$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

MP: $89.74 (89.7 bb)
CO: $120.54 (120.5 bb)
BTN: $35.50 (35.5 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $112.42 (112.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4 2
UTG calls $1, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($2.50) 5 4 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1.45, UTG calls $1.45

Turn: ($5.40) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, UTG calls $4.50

River: ($14.40) 6 (2 players)
Hero?

Villain was unknown rec player.
I was a bit confused on river about bet sizing. I think villain will call an overbet with a Q often. But he prob calls a normal sized bet with pocket pairs, and there are a few 6x hands completed on the river also. However I think there is probably twice as many Qx combos as lower pairs. I doubt checking to induce from draws is better here on this card(or any card really), but if you think so, let me know.
So what size would you make it?

he is going to bet Qx alot of the time, and may stab with missed draws, i go for a c-r.

Importantly his bluff bet size < his call bet size.


I just bet $9.55

agree with that, but if we add up his qx combos and missed draw combos (Bluffs) that he bets on the river, its going to be more then just the Qx combos that he calls a river bet with.

I dont know what the theory or math behind that would be to decide whats more optimal .

c/r small on the river, if he has a queen he may bet it himself, and if he had a missed draw he may be obliged to bet, the only hand we lose value to by checking is a 5, and a scared Q.

Just betting $8.50-$9.50 for value.

check raise accomplishes little he folds air and Qx so you should check call if that's the line your taking to bluff catch. If you check raise river only better 4x and strait call and obv fh jams. Double barrel followed by a check raise on the river is super strong.

Thnx guys.
I didn't consider he would bet a Q(not because i didn't think he would, just didn't occur to me at the time for some reason).
Though i do remember times when they checked back toppair.
I guess checking isn't such a bad option then, what sizing would you make it if he bet say 1/2pot($7)?

At a guess id say his range looks something like this:
Qx: KQ-Q8, Q7s-Q2s=73c
Lower pairs: 99-66(24c) A6h-96h 86s 76 63s(23c) A5 K5s J5s T5s 95s 85s 75s 65s 53s(36c)=83c
Missed draws(FD/A3 A2): 48c
+a few hands that beat us.

But no idea on what the guy's bluffing frequency would be on the river, so i couldn't say either.

I assume this means the re-raise on the river, what do you hope to accomplish by check raising fold his air and Qx ?

firstly how do you know if this fish (i take he is fish seeing that he limped) will fold top pair to a re-raise? all we know for sure is that he will never re raise with a Q if we lead out on the river and he will likely fold his missed draws. IMO his range is q/draw heavy so i think c/r is the way to get max value, because we get value from his bluffs and likely to get a crying call with a Q.

if villain fired a near pot like $10 bet i would just raise little over min-raise (2.5x maybe) to have a good chance of getting called by a Q.

I just think fps opens your hand up for trouble Qx would be an awfull call to a rerasie even if you can have a missed fd a small % of the time you just wont have it often enough to make his call profitable.I would just keep betting.

If i were to check it would be to snap off a bluff and take notes what he limped and called down with.

But horses for courses i guess.

I like betting $9 since we don't know if he'll check back with showdown value or b/c Qx. Yes we don't allow him to bet missed fd's but that's only one part of his range. I think he'll have a pair by the river more often than a fd.

I think it must be close between betting $9 and check-raising to like 3.5x his bet.
I think i slightly prefer just betting because he may check back some of his Qx hands.
Thnx for all replys.

I ended up betting $18 and he folded.

12$, reasonably quick bet. Stopping for better sizing OTR is bad imo we want to keep him in autocalldown mode.

Would he really bet Qx on the river if it's checked to villain? What would call him?

I would bet about 11$ here, I don't think this is a good spot for an overbet.