This was my favorite part. It's so classical.

Maybe your gut does some of the math for you,,, you don't need a gut feeling to know that 3bing weak aces from oop without reaching at least a semi commited flop spr i.e its going in on 80% of flops - is a bad idea. If you can get say 33% of your stack in preflop 3 ways with a raise with AAT7ss then it is a fist pump, heads up you are looking at 23% of stack in and every % over that = $$$. It's never really down to how many bb deep you are but what % of your stack you are investing : pot. With weaker aces you just adjust say maybe you want 40% of your stack in with AA94r but with AAJTds then we just want to ram the pot regardless of %

For the record, I'm trolling.

I didn't think OP was actually referring to the Nicolas Cage movie "Adaptation" with his earlier comments. My posting of the picture had no real strategic benefit, and I knew this when I posted it. I apologise for doing this.

Oh my

This thread needed an intervention a while back, lol

I kinda feel for Paulo, he's clearly a student of the game who's encountered some nasty variance. He's trying to think outside the box to tone down that variance at the expense of EV (although he may not realize this yet).

Although it's extremely tempting to troll him here, and he's getting provoked pretty easily, try to restrain yourselves and help him as best you can by drawing the proverbial picture.

For some reason I was thinking about this last night even though I haven't really grinded seriously for over a year. Exchanging a high variance small edge and taking that loss when the vast majority of other situations are low variance and higher +ev spots due to certain meta dynamics is not a terrible idea, but it goes against the poker philosophy of saying 'no' to any opponenets mistake which materializes in monetary gain. It is a game strat which use in the real world due to finite lifespan, in poker people are using long term justification of AIEV to make a decision but make the mistake of not seeing that spot as within a whole lifespan relative to a bankroll.

This goes into the philosophy of BRM, a sufficient bankroll is needed aswell as a huge volume sample to be close to guaranteeing success or maximising ev, in a hostile world you cannot afford to fold a small high variance edge, unless you minimize damage by having more lives.... folding this AA94r which is hypothetically netting 2bb/100 +/- 250bb is plausible if you was never to sit down at a table again after this buy in, and I find that fascinating, reason being is that focusing on the present moment and the present choice to be mandatory but also we have to fear variance and also love it, as cutting down variance to a close to gtd skill based rather than luck based gradient really has no effect on your livelyhood. Which relates to your tilt and A game, some play better on edge when feel threatened but at the same time tilt has more impact.

Anyway, 250bb with weak aa against maniac is insta shove, this gift may not return again and it creates a luck defecit, if you turn down or reject your luck as it comes, then you only need more in the future.

TY @gogetarealjob. Indeed I am a student of PLO and indeed i had bizar variance.

yes i am trying to figure out a way to cut this down.

i dont want to play out of ev planning since I am making volume by playing many hands a day. So in the 100k system that is bad.

But as i said before poker has many tools.
And to decide its not just math. Its also logic, memory, adaptation and psychology ( which does not go for opponent online, but does for your own mind..)

The pros trolling here are wasting there time.
The interresting thing about them is that they are answering serious on other threads about what they do with the nut straight on the flop....

Affraid to be freerolled there they do fold the nut straight sometimes......

.....Which IMO is a a more worse choice then folding AA pre. Since with AAxx pre there are still 5 cards to come.

so your AA had 60-70% but has to survive 5 cards. While on the flop your nutstraight only needs to live for two more streets...


I work with a sufficient but small bankroll. to go every time for 250bb with a weak AA to get your mini edge is not good for me, its better if you have a monster bankroll and make monster playing volume.


Last but not least; if you call/push weak AA, for example

AA 9 4 rainbow for 250 bbs, and he plays, then what must your opponent have????

if you are honest , even vs a high vpip, its still the most chance he also has aces, because how stupid would he be not to have aces for 250bbs?

And then his aces are almost for sure better then your aces...!!!!

. So he has for example AA Q 5 ds

now he crushes you....!!!
With weak aces most of the time acording to that theory you are crushed
by better AA

the pros trolling here never wrote about that scenario..

I think you're re-raise was a little too small to accomplish anything...calling didn't define villain's range, but you're certainly on the verge of turning your hand face up

This is not true for many players. The odds of running up against AAxx when you have AAxx are fairly slim. Yes, it does happen, but at all levels there are opponents who are more than willing to get it in PF with many DS connectors, pair + pair hands, KKxx or QQxx hands just because they want to gamble against your "aces".

In regards to your feelings on the subject, if you aren't comfortable with putting your entire stack in with weak aces, then just don't do it. If you suffer emotional swings due to losing with weak AAxx, then the net effect of this +EV play on your game is -EV and overall that is worse than losing out on a small edge in a single hand.

I don't agree with many of the opinions in threads I read, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are right and I am wrong or vice versa. I choose to look at the game from a different perspective and so far its done me alright. The fundamental basis of your decision making should still be in the land of mathematical probability and long term edges, but don't be afraid to mix it up a bit and make a decision that you feel is correct, regardless of what the numbers say.

Poker theorem is meant to be challenged, styles are meant to clash and be dynamic, that is what makes the game fun. Yes, there is an overall accepted norm for how you should play, but that doesn't mean you have to always listen. Don't be afraid to go against that norm, just be willing to accept that you might lose in the overall EV picture and take a little heat from the 2+2 regs

no offence here, and it´s nice from getjob (who is the best mod anyway imo) to defend you here, but you also seem to have a pretty stubborn mindset (showing that you more or less did not once seem to try to understand the arguments from most (even trolls) in this thread), and a stubborn mindset will hurt you greatly in poker if you plan to move up.

see, i understand your situation. everybody goes through it and finds variance very harsh at the beginning, but a) by your writing you does not seem to be a noob either (100k hands /25bb etc) and b) being miserable and stubborn about it won´t change it.

fwiw there are many really bad posts itt from trolls who want to seem smart/funny but are just plain wrong about few things, but also some very good posts if you can filter out the garbage.

the best would be to post new threads if you run into situations where you feel you are a bit lost what the best play is imo, and more or less leave this one behind...

with AAxx you can GII and put your kidney in there as well.
in the long run with this hand you will have enough money to buy one more kidney
and run around with 3 )))))

hahaha oh my