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100NL - fold river? 100NL - fold river?

02-21-2017 , 06:05 PM
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37644767

BTN: $147.73 (147.7 bb)
Hero (SB): $148.64 (148.6 bb)
BB: $63.01 (63 bb)
UTG: $280.47 (280.5 bb)
MP: $333.50 (333.5 bb)
CO: $125.22 (125.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
2 folds, CO raises to $2, BTN raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, BTN calls $12

Flop: ($39) 6 T Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $22, Hero calls $22

Turn: ($83) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $33, Hero calls $33

River: ($149) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $74.73...
02-21-2017 , 06:48 PM
4b pre too big. This is just an annoying spot. This is literally the best hand you can have besides aces, but I don't know if he's ever just bluffing here often enough. Do you have any reads on what his 3-bet range vs CO looks like and his pfr/vpip are?

I would probably call pretty fast if the river weren't a 9. He can reasonably peel with KJs, although imo that's too loose vs a cold 4-bet. He could have 99 trying to get you off JJ/KK/AA and rivered a full house as well. I've had a similar situation where I was super deep and got bluffed off AA on a crappy runout OOP in a 4-bet pot, and he showed 1010 for a bluff haha
02-22-2017 , 12:48 AM
Easy value bet on the flop. As played I would fold, can't find enough bluffing hands there.
02-22-2017 , 05:58 AM
I think it would be very hard to balance your cbet range here if you're checking a hand like AQ on this flop unless you're going to check almost everything. As played the bet sizing seems strange from villain but if he's decent he should have some bluffs like AJ, 89s, J9s, AK?? And for value 78s, QTs, KJs, TT, (I don't think Tx should be betting this flop but it might.) I'd expect bigger sizes on either turn or river with pretty much all those hands though. Without having any stats on villain I think I'd have to make a crying call due to all that.

Edit: didn't notice the stacks.. So turn set up for a half pot shove on river. Unless someone can prove against a cb here I think that's the one mistake this hand

Last edited by cashtorg; 02-22-2017 at 06:07 AM.
02-22-2017 , 06:28 AM
smaller on the flop

as played I'd shove turn

as played I'd fold river
02-22-2017 , 06:30 AM
I like a check here with most of our range since we have a range disadvantage. We pretty much never have 66/1010/QTs while he does + QQ. We wouldn't bluff AK here, so a check is pretty good. We can't get three streets, so we can just x flop and bet turn/river and make it look like we have AK
02-22-2017 , 06:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
I like a check here with most of our range since we have a range disadvantage. We pretty much never have 66/1010/QTs while he does + QQ. We wouldn't bluff AK here, so a check is pretty good. We can't get three streets, so we can just x flop and bet turn/river and make it look like we have AK
Disagree with pretty much all of this. We have a pretty big range advantage due to preflop. TT and QTs should be in our range if we don't have a calling range pre. We should bet AK a lot on the flop and we can get 3 streets with AsQs on some run outs.
02-22-2017 , 08:17 AM
Check raise all in on turn is surely best as you have a bunch of outs on the occasions you're called. (Unless it's by exactly 10s or Qs which is pretty unlikely given there is only 1 combo of each.)

Also as an aside no-one should have Q10 in their range here, whilst cold 4betting 6s is mildly absurd imo.


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02-22-2017 , 08:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sesh_bot
Also as an aside no-one should have Q10 in their range here
Why not?
02-22-2017 , 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ojune
Why not?


Personally I think it's not a good hand to cold 4bet bluff. And whilst you could call in position, the kind of flops you smash are the kind of flops villain should be able to get away from this deep, so probably when you do win you don't win enough to counter all the times you just have to fold.


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02-22-2017 , 08:43 AM
So what hands do you 4bet bluff with? Assuming you 4bet/call AK,JJ+, you need to find around 40 combos of bluffs. I'm pretty sure we can put some QTs in there.
02-22-2017 , 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ojune
So what hands do you 4bet bluff with? Assuming you 4bet/call AK,JJ+, you need to find around 40 combos of bluffs. I'm pretty sure we can put some QTs in there.


We can and I guess it personal preference as well as situational, but in a vacuum I'd prefer things that have better blockers rather than cards that block the 3betters bluffing range. We're multi-way and generally people play more straightforward in these situations. Another option is to use hands that play easier post flop. Even if flop comes QJ10, if villain starts going mental we need to be worried in a 4bet pot.

Also I don't think we should be auto 4betting all of the above. Sometimes it's nice to flat and invite a 4bet from the original raiser as well as protect hands such as 9s and Js when we flat them.


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02-22-2017 , 09:13 AM
Yeah, I actually have no idea what preflop strategy is optimal. Does anyone? Interested in discussing this over skype if you think one strategy > the other.

For now I opted for simplicity by never flatting but it might be best to have a flatting range. Much harder to balance but not too hard.

In the event we decide to play flat & 4bet, QTs should probably be folded close to 100%.
02-22-2017 , 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
4b pre too big. This is just an annoying spot. This is literally the best hand you can have besides aces, but I don't know if he's ever just bluffing here often enough. Do you have any reads on what his 3-bet range vs CO looks like and his pfr/vpip are?

I would probably call pretty fast if the river weren't a 9. He can reasonably peel with KJs, although imo that's too loose vs a cold 4-bet. He could have 99 trying to get you off JJ/KK/AA and rivered a full house as well. I've had a similar situation where I was super deep and got bluffed off AA on a crappy runout OOP in a 4-bet pot, and he showed 1010 for a bluff haha
Im surprised to hear you think the 4b pre was too big, I was personally thinking it was too small with the effective stack depth. Although in this particular hand my 4b sizing was basically irrelevant as I eventually called the river jam and he had a well played AA.

Ill try and repost the hand later complete with player stats to get a better handle on his range in this hand. I initially thought it was AA/KK when he made the river shove, then I quickly talked myself out of it and paid him off
02-22-2017 , 09:37 AM
I also think the 4bet is on the bigger side but what do I know
02-22-2017 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ojune
Yeah, I actually have no idea what preflop strategy is optimal. Does anyone? Interested in discussing this over skype if you think one strategy > the other.
Unless co and btn have some specific frequencies pre and post, I wouldn't like a cold call strategy. Never calling surely isn't optimal but it's easier and waay better than never raising and I don't think it's close.

I would be pretty impressed if I saw a near pure call strategy that's balanced here though so I dont hate it

Not sure if that's what you were asking, obv a mixed strategy is going to be best
02-22-2017 , 03:20 PM
    Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37649238

    BTN: $147.73 (147.7 bb)
    Hero (SB): $148.64 (148.6 bb)
    BB: $63.01 (63 bb)
    UTG: $280.47 (280.5 bb)
    MP: $333.50 (333.5 bb)
    CO: $125.22 (125.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
    2 folds, CO raises to $2, BTN raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, BTN calls $12

    Flop: ($39) 6 T Q (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $22, Hero calls $22

    Turn: ($83) T (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $33, Hero calls $33

    River: ($149) 9 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $74.73, Hero calls $74.73

    Spoiler:
    Results: $298.46 pot ($2.50 rake)
    Final Board: 6 T Q T 9
    BTN showed A A and won $295.96 ($148.23 net)
    Hero showed A Q and lost (-$147.73 net)



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    Last edited by ElbaDaernu; 02-22-2017 at 03:22 PM. Reason: Tried to get HH to display stats too but didnt seem to work
    02-22-2017 , 03:40 PM
    AA and KK make some sense too lol, I originally misread the hand and thought u were the original raiser.

    It's hard to come up with a calling range for you unless you're 4b with some KJs, so AQ seems like a fairly efficient call if villain bluffs a correct amount (but that's usually not the case)

    Last edited by cashtorg; 02-22-2017 at 03:46 PM.
    02-22-2017 , 06:55 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ojune
    Disagree with pretty much all of this. We have a pretty big range advantage due to preflop. TT and QTs should be in our range if we don't have a calling range pre. We should bet AK a lot on the flop and we can get 3 streets with AsQs on some run outs.
    Yeah I disagree with all of this.
    02-22-2017 , 09:25 PM
    i like the 4 bet pre and sizing (stacksizes)

    as played i also couldnt find a fold.

    but folding is the clue, well balanced turn bet from villain to prepare a river shove..... suxx
    02-22-2017 , 09:46 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Minatorr
    Yeah I disagree with all of this.
    Why?

          
    m