$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

BTN: $112.01 (112 bb)
Hero (SB): $106.58 (106.6 bb)
BB: $125.73 (125.7 bb)
UTG: $190.35 (190.4 bb)
MP: $219.28 (219.3 bb)
CO: $106.96 (107 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A J
4 folds, Hero raises to $4, BB raises to $9.50, Hero raises to $23, BB calls $13.50

Flop: ($46) 4 9 8 (2 players)
Hero?

Turn: 6 (2 players)


River: K (2 players)


Villain was 30/24 over 1.6k hands. His stats say 10% 3bet, but 24% BvB. I am making it 4x and opening a tight range to exploit this.
I saw him flat AKo OOP vs a 3bet in an uncommon 3bet bluff spot, like CO vs UT or something, does this make it more likely for villain to show up with broadway type stuff flatting a 4bet?
He also cold called QQ in SB vs my MP pfr.
I saw him 3bet KJo SB vs CO reg who had 74% fold to 3bet, and he checked it down on Q33r Qs 4. He also called 89s IP vs a 3bet and checked it down on KQJr Kd Q, so he might be on the passive side post-flop as caller.
His fold to cbet is 43%. He is very aggro as pfr, cbets 64% and barrels very thin value/merge on turn as well as lots of bluffs(stats say 64% turn barrel). Saw him bet pot on flop turn and river with Qs8d on 478ss 2s 5 vs a reg.

I just wondered, if u see someone call pre with AQ, how many streets would you think it takes to fold them off it?/how many streets would you bet?

Would you automatically put AQ in someone's range here? I would have expected someone who 3bets so often to shove AQo and wider... but i guess if he can flat and make more money, it's the best play?

He always 3bets this small i think.

Opening to 4x is only good if it doesn't change his calling/3betting frequencies. I don't know this guy but most people play tighter against 4x open. I don't like the 4bet preflop, it allows him to play pretty well against our hand unless he's capable of 5bjamming as a bluff. I'd just call with the intention of not folding much postflop.

Not sure about the 4x open, but I'm not 4b-ing this guy(pretty much ever for value unless I have additional information about his postfloptendecies and his continuation-range against 4bets.

I'd open to 3x preflop. I'd fold > 4bet > flat preflop

As played, I'd cbet 1/4 -1/3 pot and see what he does.

Question is if we should bet/call or x/rai on flop I guess, I think we have the best hand often enough for sure.

Thnx for replying.

Wow, i was considering betting and giving up to any action, or just giving up..
Why do you think we are so far ahead?

You're welcome.

If we look at his range, better aces and 99+ are probably jamming preflop, maybe he even jams any pair of he continues with them. It leaves him with a lot of suited connectors that have gutshots and bdfds on this board, that lose to A high and really have no showdown value, so he has to bluff them at some point. Sure he has 98s or a set every now and then, or slowplayed KK+, but in general I think we're doing well here.

Don't really like the 4b

Agree with never really 4 betting this villian, and calling the 3bet sucks aswell, so i guess folding cant be that bad, as played i would cbet, for value as we have the best hand here alot

r/r > 4b > r/c pre.

as played b/f something like 18$

That makes sense, thanks.

I don't get why everyones saying they don't 4bet. I can see flatting being more +EV if his 24% 3bet BvB stat is accurate(which it prob is close to over this sample), even with my meager OOP skills. But i don't think folding to the 3bet is an option, im printing money 4betting here. Perhaps i should have flat called.

definetly dont fold to the 3bet lol, you're oop so i probably 4bet

riske is giving great advice here, everyone else is just so weaktight

lol, what? decision is between call and 4b. folding here given info is absurd

as far as postflop, you're still just slinging money in there. not saying this isn't a b/c, but you should be thinking before you do anything

You're welcome. I'm trying to get back into poker as of now so it helps me too to think about this stuff again.

Fwiw I like the 4-bet, would probably call if he shipped also.

4b/call AJo at 100nl vs almost anyone even BvB is probably not going to show a profit.