Hehe, he's not being rude, just classic Slimy breaking balls

me neither obv, hope it didn't come across that way

No worries

Yeah, wp then. And I like your betsize otr

I think flop is quite interesting and obv depending on Hero's gameplan. I do agree that ppl, especially good regs, are non-believers on this type of board, but I'll be tempted to include this hand in my raise-flop range, as we do have lots of hands to call with (perceived an actual) and he will have to bet/fold some draws and face heat on lots of turns with a marginal holding.

Pre call is std.

I think if I decide to raise somewhere it should be on the flop. The problem is we don't really represent an awful lot but this shouldn't be a problem as long as we're not raising here too often and with stacks as they are villain can't just shove his Jxxx and overpairs.

Turn is a clear flat. We have hands with much more equity that can raise here. If we were deeper then it becomes a good option but as we're not then we should just flat.

If we flat the turn though we need to be bluffing some rivers and this river seems good to bluff on.

By raising the flop we allow him to 3bet/gii with his AA/KK/Jxxx, a huge portion of his range. We should balance our calling range with made hands and backdoor draws, and jam a lot of turns - this being one of them.

but our equity is so terrible when called. I'm not sure what his exact calling range would be in this spot, but we are probably less than 20% against it. We would need a Lot of FE for this to be good.

I think gogetarealjob advocates a call in that post, so i think you guys agree.

I play it the same and certainly bet this river. Prob a bit bigger though.

Yea, was responding to ivanovic, but too lazy to quote, sorry

Interesting hand, absolutely no idea what he's check calling with but intuition suggests betting river 330 is going to be meh profitable.

I don't feel comfortable playing 3b pots with this hand, sure there are spots where we are able to take a pot with 100% of our range post flop by stealing but meh this hand takes a crap tonne of skill edge to profit from.

The turn is pretty bad for a large portion of his range, and I suspect he picked up a flush draw and will be stubborn about folding, so I don't like raising the turn, especially jamming. But when we call turn we don't really have two pair unless we are levelling a read on his OP to extract river value.

I don't really get how people can know what to do here as its all dynamic.

We are trying to figure out what to do here in a vacuum against a reg villain.

as I said betting ~ 330 against a 6% 3b range seems profitable, heck might aswell just pot if we are making decisions without a behavioral basis for the 'extra fold equity due to decreased pot odds'. This does not really mean anything though and should not be applicable unless playing against some kind of BOT or mass tabler. I don't know what the meta typical steroptypes are in the lines here as to determine what to do in 'vacuum'.

Determining what to do in a vacuum here is pretty pointless. Finding the correct GTO line was skewed since playing 3b hand with a heavily reverse implied and weak hand. SO to ask for GTO stuff when you must have had non vacuum information to put you int his spot int he first place, unless generally this is just a leak in your vacuum GTO game. I am confident about this btw if someone heavily disagrees then it would be beneficial for one of us to learnt he truth.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 5J278

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
60%!3%	55.29%	328,459	6,519
6%	44.71%	265,022	6,519

The perceived gradient is generally in our favour assuming that he ses the bottom of your open call 3b range as 60% - if you ahve chosent ot play worse hands than this in this spot and he has seen then it changes,

The littlest things can tilt the position alot.

Don't think anyone competent is ever folding to 3bet. Think betting river is good. Disagree with MtFishnoob that trying to decipher what is good in a vacuum here being pointless. Agree with GGARJ that we shouldn't be raising flop, think against any semi competent reg (nevermind a reg who plays up to 25/50) they are just shipping any Jxxx, Any overpair and gutter etc. Also essentially the best way to 'play poker' here is to flat and give ourselves options on the turn. We have potentially 8 nut outs already so obviously we're never folding. We are going to call/float etc with the majority of our Jxxx stuff, for above reasons, add to that we're going to float the majority of our 5xxx stuff and 2xxx stuff, all this is going to make the hand difficult for Villain on turn. Only somewhat interesting spot is whether to raise turn or not imo. I am leaning against as I feel villain is barrelling clubs a lot here and isn't going to fold overpair + clubs and J + clubs so we're gonna be getting it in pretty damn dirty on the turn when we do have to GII. Think Apo plays this about as well as he can in a vacuum as it happens. River sizing imo is pretty meh, just anywhere in the 65-75% of pot range seems pretty darn good.

Mt.FishNoob, are you honestly suggesting folding this double suited semi-connected hand heads up in position over 150bb deep? Like come on!
And I do believe this spot is fairly common so that it can be discussed. Not sure what my actual holding has to do with the spot we are in (in fact we do have a couple of straight and 2pair blockers, but thats not even the point)

Yes I'm honestly suggesting folding pre. This hand is ranked lowly on a 6man table for a reason. Heads up in position is a saving grace sure but we want a smaller pot on the flop and we profit from cumulative wins of small pots (or at least this is my intention) often enough to offset folding losses, we are CAUGHT OUT here preflop, depth is not necessarily our friend when he has plenty of superior flush draws and dominating hands. So often he is going to have OP + fd , or dominate our 'semi connected' trash. Seriously what % of return are you expecting here? This number can't be determined, but it is pretty obvious that without meta included the hand is making you go busto. ALso he is 3bing wide enough to make it hard to play profitably postflop, IF he only has premium KK or AA with some AKQQ ect thrown in its different but is he known to 3b with KQJT? JT87? 5566ds? ANd do you have such an image where people are going to be 3bing vs you alot because you are known to play hands like 9823? One advantage of playing here is if you manage to showdown your play as people will start attacking your opens more often because they see lots of money.

It can be discussed with relation to villain type, discussing in vacuum, as I explained does not really mean anything because dynamics play a very large role. Especially in defining a check call/check shove range on river. It makes a huge difference if he check calls with AA and 2 pair, A3, does he check river to induce, so many variables have huge effect on the profitably of a river bet. By default you bet because surely we was not calling down solely for the draw but who knows if it is making money? Its such a shrug spot, his range is kind of wide because two half pots is not really putting pressure after the first barrel call and his river options are also wide, it only becomes interesting/debatable out of vacuum. I can on;ly guess that half pot half pot check is a sign of a perceived <35% weakness semi bluff on both streets. Its important to note that the vacuum play is going to be exploited by someone who puts this into their calculation and traps you with a cc or cr. Might aswell just flip a coin and do what that says.

Also its dumb to try and work out vacuum palys against a good reg who plays up to plo5k. His game is likely going to be non standard (post flop)

Since I am villain here I can spare a few points about the hand. First, I think you're play is good and I would've played it the same. Some important things to note though from your perspective:

* Shoving the turn, as someone suggested, would be -EV against any competent opponent and should only be done if villain is turncb/folding at a massive high percentage (like some are).

* Preflop you shouldn't look at my overall SB 3b stat but be looking at my SB 3b vs steal stat (which is 11% atm I believe).

* You said you would valuebet J2+ OTR and I think a point to be made is that I see alot of regs at midstakes NEVER flatting that or better mades OTF or turn. I dont know if this applies to you but I would tend to think when Im playing 500 zoom that J2+ is not in villains flat calling range and I think that's a big mistake against someone who knows how to exploit it.

* OTR, you should also consider the fact that you have no clubs in your hand which makes it a better bluffing hand. But yeah, always bluff with this hand unless villain is massively overcalling river. Just be sure to not weaken your flat range on early streets and you will be able to have enough valuehands by the river.

Some points from OOPs (my) perspective:

* On this river it is important to neither overcall nor overfold. To get decent frequencies I approach it by blocker value in my hand. In this particular hand I had AAK4cc which I would fold since it blocks his busted club draws and has no str8 blockers. If my hand was AAT6 or KKT6 without clubs I would strongly consider calling. I would also check/call some 2pairs with any str8 blocker and check/raise some nut hands. Also ch/call any set if I don't decide to valuebet it.

/jedi

Thank you, nice post. If you don't mind me asking, can you tell me a couple of hands from the bottom of your turn bet/calling range?

Thank you, Jedi, great post!

what would you do though?

I prolly would have called with just a J which is why I said to check assuming villain might too (id figure he doesn't rep much on river.) Would I be a fish for calling with that? srs Q

depends what kind of Jack it is (what the other cards are). Jedi summarized very well what we should be looking for in a hand in order to bluffcatch.

great post bigaisa

it seems like some people are talking about maybe folding this pre IP 150bb deep, i can't think of any reason why you would ever think about doing that assuming you are competent at all postflop


really good post too jedi (who knew you spoke english so well)

I really really want to expand on some great points you made but who still talks strategy on 2p2 anymore if i was a small stakes player I would keep re-reading this post until I really understood it

i d agree with Fishn00b that this is probably a gto fold to the 3bet and if we want to play this profitably we would want villain to have some exploitable leaks in his postflop play. being deeper also helps a good player to leverage super strong hands post. We flop over 70% flop equity against a 10% range in roughly 3% of the cases. We are a dog on 74% of the boards and dont flop nutty hands often.
most of the time we ll flop mediocre and will be marginal to call or fold flops.
In game it could still work because people will fold too tight (according to gt) on many boards.

Please expand on your points? The ssplo forum is one of the classiest forums on 2+2.... and deserves a let it hang all out strategy mentality imo

Great stuff, Jedi, thanks for your contribution! Especially since it's also an analysis of your own play

Assuming turn sizing is meant to induce, you rascal