Villain was 20/15 over 4.4k hands, with a 31% SB raise 1st. He has 63% cbet, and 44% turn barrel. He has c/fed 772ss flop vs me BvB.
Are you calling 100% pre-flop?
Was i right to call my entire range on the flop? If not, what would you call with?

On the turn, if i bet do i rep any value appart from the obvious monster hands? I mean, would you bet 55 on the turn? I kind of wanted to check back and rep thin value with a river bet, but would this be a bad idea since it gives him another oppertunity to bluff?


$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $134.39 (134.4 bb)
CO: $88.66 (88.7 bb)
BTN: $339.54 (339.5 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J 6
3 folds, SB raises to $2.37, Hero calls $1.37

Flop: ($4.74) 8 2 8 (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10.74) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

River: 2 (2 players)

Given his passivity on the 772 I don't think testing his overall eagerness to win pots is bad. He did cbet this board and started with an ~30% range, so given what your assumptions of what his normal cbet ranges are you can start coming up with an idea of how many hands you should be calling. I don't think you should be calling 100% of your hands on the flop, esp if you're defending 100% pre (which I wouldn't do vs his open %). If he's always firing Ax then giving up, or he won't always go for thin value on later streets with his PP, then floating obv becomes better.

Without knowing your history or image it's hard to say, but I don't think this is necessesarily a 'if you fire once, then fire two' spot. Some dudes just will be 'tricky' here or will be passive but just too stuborn with say AQ.

As played, I think I would start betting and prob fire the river if he x/c. If we get picked off, then in the future i would only two barrel the times that we pick up good equity and float a little less often while paying attention to the boards.

I'm betting 55 close to 100% on the turn as played.

You say he opens 31% first in from SB, you have J6o for 32.55% equity vs his range.
How do you expect to make up for this loss in equity using your skill and possition? It is extremely hard if not impossible to make a profit playing like this.

You are asking if we are calling 100% preflop, this shows a complete misunderstanding of poker. Ask yourself the following questions in this spot preflop.

Step 1, his range, 31% (he is not opening enough for you to even consider defending that wide). Note that he still folds 69% of his SB (0.5bb) to you, so 69% of the time you get a free 0.5bb for +0,345 EV, if you fold 100% to his steal attempt you loose 1bb 31% of the time for -0,31. So even with folding 100% in theory, you are making a profit.

Step 2, Our advantages vs this player
- Possitional advantage? Yes
- Skill advantage? Possibly (but consider you defending J6o here, I would say NO)
- Card advantage? Equity wise we have 32.55% this is horrible

So you see we are setting us up for disasted calling pre with such a weak hand, when our opponent is openraising 31% here. If you flat hands like J6o, what is your plan, where do you expect to make money from. This is bleeding money.

doesn't the fact that he almost minraised make the preflop call less horrible (we need to win less than 30% to call)

for instance if he cbets 70%, and we always fold, and when he doesn't cbet he c/f, we're be right?

Yeah sure, but J6o?

And what about all those times he cbets boards and we have to fold, I mean what kind of board can we really profitable float with J6o, which big pot do we actually scoop with J6o. Do we float boards like 828r, because we expect him to cbet 100%, with J6o, even his bluffs are often value bets then (Q high, K high), what do we do when he barrels std barrel cards like Q/K/A, do we call again caus we expect him to barrel 100% here, with J high?

The point being is, our equity is horrible with J6o. Imagine what would happen even if this regular caughts up on the fact that we defend so super wide here? He can value bet so extremely wide here, defending J6o makes our range so weak, that there is just no way that you can defend defending J6o here.

Sure technically in a vacuum if he would cbet 70% and we fold and we bet 30% of the time and he folds, we would breakeven if we need to win 30% with rake deducted. But this doesn't account for all other factors like this guy picking up on the fact that we defend so super wide, all frequencies will change once he notices that (and even for a bad regular this won't be that long, if you really want to defend that wide). And this also is based on the fact that we are expected to play perfectly postflop, how many barrels will we call if we hit top pair? Imagine all the times we own ourselves with a weak value hand once we hit something, all those times add up to a very unprofitable situation.

It's not a minraise.

@RG
The power of position is using it to our advantage by exploiting our villains weaknesses. Keep it simple, it seems like you're talking yourself in circles a little. In this case we have evidence that suggests this villain seemingly gave up unprovoked in another very similar instance. Its true that this was just one hand, but today's modern reg will often play situations 'standardly', which imo gives the advantage to OP in the immediate future of this hand, while also providing us more insight that we can uitilize in the future.

Sure that is true, but that means that he has to give up unprovoked enough to make up for the times that we own ourselves when we hit and start getting into spots with very marginal holdings.

And it doesn't account like I said for if he picks up on it, and if he starts x/r etc. There are just so many more factors to the whole situation, than just saying we have possition, he gave up unprovoked in a certain spot before so we can basically call with any type of hand and completely disregard our equity vs his range.

If you find out someone's weaknesses you can't go overadjusting to exploit his weaknesses by calling hands so weak, this will set you up for a lot of spots where you could possibly lose a lot of money once opponents get a slight clue of what you are doing.

Villain x/f bvb on 772 is noteworthy to the point that it was more likely reflective of an area of weakness than a randomly 'misplayed' hand. Now on 882 bvb he cbets; we can have our Ax and mid PP which would all seem like easy calls right? But to use your argument, what if he bets again, where do these hands stand now compared to our other pure 'air' hands? Ofc our perception of villains weakness gives a little more value to showdownable hands (b/c we get to SD cheaply), but then if we're only calling these hands on the flop, we're not even beginning to take full advantage of his weakness.

I'm acting as if this is the second time we've been in this circumstance. Its just weird to think that this type of player would x/r the turn as a bluff or would have any legit reason to do it for value; and we can assume that he's not a real thin value better by design. There just aren't a lot of hands he can comfortably bet again on the turn. Talking about unknown factors, this guy might level himself into giving us a lot of credit when we flat the flop or he might not have a lot of heart on these particular boards for abc and xyz reasons.

imo villain playing weakly on an upcoming street is more likely than us getting barreled because of some adjustment that villain made to his having x/folded before. These positions and this board vs this villain is just a good spot to be in, period. Note, I'm not saying that J6o is a snap anything, just that we need to recognize game dynamics before we start deciding what to do with our hand.

I agree with everything you said here, however i think J6o needs to be a snap fold preflop, I dont think 1 noteworthy showdown of him x/f 772r in a BvB situation changes that plan at all.

If someone posts this hand where he defends J6o vs a 31% opener, and floats a dryboard like 828 while the guy x/f 772 in the past, he's definately not the guy to even consider defending super wide, so that should be the overall main advice in a thread like this in my opinion. Sure this is a good spot to be in vs this villain, but we can't know this type of board comes up when we make the decision to defend with J6o. This guy is still cbetting 63%, i doubt after that one hand we can say he's that incredibly weak per default. My main problem starts preflop with choosing a range to defend with, my problem gets bigger when we decided to float that spot tho, specially vs a regular, when even a weak regular will pick up on the fact that you defend so super wide.

You say we need to recognize game dynamics before we start deciding to do with our hand, sure thats true. But what kind of dynamics are you looking for to start defending J6o BvB vs a regular, and do you think 1 instance where he x/f 772 BvB gives us this dynamic?