.0, WWSF 52%, WTSD 31%, so i would say he is very solid in every way.

still, i have a hard time figuring out what his range might look like OTR. My coldcalling range in this spot is suited aces, suited broadways, middlish pocket pairs so this board obviously isn't great for me as i have only very few nutcombos in my range. from his point of view there should be great value in c/c his nutlike hands, i'll be betting any Qx myself and probably AJ + might be turning some pocket pairs into bluffs since i would expect him to just c/f a ton on this board. that said he could very reasonable c/c JJ, QQ, nutflushs (ATss, AKss, A2ss-A9ss = 10 combos) + 9Tss, KTss = 12 combos.

If i take a look at my callingrange vs his possible cbets there is simply not much i can call more than 2 brls with, which isn't going to bet vs a check anyway. I'm betting every TP and every decent 2nd pair in my range + some bluffs so there surely should be more value in c/c than in betting in villain's POV. But the same goes for AA/KK, especially with the combos including s so i guess we can assume that he does have at least some overpairs in his c/c range too because it's really hard to go for value when he blocks some of the combos that would call and be worse than his hand. AJ w/ A:s and TT with a :s (= 6 combos) could very well be in his c/c range too and with both kind of hands it is fairly reasonable to shove especially this river (my boat combos have been practically reduced to non-existence since i 3bet JJ+ and quads do not exist in poker). the best hand i can possibly have on the river is T9s (1combo), K high flush (1 combo KTss) or worse when he's holding the A:s and a few A high flushs if he has TT. In both cases this is a great spot to c/shove the river since my range is capped.

to sum all this up: really gross spot and i feel really exploitable OTR. Sure, if he has no calling range i shouldn't be betting if i don't intend to call a river shove but obviously i didn't know that and there are still some hands that could call and are worse (the overpairs i mentioned f.e.). the strange thing is that he kind of has a kind of 2way bet with AAx. Whereas i'm probably folding straights and small flushs, i could be calling with QJ-type hands (since i block some of the hands he might take this line with). I'm still very very uncertain about how to play the river because i only need to be good 23% of the time and given certain assumptions this could easily be given. (see equity analysis below)

Board: Js8sQs4h8h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 60.71% 57.14% 3.57% { QQ-JJ, AhAs, KdKs, TdTs, ThTs, TsTc, AKs, T9s, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc }
MP3 39.29% 35.71% 3.57% { Th9h }

Didn't read wall of text, but this looks like a pretty easy fold.

wow, are you serious? if you you are too lazy to read the text then simply don't post. there is simply no point in posting that, it doesn't help neither me nor you and you could probably learn something if you read the text and start some kind of discussion. i talked about this hand w/ some other players (most of them playing nl1k+ and having a better understanding of the game) and they couldn't really agree on whether to fold or to call, however saying that on 200NL they would prolly fold. still there is a lot more to this hand than "zOMG HE ALWAYS HAS IT" which can be valueable especially when moving up in stakes.

do me a favor and don't post if you don't have to contribute anything.

Haa, I now have 1 more post than you

fold

Great analysis. I have been thinking for a while on this hand, and can't really decide what's the best river action. Obviously calling has merits given your (imo accurate) assumption about his range. As you know it comes down to the frequency he bluff shoves here. If he's an excellent handreader and capable of putting preasure on opponents I guess a call is in order. But I don't see your average 200nl reg being that good, so this guy has to be truly exceptional for this to be a call.

Other things to consider;
What do you know about his c/c range otf + turn on drawy boards vs regs after being PFR?
Given the range you assign him otr is it a vbet?

I don't need to real all of the analysis to know this is an easy fold.

fold not close on nl200

Why would he check 3 times on a drawy board with a set or a flush OOP?
I don't think he is repping any valuehands. I'd call.

It's a tough spot, but I think I lean more towards the fold.

What was the outcome of this hand ? if you called what did he show ?

I think you are thinking about a lot of good things. I think you can bet-fold this pretty comfortably since I think you a) have a few better hands in your range to call with, quads obviously exist () and 3betting 100% w/ JJ/QQ here is prob bad so thats maybe 1 more combo. Also at least 1 combo of 44 but I would most likely have all 3 personally and def the 2 4sXx combos. b) his bluffraising freq is most likely lower than optimal anyways. Other thoughts are I think he is more likely to be slowplaying the nut flush than a set by quite a wide margin so calling w/ qj for blockers is bad and also I think he can have AsQx if he can have AsJx.

I think I prefer c/c'ing this river. As played the river looks like a fold.

thanks for the input guys.

to the rest of you who just think your one-sentence-answer has any purpose: it doesn't. in the end it's not so much about the result or the action i should be taking in this hand, it's about the thought process. i completely agree that this is a somewhat clear fold on 200NL but as i said there is more to this hand. there is a lot to learn about my range, his range, the optimal line he/we should be taking so please just do me (and yourself) a favor and don't even post if you don't have anything to contribute. i'm not looking for answers for this particular hand, i'm looking to improve my thought process and a simple "fold" doesn't help that in any way.

I think I'd bet/fold 1/2 pot on river or I'd check back, I don't quite know which one I would pick. I have to wonder if I bet big on river, what am I getting value from and what worse hands are going to call?

It's weird for him to check/call twice on that board, so by river, I'm a little suspicious.

I actually do know some aggressive players that are capable of CRAI bluff on the river with naked A of spades for instance but this is so rare. I just happened to witness it because they tried it against calling stations, snapped by sets or 2 pairs and so on.

If he did have a set on that flop, then I think his line makes sense. Or flopped nut flush might take that line also.

I'd fold river for sure.