[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
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SB: $108.42 (433.7 bb)
BB: $61.86 (247.4 bb)
UTG: $85.74 (343 bb)
MP: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $33.70 (134.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $36.03 (144.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6 A 7 A
UTG raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.90, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.05

Flop: ($6.15) A 3 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3, UTG calls $3

Turn: ($12.15) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9, UTG calls $9

River: ($30.15) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ?


UTG is 74 / 29 / 30%agg / 120 hands
58% or from utg / 58% fold to Fcbet / 12% raise to Fcbet

I'd be value betting here. We have the third nuts, I'd expect a lot of two pairs with aces to call and all sets. I would expect 4-5 to raise on the turn so I really wouldn't put him on that very often. We're really only losing to J-T which is hard to get here with unless it's some kind of bad club draw that should have folded turn. This is an easy value bet for me, I would probably be going half pot so that we can get lots of random trash to call.

Absolutely

Are you thinking about betting 15$ and folding with 6$ left to a raise?

I could not do that. Just shove for me haha

yep. JT is very unlikely and 45 wouldn't take this slow line usually.

I didn't look at how much was left close enough but I still think I'd bet around what I originally said. I really want to get paid here so I'm lowering the bet size a little. I'd never be folding to a raise. A shove would be fine as well but I think people narrow their calling range in the small stakes to shoves like this which is why I try to make it look like it isn't a shove and hope that they sigh call with two pair.

Such an easy shove! You have what? $22 left? Very very very easy shovel for value. AK is an easy vbet as well, and Im also shoving AQ for value I guess.

His range is kind of weak here but it is pretty much a mistake not to shove for value since you're pretty close to the top of your range.

ty!

Come on Oink, you don't have to try to be cooler than you already are

ez shove.
AQ shove should be very playerdependant. neutral evspot imo.

AQ would be pretty close. This isnt.

if the ev of betting AQ = the EV of checking (0) then it is better to check.

Image building is more important than reducing variance IMO, if that's what you're getting at.

That's a fair point and yes that was what I was getting at.

How do you decide however which hands are strong enough to value bet and wich hands are check behinds? Is this just intution based on player tendencies of calling or there is a math way to construct our value betting range on river spots like this?

The reason for value betting at a basic level is one thing, to get worse hands to call. I look at the range of villians hands and compare that with the range of hands they are calling here (I go crazy with calling range notes). Then I compare that to my actual hand when deciding to bet.

Then it gets math time, how often does villian ahead of my value-bet range and calling, how often is he behind it and calling, how often are they raising as a bluff, how often are they raising for value (the 5th outcome of folding is irrelevant, win whatever is in the pot now in all cases). If we aren't calling a raise then him raising for value/bluff are basically one in the same. I weight each outcome with the chance of it happening and calc the EV, when I am 0 and greater than 0 I bet, less than 0 I check back. (bet size is a whole different thing and something I am bad at).

Lots of work off the table is required for this because players have very different calling ranges for the exact same situation. I basically use my past calcs to best guesstimate the EV of betting during real time. In this specific hand it gets trivial easy to value bet this river since we have the effective nuts, it gets much harder for very thin bets.

Sometimes you just lose more money with top two or something similar to bottom set because they call three streets but will be very profitable in the long run against his calling range which could even be bottom two from some very weak players when draws miss.

Let's say we didn't have the clubs and instead had AA76. The hand plays out the exact same except that the river is K, would you value bet that? Probably not, a large portion of villian's calling range is going to be flush draws and sets. Sets/2pair will probably be check folding that river to our bet once the flush gets there and the majority of villian's calling range is going to be what little 4-5 that didn't raise turn and flushes. Hence the bet is minus EV and I would just showdown.

Feel free to call me out if you think everything I've typed is BS but this is what I've done when learning to bet or to check behind basically for every street not necessarily just the river. Things do get different when you have to worry about bluff raises, then you have to add some value to checking behind but this seem perfect to me when people play straightforward.

Vbet is a bet that beats villian calling range more than 50%. This is a math problem but in game obviously its not so simple. There is a lot of factor that you have to consider and you have to practice a lot ofc. This is some kind of art. Who knows his enemies ranges the best can exploit it the best so the better you are probably the higher you will play in this stuff.