Villain 21/15/3.8(3b)/7.0(agg) over 53 hands
Thoughts on all streets appreciated

Pretty happy to call down as played.

We beat missed flush draws and gut shots.

Only worried about 77 or QX spades, both of which he may raise on the flop, and 77 preflop.

Id call here and expect to see JT often...

But im also bad at poker

At first glance seemed like ****ty spot in the sense it feels like your beat but not especially clear by what, because most Qs check turn and 77+ typically 3bet pre in this spot.

So I thought about it and the only hand credibly he could have is Q9 (maybe Q7 if she plays it). So I call. Maybe I am wrong but I think most players are weighted more towards bluff in this spot. Additionally your range looks really capped at this point so they might think it possible just to barrel you.

Also as played villain should overbet river. That would suck for you. As it is you can just call all your aces. But a nice 3x pot on the river. That's a genuine pickle.


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i don't think you can fold here. after checking calling the Turn i guess AT is pretty much top of your range. if you are not calling AT otr what do you want to call with?
as played i would call it down. some weaker villains might showdown KQ,QJ, which they bet for "protection" ott putting you on a draw.
but i am not sure about checking the turn. if you are not double barreling here with AT, what hands do you want to double barrel here? Villian should be floating that flop pretty wide.

AT shouldn't be the top of our range when we x/c turn. We can call river with A9-

What?

A9 is counterfeited, and A9 is a clear double barrel OTT

OP, I'd double barrel OTT and x/decide rivers. AP i would call, but folding is not a mistake. It should be pretty close. His low 3b frequency means he has a lot more value than he should because a lot of aggro regs are always 3b'ing 77/AQ/Q9s/etc BB vs SB. When he bets this large, from my experience we're beat here a lot. I probably prefer a fold, but in-game I tend to station a bit in pretty close situations where neither option is a big mistake

I would bet turn here. It sucks we block some straight draws but we don't block any flush draws. You would be barrelling a lot of semi-bluffs here too. Only legit hand that beats us here that we should be worried about is AJ, but other than that there is a lot of value in betting turn. As played I would fold river and feel good about it.

Sizing on river is generally very value oriented, but don't think he should have much QX aside from Q7/Q9 and obv. lose to 77 which can also raise pre/otf. Q7 raises flop some % of time, and sizing otr is not indicative of bluff = Q9 most likely hand.

Mark villain as regfish with obvious sizings and move on.

I agree that A9 should rarely be checked OTT. Also I can read a board.

Come on now. According to your posts, you seem to know what's going on. I'm pretty sure you can see why A9-A2 (A9 and A7 particularly) make for better bluffcatchs (or possibly bluffraises).

How do people feel about x/c this flop oop?

At a small %. I think AT is just too strong to check most of the time.

Oh my bad read it as A9. But yeah ofc I agree A8- is a much better call than A10. we can just let go of A10 since we block his straight draws. A9 is a pretty mandatory barrel though

We have to x some strong hands here and AT seems like a good candidate. Do you mean too strong to not protect our equity or too strong to not get value on all streets? we're going to be left x/c the majority of turns after a flop cb and we aren't really getting much equity to fold flop right?

A10 needs to be a value bet. There are other hands we can x/c with

I agree that we have to check some strong hands and we should check AT sometimes. I think there is too much value in betting though and it's usually best to get value early in case we improve or in case the board gets ugly.

I'll run piosolver for a more definitive answer

Well, it looks like AT is about 50/50 on the flop. A9 is being bet more often probably because it doesn't block villain's calling range and has less reversed implied odds.

Also, it seems like we should call AT on the river 100% of the time and fold some A8, A6-. Not exactly sure why.