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Value bet or induce a bluff on this river? Value bet or induce a bluff on this river?

03-24-2017 , 04:45 AM
No real reads on villain. I just sat down. I failed to really consider my options on this river and was kicking myself for it for a while afterward.

    WPN, $0.02/$0.05 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 4 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    Hero (SB): $11.76 (235.2 bb)
    BB: $10.32 (206.4 bb)
    CO: $4.09 (81.8 bb)
    BTN: $11.26 (225.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with K A Q 9
    CO raises to $0.17, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.15, BB calls $0.12

    Flop: ($0.51) Q 7 4 (3 players)
    Hero bets $0.25, BB calls $0.25, CO folds

    Turn: ($1.01) K (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.96, BB calls $0.96

    River: ($2.93) 4 (2 players)
    Hero?

    Spoiler:
    Results:Hero bets $1.40, BB folds

    $2.93 pot ($0.14 rake)
    Final Board: Q 7 4 K 4
    Hero mucked K A Q 9 and won $2.79 ($1.41 net)
    BB mucked and lost (-$1.38 net)
    Value bet or induce a bluff on this river? Quote
    03-24-2017 , 08:52 AM
    yeah I'd just value bet and expect to get called be worse quite often, don't want to check and he checks behind us.
    Value bet or induce a bluff on this river? Quote
    03-24-2017 , 04:14 PM
    I'd be value betting too. I'd go for smaller tbh (but I have now been back to playing cards for just a week at PLO5) to get calls from everything.
    Value bet or induce a bluff on this river? Quote
    03-24-2017 , 06:27 PM
    Played well on all streets. The just under half pot sized bet on the river is perfect. If you were to get raised then re-evaluate.


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    Value bet or induce a bluff on this river? Quote
    03-25-2017 , 02:21 PM
    good bet
    Value bet or induce a bluff on this river? Quote
    03-25-2017 , 03:14 PM
    I think check plays better here. First, I think he has a lot more 865/QJT/Q7 other random garbage than smaller backdoor flushes he can call with. Second this isn't a great river for your range. Obviously your nut hands stay the nuts, but all your middling hands would rather just see a showdown, and your bluffing range is super narrow. Since this hand is kind of in between a hand that wants to see a showdown and a hand that wants to get stacks in, I think it plays better as a check to balance out your check/folds. In other words, when you play bet/bet/check on this board runout in general, he's going to to be in an excellent situation to value bet very thinly, bluff very often, and only take/give free showdowns when both bluffing and value betting are completely nonsensical. Third, if you bet the river big, you're definitely over-repping your hand. Only better calls and all worse folds. If you bet small, his unknown value and bluff raising ranges present a problem. With your 2 pair blockers, you might have to bluff catch vs a raise, but 4's full do make up a reasonable percentage of his overall river range, so you have to play guessing games as to how often he raises his hands that can't win by calling vs. some goofy 1/2 half pot river sizing.
    Value bet or induce a bluff on this river? Quote

          
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