Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($96.05)
BB ($28)
Hero ($112)
UTG+1 ($105)
CO ($104)
BTN ($100)

Dealt to Hero A 6

Hero raises to $3, fold, fold, BTN calls $3, fold, BB calls $2

FLOP ($9.50) 9 T 5

BB checks, Hero bets $7, BTN raises to $20,

Villain plays 24/20 with a 10% 3-bet over 1.3k hands. He calls 9% on the button. He plays very aggressively postflop and has a 23% raise flop, though presumably his bluffing frequency should be low in this spot because I'm utg and there's a shortstacked fish in the blinds (I dislike my open on reflection).

3-bet the flop or call?

I fold flop. I think he never has pure bluffs here. His range includes monsters or realy strong draws, so you have little equity vs his range

we dominate a lot of his semi bluffing hands

correct me if im wrong but dont we have proper odds to see a turn?

If he really has 23pc raise flop then he's raise / folding and raise calling with dominated draws to make jamming flop profitable. Calling with draws oop sucks so I prefer to 3b or fold oop.

this /\

i vote 3b get it in

i like it

I like the idea of 3betting the flop but to what amount? What if on the off chance he flats and a brick hits the turn?

lmfao wow how can we do anything but get it in on this flop. Raise to $45 gives him room to reshove worse flushes and draws. If he flats our raise then play poker.

Isn't he likely to be stronger than usual in this spot? I'm cbetting 3-ways from UTG with a shortstacked fish in the pot, on a board that should hit the fish's range. Agreed, I can get him to felt QsJs/KsQs type stuff but I doubt we have much fold equity.

I agree, i don't like getting it in here. I think we may be able to call though..
We are offered 26%, and need 18% to see 1 card. If we hit turn he stacks off with 3-4 combo draws and checks back his 2pair/sets..
I rly doubt he raises any complete air here.

He only calls 9% on the button. A regs calling range vs an utg open will be mostly comprised of pairs so I doubt he has many combo draw type hands. I'd just fold.

I think this type of player gives you license to spew, a little, in attempt to figure him out.

I don't mind a 3b or call or call x/r. If you had a smaller sample, but he was obv raising a lot of cbets, with the nfd I would start off by 3b and see if he stops raising our cbets. If he doesn't slow down then the idea of calling oop is less bad, imo.

Is there a separate stat for calling UTG opens on the BTN?

a pretty tight raise/calling range looks like:


Board: Td 9s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.222% 62.22% 00.00% 9856 0.00 { TT-99, 55, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, T9s, 8s7s }
Hand 1: 37.778% 37.78% 00.00% 5984 0.00 { As6s }


with our pot equity we need at least 30% fold equity on a flop 3bet. if villain is quite aggro and raises a lot of cbets, i think we do get a fair amount of folds here and he also might even stack wider than the above range, which both help us.

close your eyes and snap all in