Villain is playing 27/21 with a 3-bet of 13%. I havn't gotten out of line with him yet I am playing 27/27/10 . First 3-bet I have called against him. He seems like a competent player.
On the river I am putting him on a combo type draw that is not good by the river or a scared QQ,KK,AA. I need villain to fold 46% of the time here.
UTG-$200
MP-$158
CO-$222
Button(hero)-$325
SB-$201
BB-$327

Dealt to hero AQ


UTG folds, MP folds, CO limps $2, hero raises to $9, SB folds, BB raises to $24, hero calls $13.

Flop J3T ($51)
BB checks, hero bets $27, BB calls $27

Turn 6 ($95)
BB checks, hero bids $76, BB calls $76

River 8 ($247)
BB checks, hero goes all in for $213

At 100bb I'd rather 4b pre. Your hand doesnt have to be strong when you iso, but it's going to look like AQ, suited Broadway's when you call. 150bb we can flat or 4b fold/call depending on how BB changes his squeezing.

When he checks hes either always folding or continuing so I'd prob check flop with AQ, but your sizing can def be smaller.

you are repping value hands range of some combos of JJ/33, also TT, JT, AJ.

you could be bluffing with KQ/AQ or some Axs or small pairs and connectors.

you are polarized here i dont think they expect you to bet QJ or AT on the river.

its hard to say what his range looks like to x/c flop and turn. i think he reps something like AT with this line. who knows if he can be slowplaying big hands. i usually assume they would default to cbet with big card cards.

i dont think you ever get him off QQ+ if those are in his range. whether he folds a QJ/AT type of hand is hard to say, sometimes people get stubborn feeling they induced bluffs when they take this line. some guys can fold it has a lot to do with current dynamics i think.

oops i thought the flop was JJx. I like barreling a lot less now. He can easily be pot controlling Jx Tx or a sneaky overpair. You can still bet $20 with the same results though.

Also now that you've posted your read, I think him having a combo draw is not accurate for most players, you have the Qc too.

having read it further completely changed my tune from the comment i had before.

46%, after a check on the river? 100% shove. If villain wins nh villain, but u have better than 46%

Of course if villain has a proper hand he will have almost certainly continue bet for value in this spot. There are plenty of spots where instead he may check-call for value - but never 54% of the time.