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200nl AK 2p vs river raise 200nl AK 2p vs river raise

10-19-2015 , 01:44 PM
Rather simple spot. Opponent is probably a regfish given his stats over small sample (big gap between VPIP PFR).
So would you call vs regfish? How about vs reg?
I don't know how thinly regs would raise this river, but certainly they would rep very few combos, so I think it may be a call. Some regs 3b 75s 79s, but they also slowplay sets.
I think vs regfish we have to call anyways, he has more straights since they flat BB wide, but more 2p raises are also possible. I don't know if people would randomly bluff here. Still feels like AK is too strong to fold.

partypoker - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $202.00
SB: $200.00 (VPIP: 22.92, PFR: 15.95, 3Bet Preflop: 7.88, Hands: 763)
BB: $215.23 (VPIP: 34.88, PFR: 20.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has A K

Hero raises to $4.00, fold, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($9.00, 2 players) A 8 6
BB checks, Hero bets $6.41, BB calls $6.41

Turn: ($21.82, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets $16.00, BB calls $16.00

River: ($53.82, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets $34.54, BB raises to $102.82, Hero calls $68.28
10-19-2015 , 03:12 PM
Tough spot, seems kinda too strong to fold and exploitable if we do. However it's hard to see a RegFish bluffing on the river in this spot ever, no draws missed. So it's a case of does he do this with 2 pair. To which I think the answer is no unless he's got a history betting thin, it's hard to get a call by worse with 2 pair and you have AK in your range and you've shown a lot of aggression so far.

I wouldn't say he's less likely to have 79s because some 3b it though, if the do they dont do it all the time and if you haven't observed this player do it yet he might never be. I also wouldn't remove too many set combo's either given the lack of draws there much less likely to raise these.

So cause I'm a nice guy I've run the maths on this spot. If he's raising two pair you have to call as you're good against his range 45%. But like I say i dont think a FishReg will in this spot, although by that I mean the majority, not all of this player type. So you can take this to the next level, say you estimate 40% of this player type will raise 2 pair and 60% will just c/c. Then we're good 0.4*45=16% and we need 25% so it's a fold because on average we're not good. Cant be awful calling though
10-19-2015 , 09:12 PM
gotta lose that money

more interesting thing would be do you shove or call vs his raise when you have AAA
10-19-2015 , 10:16 PM
You lose to 7 combos imo, 88/66/97cc, come up with a few combos you beat that raise like this and you can call, say if you think he raises with A5o for example, call, if not, just fold.
10-20-2015 , 12:25 AM
iwill fold the river somtimes you should give fish some respect :)
10-20-2015 , 01:21 PM
You have 43 hands on that guy he is playing 34/20 and you say he is reg fish? It is too small sample to say something like that.
River sucks. Really lost in this spot but probably calling.

Last edited by Hubedsir; 10-20-2015 at 01:28 PM.
10-22-2015 , 09:44 PM
One thing should be clarified and that is AK is a pure bluff catcher here

I think this spot is significantly under bluffed in general and we have all combos of 88\66\79 and some AA. Unless he's just spazzing you are basically hoping to see 87\89cc
10-22-2015 , 11:25 PM
I probably just call not thrilled about it.
10-23-2015 , 06:31 AM
Fold vs regfish. Would prolly only call vs capable guys. Agree we have a pure bluffcatcher, dont really see villan jamming 2 pair.

      
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