BTN is 31/24/8 43% fold to cbet, 0 % fold to 2 barrel.
I should probably bet bigger ott, but otr is this a reasonable spot to x/c? I feel like he will probably bet all his air here (which may be a wrong assumption?) and also very few Kc in his range.


PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $116.18
SB: $14.53
BB: $141.41
UTG: $100.00
Hero (MP): $107.00
CO: $111.87

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 5 6

fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, BTN calls $3.00, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) A 9 2
Hero bets $5.00, BTN calls $5.00

Turn: ($17.50, 2 players) 4
Hero bets $11.00, BTN calls $11.00

River: ($39.50, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets $30.00

What air is he supposed to have here ?

Sorry by air I meant non flushes.

I'd muck that preflop on MP. I'd consider raising it on CO but that's about it.

As played, river seems like a fold to me vs this villain but calling is not terrible.

I think i would fold river, he can have AKc AQc some KQcc KTcc QTcc
He might not always turn Ax into a bluff, and i assume he would fold
his like 98s 9Ts hands on the turn.

gonna need some more relevant information about this guy before i can really say if i like it or not

mostly worried about AxQc, and his sizing with this hand is probably good considering you have a whole range of bluffcatchers and he struggles to have many good hands. can he have AxKc or KcQc iyo? anything youve seen to indicate he wouldn't 3bet AK, blinds squeeze happy, you perceived as/actually are quite tight from ep (seems unlikely given youre opening this)

also, any instincts on how thinking/aggro/fancy he is? as far as hands he can have as bluffs, i think youre struggling because most of his non Ax hands that call the turn include a club. he almost definitely won't bluff AJ i'd have thought, so we're trying to bluffcatch AT no club almost exclusively, maybe TT no club which he might fold a fair amount on the turn? (again don't see why he'd bluff JJ no club if he calls that)

I think we are leveling ourselves if we x/c river here, because I can't really see many bluffs in his range, and I doubt he would turn hands like Ax into one. So his range for calling a double barrel and betting this river seems very strong to me, considering his sizing as well I don't like calling otr here.

Also folding this hand in MP unless you have some really easy targets behind you, but this BTN guy will probably make our life hard in a decent amount of situations.

Hmm well imo he deffo wouldn't have AxKc blinds weren't at all squeeze happy.
Yeah I think my main point in wanting to hero was just the lack of flush combos I could see in his range, given my hand and the board. But yeah maybe I'm being overly optomistic in hoping he turns a lot of his sd value into a bluff here.

i'd fold pre unless weak opponents are in the blinds. As played river is a ch/f, he's likely to check back with TP and alot of his turn call range include flushes and Ax