Ignition Zone hand where I'm a little stumped on coming up with a plan OTF. This could be a call or 3b pre for me, might prefer 3b sizing at 7bb as played. I guess I prefer betting flop and turn. I'm thinking QT KT 89 JQ JK AQ and a couple of others call vbet and some of those call blank turn too, but for some reason feeling vulnerable/ exploitable when betting here. I guess because I only feel confident leading very polarized here and AJ feels thin.

Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1) - Ignition Zone

Table '#875' 6-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: UTGplus2 ($107.57 in chips)
Seat 2: Dealer ($162.60 in chips)
Seat 3: Small Blind ($117.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($123.16 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG ($232.59 in chips)
Seat 6: UTGplus1 ($72.01 in chips)

SB: posts small blind $0.50
Hero: posts big blind $1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Js As]

UTG: folds
UTGplus1: folds
UTGplus2: folds
Dealer: raises $2 to $2
Small Blind: folds
Hero: raises $7 to $8
Dealer: calls $6

*** FLOP *** [Th 9s Jc]

What are you thinking OTF? If you were in Villian's seat OTF, how often do you raise a cbet with 22-77, air or what other hands? KT or KJ?

c-bet is fine here, we have tptk, backdoor spade draw. Villain is much more likely to flat all his Qx hands or hands like T8s or 98s or J8s here. If is raising, it's a nutted hand every time since he can have so many of them.

so if villain is aggro in this spot (raising nutted hands+lots of semi-bluffs), is it better for us to check a large chunk of our range?

check flop. we're not trying to blow this pot up.

Interesting spot. Not really sure of the best play but I'll let you know my approach and logic behind it so hopefully we can start breaking this situation down.

I'm leaning toward check for pot control and to avoid being bluff raised (which puts us in a really tough spot going forward). I don't I think it's realistic to get 3 streets of value from a worse hand so we don't give up much by checking, plus he may bluff some air hands that would have just folded to a flop cbet. Also, I don't mind seeing a turn card as we have 14 cards that could improve our equity. We can see what comes, re-evaluate, and usually play pretty well on the last two streets.

BTW , i think Villian has a range advantage OTF so checking some strong hands like this will protect our checking range and could be part of a good overall strategy, not that this matters much in anonymous zoom.

To answer your other question, I don't think Villian normally bluff raises any of the hands you mentioned. I think something like AQ would be more of a bluff raising hand that I'd expect V to have.

Ya gut says chk because I hate getting raised and continuing, but all the while he can flat with plenty of worse. Good to see a few mixed comments, thanks. Imagining a neutral runout, the 3 variant lines I come up with are all a wash... 1) chk/call chk/call chk/fold. 2) chk, bet, bet. 3) bet, bet, chk/fold... unless there's ever a third bet in one of them. I think 1 and 3 are opened up to the most bluffs that we have to fold to though.

Good thoughts Money. I must have been posting right as you were. Esp agree w unrealistic to get 3 streets of value here, and him having Range Adv OTF.

This

Check. He has a range advantage, and we should be checking a lot of our range on boards that favor caller's range. Also dont want to get raised when we have TP + BDFD. His continuing range is always going to bet + spaz/bluffs so just check

I don't think this is about villain being aggro. It's abour our range. This hand looks like a c-bet to me. We might change sizings to the smaller side because we want to bet a lot of value hands that are not straights or sets. I am going to check this in PioSolver tho.

Also, range disadvantage my ass, we have everything on this board + overpairs. Villains might have little more straights/two pair combos but he also has buckload of small pair and 67-56s/ATs/KTs/QJs/KJs type of hands plus he has less overpairs.

I was wrong, Pio suggests we should check our hand 98% of the time. You live you learn.

Uh yeah BTN has a range advantage... not sure how you don't understand that. Not to mention that was rude and unnecessary.

and some things should just be obvious. I guess Pio doesn't teach common sense. Think about how the hand plays out with various cards on later streets if we don't get raised. How often are we showing down a winner if we bet/bet/bet this? Never? The 10% of the time someone gets too curious with QJs?

No, we're not. Although tbf, it seems like you recognize this now. I'd check every single hand on this flop.

well, to be honest, Pio suggests that we have a 50% c-bet on that flop with our 3b range against villain's calling range.