Villain was 58/26 over 43 hands. I saw him 3bet K9o OOP to 12bb.
I didn't feel like i had much FE on the turn.
How would you play turn and river?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

MP: $153.84 (153.8 bb)
CO: $113.28 (113.3 bb)
BTN: $107.21 (107.2 bb)
SB: $93.92 (93.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $48.75 (48.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K T
UTG calls $1, 4 folds, Hero raises to $4, UTG calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) A Q 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.37, UTG calls $6.37

Turn: ($21.24) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($21.24) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero folds

Agree I think. He has to fold pretty damn often for bet/calling the turn to be better than checking back and realising our equity.

Looks good.

thoughts on crai otf?

bet turn, and its not even close imo

Oh crap, thought we had position. Errr..

This is not good, bet the turn. Even if were IP its an easy turn bet villain probably has to fold 1/10th of the time for it to be better than checking.

The fish deff has 6x KJ KT 77-99 all in his range and will fold them to a turn bet.

This.

You guys have to realize that due to our equity, we hardly ever need him to fold in order to make this profitable. Also, by betting we can get value from worse flush draws.

As played, I'm calling the river bet since he can very easily have a busted fd and we're getting such a good price.

OOP it's trickier and I prefer a bet, but if we had position I think there'd be a strong argument for checking back. We're not looking at the profitability of betting in a vacuum, we're comparing it to the profitability of checking back and realising our equity. If hit one of our 12 outs we win the $21.24 in the pot and should win a decent part of his stack when he has an A/Q/clubs. For bet/calling to be better, he has to fold a lot to make up for the times we bet/call off $38 with a 25% equity hand when we could checked back and lost nothing.

He will fold alot though, so i think its better to bet ip. Also considering villains stack size its not unlikely that he folds a weak queen because we are threatening his stack.
I just think were getting more folds on the turn than you guys think.

Say for a moment we had position and the option of checking back. Also let's be generous and say he folds 50% of the time and check-shoves the other 50%. If he checkshoves we have ~25% equity against his range. Here's what we win if we bet/call:

50% of the time we win 21.24 = 10.62
12.5% of the time we win 59.62 = 7.45
37.5% of the time we lose 38.38 = -14.39

= $3.68

If we check back, we hit one of our outs ~1/4 of the time. A quarter of the current pot = $5.31, so we win more by checking back, even before taking implied odds into account.


(I may have screwed up the math on this, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

Betting turn in position is way better than checking.

Yah you don't take into account hte times that villain bids and pushes us off our hand. Also we hit 20% of the time.

Im in the bidding camp.

I do. The above acknowledges that we're sometimes folding the best hand when we check back and he bets the river.

Also 12 outs from 46 unseen cards = 12/46 = 26% isn't it? We have a gutter too.

http://www.bluefirepoker.com/articles/hidden-ev/

Seems relevant.