Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players


villain is relatively unknown, ~70hands 18/12 no aggression

BTN: $162.70 (162.7 bb)
SB: $46.50 (46.5 bb)
BB: $117.91 (117.9 bb)
UTG: $192.41 (192.4 bb)
Hero (MP): $162.65 (162.7 bb)
CO: $149.48 (149.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.50) 4 2 T (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero raises to $10.75, BB raises to $30, Hero

...takes a deep breath and...

I think we're lucky if we have >35% vs his flop 3b range here which includes sets and made flushes nearly always...

I hate to be results oriented, but is raising really mandatory against what appears to be a nit in this spot?

I mean, even if he tripledonks and the board bricks out, we can still rep the nut flush come river (if we want to), or we can overbetjam if he attempts to potcontrol river. I think both those lines makes his life harder than raising the flop does. He's not folding TT now, he's not folding KQhh now etc.

I just don't really see the point in raising right now, but maybe someone can convince me otherwise.

I agree I would call flop donk but as played, what do you think is best option? Is it too nitty to fold?

I think you can find a fold here against a complete nit. We're almost never ahead right now and we only have 7 outs against a flush and 11 outs against a set but he has much more flushes in his range than sets imo. Wouldn't blames you for seeing a turn though if you think he'll still pay you off if you hit the flush with the second nuts.

i think calling is fine. fold turn when he continues.
i don't think raising the flop here is that good though.

you'd fold turn against a 1/2 or 2/3 pot bet? (if we just call flop)

Board: Th 2h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.859% 65.86% 00.00% 2608 0.00 { TT, KhQh }
Hand 1: 34.141% 34.14% 00.00% 1352 0.00 { AdAh }

20/117 = 17%

However, the implied odds in this situation is complex.

If the turn card is another heart then you are only getting action from a set.

If the turn card pairs the board then you might be drawing near dead.

I really don't like chasing four flush vs nutted range in general.

So I think I would fold on flop but I would not raise flop.

It seems pretty stupid, imho, just to say he is a nit when all we have is 70 hands from the Zoom-tables. That said we have some INDICATIONS that he might be a nit. It's also fair to say that he probably isn't some crazy lagtard.

I think raising flop is by far superior given we are semi-readless. And as played obv. shove since folding now is just retarded.

I don't hate the idea og flatting flop in the first place though, but based on the info given in OP I don't think flatting flop should be std.

People are btw way to result oriented - one is even saying just autofold flop to his donklead. I mean WTF? You range CombatCarl is also extremely stupid since it's not even a range.

Let's take worst case scenario. And by that I really mean WORST CASE:

Board: 2h 4h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.954% 33.95% 00.00% 4706 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 66.046% 66.05% 00.00% 9154 0.00 { TT, 44, 22, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, 9h8h, 8h7h }

Folding as played is just the most stupid thing to do. Ever.

FYI look at this if we just add the kings with a heart:

Board: 2h 4h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.415% 44.41% 00.00% 7475 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 55.585% 55.59% 00.00% 9355 0.00 { KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, TT, 44, 22, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, 9h8h, 8h7h }

LOL

Do you realize that your range is same as mine? The nutted range is any set or any flush which means it makes no difference if it is KQhh/TT or 44/67hh. Mine was simplified but the concept is exactly same.

Don't be calling my range stupid because your range is as stupid as mine is.

LOL.

Just saw your range as TT and KhQh without looking at pct. My bad!

I do still wonder why you are thinking about calling the flop 3-bet since it doesn't make any sense in my head.

But it does matter in fact regarding combos. I think he might fold 78, 89 pre, but I obv. don't know.

WTF are you smoking?

I said I would fold vs his 3bet on flop and that I would not have raised as OP did on flop.

I even explained why I would not call the 3bet on flop, read it again.

I misread this:

"So I think I would fold on flop but I would not raise flop".