right.
there are all kinds of variance, and aiev only accounts for a small fraction of it.

depends on how much rakeback you got

I wouldn't have any emotions, but the desire to be in a continuous process of improving and acquiring experience. Make sure you are enjoying the complexity of the game and not being tilted by the results.

Poker is not a game for bad losers or bad winners, poker is a game for people who want to play chess against the gms and are happy with the privelage of losing. In poker the universe is kind of like the grand master.

That's deep man, real deep

Good point MFN. Trouble is it's all on Stars, so all I know is that I generated $1,327.61 rake for them, but don't know how to calculate what my cut is with their VIP system. I've had 30% elsewhere, so I guess I ought to know what Stars VIP system is worth to me, or else I can't compare or contrast...

You should be very worried. because some of us are more cursed than the others. Unfortunately we only find out in the end.

this.

think about it this way, it was exactly equally likely that you flipped the other side of the coin and ended up 18+17=35 bi down.

definitely do a HEM/PT review, you clearly have some leaks

good luck buddy

Cheers. It's worse than I thought. I've just discovered that I'm now +27 buy ins over all-in EV for the last 33.35K hands, so my 21.4 buy in profit looks less good now. Run good of the century?

Trouble is, now I'm running scared of variance's revenge!

Y'all certain that these figures mean I'm a losing player just running good?

both lines are bs...

don't look at them


they are just used as justification which can appeal to or hurt the ego (master this ego also) and promote results orientation.

you will learnt to know when making mistakes, you will learn to gauge your own 'am I running good or bad'

you get to the point where you can predict how much oyu made rounded to 50bbs ina 2 hour session of ten tabling and take a guess at how much above or below your actual ev this is (not AIEV, actual EV) through a sub concious feel very similar to the sub concious feel you develop in making decisions, through your experience and study.

for every hand in a graph, there were thousands of potential hands, millions if it is preflop in their range, trillions if not infinite amount of variations in the decisions made.

part of learning poker is learning what variables control the real ev.

Certainly hope my All-In EV line is BS, but surely our results largely boil down to the big pots? And as these are mostly all-in, it seems reasonable to believe the AIEV line is a useful indicator of how much better or worse things would be on average?

And if the Net Won line isn't a useful measure, what is? Surely, there comes a point where it's useful to have concrete evidence of whether you're able to be a 'winning' player or not?

net won is a completely useless irrelevant line unless you are playing underrolled and need to check day to day income

all-in ev line is flawed but the best way to check your edge

Eh? "Completely useless irrelevant line"! So what, even after a million hands? What better measure can there possibly be?

Hey, can y'all cut the psuedo-zen stuff and be present in the material world for this one?

what do you wanna hear?
look at how you played the hands, not the results.
if you play the hands optimally, the results will come.
so work on your game and stop looking at graphs/results

all in ev is strictly better because it removes noise from the net won line.

its comparatively completely useless. in fact it doesnt even measure $ won given rakeback is so crucial in today's games.

Presumably then, you'd be supportive of someone declaring an intention to give up their day job to turn pro, because after reviewing their hands they believe they are a winning player, despite their Net Win line showing a steady increase in losses after a million hands.

Seems like people on here mostly just get off on being contrary...

clearly you are not playing anywhere close to optimally then, so i'm not supportive of that

play around with this

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

I wasn't talking about me; it was a hypothetical scenario to challenge your assertion that the Net Win line was irrelevant.

Thanks for the link to ev++ Poker Tools. It found (over 300 trial runs) that there was a ~2% chance of my experiencing a 25 BI downswing. Might my reported 25 BI above all-in EV be similar to only a 2% occurrence also?

Scratch that. Subsequently changed standard deviation from default 80bb/100 to actual 8.82 and found that 5.4BI was the largest downswing I'd experience if maintaining that SD, although I guess the point is that I don't actually have any control over that?

Your standard deviation is certainly over 140bb/100

Yep, right you are. I see that ~160 seems to be the consensus view. In which case, there's now more like a 50/50 chance of a 25 BI swing!

something i wrote, hopefully helps

http://nutblocker.com/article/15/ban...o-players.html

plus my personal runbad whine graphs from bbv

link1 (year ago)
link2 (only AI situations in jan 1-15)
link3 (jan 1-15)

just to show that this happens to all of us, both on the downside and on the upside

only solution is not to stare at graphs, try to make best decisions you can and work on your game

qft

omgggg

that cant be the worst you have run right napsus?