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Variance or Bad Play? Variance or Bad Play?

10-24-2013 , 10:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yrmom
Yeah, I'm done here
Why? I'd like to hear more.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 09:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yrmom
Yeah, I'm done here
Cogent response..
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 10:09 AM
QQT8ss and QQ86ss are both pretty good hands. weirdly they remain good at varying stack depth, but for totally different reasons.

not sure how you can say he played it badly with no reads on opponent or stacksizes, but vs a guy that will stack off with J9 on J933 i think its really really hard to say the play is bad.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 10:10 AM
(ftr it might have been bad, we dont have all info, and i think at a tough table it is a fold in early position, probably up to MP2 or so)
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
Why? I'd like to hear more.
I don't talk to people who don't listen. Habit I picked up from intolerable family members.

I'd be happy to discuss with you, not Alien. I'll go over the hands after my session
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yrmom
I don't talk to people who don't listen. Habit I picked up from intolerable family members.

I'd be happy to discuss with you, not Alien. I'll go over the hands after my session
Huh, and I "don't listen" where? I have made supporting comments, and you have made only snide remarks.

You have made zero cogent comments in this thread - no, you are only trolling. Welcome to the ignore list.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 04:50 PM
in the 2nd hand, you have 2 players having 8d Flop contains Qd and 5c which you have in a players hand. ...i changed those and ran the preflop equity in propoker tools.

you have 27% equity here, just 13% off from main villain that's mainly because another villain has an A.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
376,992 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdAs7s5c40.79% 152,2403,057
7h7d8s9c16.29% 60,6502,061
AcTc8c2s15.18% 55,4574,092
QcQd6c8d27.73% 104,0401,548

Post flop equity.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
528 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Q57
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AdAs7s5c8.14% 430
7h7d8s9c14.77% 780
AcTc8c2s8.14% 430
QcQd6c8d68.94% 3640

Now let's assume you're against the AAxx villain alone preflop, you're 62/37, imo 37% equity is average against this particular preflop raiser but this hand should be in pretty good shape against some folks who raise wider.

yrmom is a very good player. When i disagree with him I usually say to myself "yrmom is right, I just can't see it." I think alien may be on the tightish side.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
Went to the casino Saturday and played 1/2 PLO. I lost 8 buy ins...
From your reaction to losing that amount I would say your stop loss should be lower than the amount you lost. If it hurts that much to lose that much, you should have quit before, since you went lower than your pain intolerance treshold.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
1-

stacks: Hero $225, V1 $400, V2 covers
I have JT98ss in EP and I make it $8. 2 callers and then villian (younger kid, reads a history book that is college homework and just came from 2/5plo after losing). Villian makes it $40 and we get a fish to call (Villian 2 is fish, he plays almost any 4 cards but has hit the deck tonight) and I get action back to me and it is $30 to call or I can pot for $150.
You would probably do better overall not raising at all in EP and just limping to limp/call or limp/reraise. You destroy your ability to manipulate pot size too often by raising in EP in FRPLO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
My thought process here. If I can get my whole stack in, pot it. I cant so if I call I can keep the fish in the hand and V1 probably has a premium holding here and wont fold preflop.

I call
Yep, jamming pre as an equity dog with no FE seems atrocious



Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
Pot is now $150 and the flop is 346 no suits. I check and V1 bets $100 and V2 shoves. I obviously fold. V1 calls with J457 and hits an 8 to scoop.
This hand mostly shows why your EP raise is pumping variance for nothing, rest of the hand is standard



Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
2-

stacks: hero $300, V1 $600, V2 300, V3 300

I have QcQd6c8d and am utg. I limp and its limped to sb who makes it $15. BB calls, I call, and 4 others call. Pot is $90.
Probably just limp/reraise if SB is the kind of live player who gets excited at the idea of "sweetning the pot". If he raise/jams, we can pretty comfortably fold barring some read.

I would rather lower the SPR and reduce the number of players to the flop with a really strong but non nutty hand like QQ86ds

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
V1 is the fish V2 from the hand above. He will play any 4 cards it seems like and crushes the board so far tonight. He isnt good but pots turns and rivers with hands that I wouldnt even consider calling bets with but gets there.

V2 is a reg. He is pretty tight and solid. Doesnt make mistakes, ABC poker.

V3 is a NIT old guy. He doesnt play many hands and takes forever to make decisions.
Given these reads, definitely limp/reraise if V1 is SB LAGfish


Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
Flop comes Qd5c7c. BB checks to me and I bet $65. V1 calls, V2 shoves $300, V3 tank calls, I call, V1 calls!

Ok, now we can see where were at here and I have to be in GREAT shape. Top set, 3rd nut flush draw, open ended. V1 turns his hand over nobody else does. V1 turns over AdAs7s5c.

Turn Ah!

River 3c

Ok, I lost obviously and V3 scoops. The hands were:

V1 AdAs7s5c
V2 7h7d8d9c
V3 AcTc8c2s

I didnt run that bad here but its just funny how it happens in this game. I left after that hand and said nice hand. I am taking a break I guess.
All of this here is just BBV material
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 05:08 PM
QQT8 isn't top 5% in equity - it's equity matches top 19% (heads up) nowhere near 5%.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...9%25&s=generic

Last edited by AlienBoy; 10-25-2013 at 05:21 PM.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 05:26 PM
Your ignore list must be broken.

Here's an example if you want. Don't completely trust "ranking" feature on PPT, but it's an OK place to start.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...24ds&s=generic

Other piece of advice: there's much better than Hwang out there.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 05:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RI Don
yrmom is a very good player. When i disagree with him I usually say to myself "yrmom is right, I just can't see it." I think alien may be on the tightish side.
This is good to Know - I've never interacted with him before, but his first comments in this thread were snide to say the least. I might review more of his posts...

Yes, I am tight - from what I've experienced in live play in LA, tight gets people's stacks.

I like getting people's stacks.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienBoy
QQT8 isn't top 5% in equity - it's equity matches top 19% (heads up) nowhere near 5%.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...9%25&s=generic
But we don't know much about hand 1's preflop action unless im missing something.

there are spots in omaha we should be playing close to a4c. top 19% with a relatively black/white hand in most spots is decent enough imo.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-25-2013 , 10:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienBoy
This is good to Know - I've never interacted with him before, but his first comments in this thread were snide to say the least. I might review more of his posts...
Sorry if I was a douche. I don't like when people dismiss what I say, it angers me unspeakable points.

I try to always be open to being outright wrong even if I'm sure I'm right, and when I feel its no reciprocate, I get pissed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienBoy
Yes, I am tight - from what I've experienced in live play in LA, tight gets people's stacks.

I like getting people's stacks.
Watch out with this thinking though. If you think playing tight will always net money because other people make fundamental errors, you might do OK for a while, but it's a dangerous road to go down; you're effectively folding yourself out of tough decisions.

In some games, like the really shorthanded or the really passive games, you pass up on a lot of money by playing "the strategy" instead of questioning everything you do at all times.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-26-2013 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S
But we don't know much about hand 1's preflop action unless im missing something.

there are spots in omaha we should be playing close to a4c. top 19% with a relatively black/white hand in most spots is decent enough imo.
He says in a later post he raised UTG - IMO an early raise with this hand is just trouble. Not sure I like limping early, either - depends on table texture though - if we can see a cheap flop, limping should be okay.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-26-2013 , 12:10 AM
oh ok... missed that

at most tables raising this UTG isnt good. a minraise in a bad game could be optimal though.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-26-2013 , 12:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yrmom
Sorry if I was a douche. I don't like when people dismiss what I say, it angers me unspeakable points.

I try to always be open to being outright wrong even if I'm sure I'm right, and when I feel its no reciprocate, I get pissed.
Well I apologize if you feel I dismissed what you were saying - I didn't intend to be dismissive - my point though as I work on my own opening strategy, is to treat a hand like QQT8 and especially QQ86 as speculative, as I would gapped connectors in holdem. Speculative hands play poorly OOP - I don't see raising early here as a good idea.


Quote:
Originally Posted by yrmom
Watch out with this thinking though. If you think playing tight will always net money because other people make fundamental errors, you might do OK for a while, but it's a dangerous road to go down; you're effectively folding yourself out of tough decisions.

In some games, like the really shorthanded or the really passive games, you pass up on a lot of money by playing "the strategy" instead of questioning everything you do at all times.
Funny thing is, at least in hold em, I think of myself as a LAG or LAG/TAG - yet everyone else calls me a TAG or nit... I handle tough decisions in hold em well - but I don't have enough feel for PLO yet to constantly put myself in tough spots.

Nevertheless, I see the huge errors that people make in PLO and I understand what you are saying - my focus is on post flop play more than pre, but pre I still want hands that are more likely to be dominating rather than dominated.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-26-2013 , 05:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienBoy
I don't have enough feel for PLO yet to constantly put myself in tough spots.
Perhaps the tone of your post should reflect this lack of experience, rather than the matter-of-fact approach you currently approach - it's one thing to be enthusiastic in giving your opinion, but some of your advice is naive at best and at worst just plain bad.

Hwang's work is ok but far from definitive, and very little of it applied to 6 max online PLO 3-4 years ago, never mind now.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-26-2013 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Perhaps the tone of your post should reflect this lack of experience, rather than the matter-of-fact approach you currently approach - it's one thing to be enthusiastic in giving your opinion, but some of your advice is naive at best and at worst just plain bad.

Hwang's work is ok but far from definitive, and very little of it applied to 6 max online PLO 3-4 years ago, never mind now.
Im glad others chimed in about his comments. I like QQT8 and 68. I dont love them but im never folding those preflop. I dont like Jeffs books either. Not for live FR PLO at least. There is a lot of new stuff that just makes more sense. I have played a lot of plo, live and online. I 100% disagreed with the poster so its good to know Im not crazy with my thoughts.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-28-2013 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Perhaps the tone of your post should reflect this lack of experience, rather than the matter-of-fact approach you currently approach - it's one thing to be enthusiastic in giving your opinion, but some of your advice is naive at best and at worst just plain bad.
Oh? Would you care to cite an example?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Hwang's work is ok but far from definitive, and very little of it applied to 6 max online PLO 3-4 years ago, never mind now.
Researching him indicates he is the most respected author in terms of Pot Limit Omaha. Do you have a different "definitive" author?


[QUOTE=cap217;40750232]Im glad others chimed in about his comments. I like QQT8 and 68. I dont love them but im never folding those preflop.

You don't love them? Then why are you raising in early position with them???

My point is that your EP raise was really bad.

And "never folding preflop" ?? Really? If theres a raise and a re raise in front of you you're not folding? That's a huge leak.

Limping ?? Sure, fine. But raising is bad and cold calling big raises may also be bad in most situations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
II dont like Jeffs books either. Not for live FR PLO at least. There is a lot of new stuff that just makes more sense. I have played a lot of plo, live and online. I 100% disagreed with the poster so its good to know Im not crazy with my thoughts.

What books do you like?

As far as "100% disagree" - You stated yourself you are a losing player. As a winning player I offered advice on what I see as bad play in the hands in question. The kind of mistakes I see the guys that sit, rebuy several times, and leave broke every day at Commerce.

You can listen to what you WANT to hear, which is fine. But in answering your question, I see big mistakes in play, even in the hands you cherry picked to whine about "how unlucky" you are.

I'd like to point out that YRMOM made some of the same statements on your post flop play as I did. If there is any "discrepancy" in opinion, it is related to preflop.

We all get the same cards, and are hit by the same bad beats. You cant judge variance by three hands, but mistakes in play might be noticed.

But I'm not going to give you some ego boost by saying that "oh its just run bad" when clearly it isn't.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-28-2013 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienBoy
Researching him indicates he is the most respected author in terms of Pot Limit Omaha. Do you have a different "definitive" author?
There isn't a definitive author for 6 max PLO imo, and that's one of the reasons the games remain pretty decent.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-28-2013 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
There isn't a definitive author for 6 max PLO imo, and that's one of the reasons the games remain pretty decent.

LOL. You don't need "definitive" on a narrow version of the game to know that certain principals of poker, like POSITION are important.

You say Hwang is not definitive - but then you say that no one is... This argument is obviously going nowhere. Listen to what you want to hear...
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-28-2013 , 04:28 PM
Where did I state I am a losing player? I am a big winner in limit hold em and a solid winner in PLO. I am a small winner in nl but that was from losing mostly in 10/20 Bellagio and 5/10 games years ago. I did well in smaller stakes. I said I am running horribly bad for months now in PLO and wanted to look at my play.

As for qqt8, I'm folding to big 3 bets but that doesn't happen often in small stakes PLO. As for Jeff's books, we talked when he was writing these years ago in vegas when we were starting the 125 PLO game at the Venetian. I read and discussed w him. For now, forums here and rio are the best ways to study the game.

Not sure why your getting defensive. I listed to what you are saying and am glad others chimed in. There is an old thread where sauce talked about live hands and hands like k568 and he can't fold those in live play.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-28-2013 , 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
Where did I state I am a losing player?
You said it in this very thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
I am losing all the time but I want to figure out if it is variance or bad play. Do I play poorly? Do I just get myself into tough spots?


Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217
Not sure why your getting defensive.
Because of the condensing and non constructive nature of the responses.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-28-2013 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienBoy
You don't need "definitive" on a narrow version of the game to know that certain principals of poker, like POSITION are important.
Thanks for clearing that up for us
Variance or Bad Play? Quote
10-28-2013 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Thanks for clearing that up for us
LOL.

You're dismissing a well regarded author on the subject (without basis) and I'm pointing out the fallacy of the argument.

Anyway, if the pissing contest is over, lets get back to something more productive.
Variance or Bad Play? Quote

      
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