I timed down and called, but wanted to fold. I couldn't see any VB's I beat at all, and only turning hands like TJ into bluffs, maybe playing a bad KJ, and splits, I couldn't see much that made sense.

Obviously I expect sets to raise at some point here. So T9/89 made the most sense. The main reason I called is because he almost timed out before betting, and he was 22/9 (only 24 hands). Thoughts?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database

NL Holdem $1(BB)
MP ($80.75)
MP ($169.3)
HERO ($100)
CO ($33)
BTN ($187.61)
SB ($131.05)
BB ($175.5)
UTG ($54.21)
EP ($33.3)

Dealt to Hero Q J

UTG Folds, EP Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: 32.3), MP Folds, MP Folds, HERO Raises To $4 (Rem. Stack: 96), CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $3 (Rem. Stack: 171.5), EP Calls $3 (Rem. Stack: 29.3)

Flop ($12.5) T 9 8
BB Checks, EP Checks, HERO Bets $9 (Rem. Stack: 87), BB Calls $9 (Rem. Stack: 162.5), EP Folds

Turn ($30.5) T 9 8 2
BB Checks, HERO Bets $21 (Rem. Stack: 66), BB Calls $21 (Rem. Stack: 141.5)

River ($72.5) T 9 8 2 9
BB Bets $50 (Rem. Stack: 91.5), HERO Calls $50 (Rem. Stack: 16)

BB shows A J

HERO wins $168.5

He could be bluffing with AJo.

You funny...

Well we cant fold. We have some diamond bluffs we have to fold on this runout, maybe T8s that got counterfeited OTR. I dont know how you play your overpairs, but you probably have to fold most of the ones you choose to double barrel with as well.

You beat the dummy end of the straight, random spaz bluffs, hands turned into bluffs, Jx, chop with QJ, backdoor diamonds. Near the top of your range, cant really fold

Top of my range doesn't matter much when there's not really many bluffs that make sense and zero worse VB's. If I add in T8s 100%, then it's a clear call. Otherwise it's pretty close to break even call/fold. I just punched it in and I have ~ 31% and I'm getting 2.4:1. So it's pretty close. I wasn't expecting this guy to bluff very often in this spot, so I'm being generous in his bluffing range.

Not considering bluffs and just looking at potential chops and 67s in villain's range I would think it's a call.

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You think he c/c's twice and then pounds the river w/ 67s? Maybe 6d7d.

On a range of KJs-QJs, TT, T9-98, I'm at 25% on the river. Add in TJ that he turns into a bluff 100% of the time, it goes up to 33%. Remove TJ, just keep KJ, and add in Td8d that he turns into a bluff, we're at 29%.

And I really didn't expect this guy who was at 22/9 w/ 22% agg to have too many bluffs. I think I'm giving him too many as is. I guess I just need to say I'm near the top of my range and just call, but this seems like maybe a narrow fold or neutral.

This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
Board: Th 9d 8s 2d 9s


Equity Win Tie Hand Range

29.4118% 23.5294% 5.8824% [ QsJc ]

70.5882% 64.7059% 5.8824% [ KJs(100), QJs(100), TT(100), T9s(100), TD8D(100), T9o(100), 98s(100) ]

I was counting all combos of QJ.

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Yeah, it's still super close. It really depends on how many bluffs for a 22/9 22% agg guy I'm adding in.

This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
Board: Th 9d 8s 2d 9s


Equity Win Tie Hand Range

29.5455% 9.0909% 20.4545% [ QsJc ]

70.4545% 50% 20.4545% [ QJs(100), QJo(100), TT(100), T9s(100), TD8D(100), T9o(100), 98s(100), 7D6D(100) ]


This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
Board: Th 9d 8s 2d 9s


Equity Win Tie Hand Range

33.1897% 13.7931% 19.3966% [ QsJc ]

66.8103% 47.4138% 19.3966% [ KJs(40),QJs(100), QJo(100), TT(100), T9s(100), TD8D(100), T9o(100), 98s(100), 7D6D(100) ]

Any merit to using his HUD stats after only 24 hands?

Certainly not to the depth that freak daddy is, and imagine this is bovada, so gl.

When you identify your range as a SB iso and their range as a limp call, maybe you should have thought earlier about your whole range vs theirs on that board and how to take most advantage of that with such a GIN hand compared to your range which wants to play mostly pot control/fold on that board vs a limping range

BB was the villain in the hand. Also we're last to act on the flop and both villains check to us. No way are we doing anything but betting there even if our range is at a disadvantage on this board.

lol ignore what i said, i missed its BB...i meant if villain was the ep limper we should go check/call flop check/jam turn but obv not relevant...

The hand would be more interesting if villian was a known reg, I think vs a relatively unknown it's just a call.

We're playing a game of incomplete information, and so you use what you can to create a profile based on the info you have.

How many decent regs have you seen that are 22/9 after 15 hands... 20 hands? So we know something.

Agg% low, coupled with passive pre-flop stats, to me = probably a passive player. That doesn't mean I'm saying he's 100% X or Y.. but I'm playing the likelihood game correct?

Any ways, I agree it's a call after looking at it more of course, but it's closer than I believe people think. nuff said.

Yeah. Some idiots might even play a J9 or 97s like this, I would at least include this at some low freq.

OP, how is T8s becoming a bluff for OOP otr? That makes no sense, it has a significant amount of sdv when riv goes x/x. Also think 100% of T9o in V's range is pretty unrealistic preflop.

I do agree in general V lacks bluffs and that range analysis aside, this line is just the nuts a lot ime. Not a fold though.

I think it's a call. Top set of 10's that rivered the boat should be pretty heavily discounted. There's no way he has all combos of T9o preflop. QJ raises at some point before river. Break even point is something like bluffing 25% of AJ combos since he gets to river with all of them.

Of course there's merit. Some information is better than no information. You just have to interpret the information correctly and that's where a lot of people make mistakes.

snap, top of the range, boats would likely c/r the river as played etc.