Ugly River Bet - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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Ugly River Bet

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02-15-2017 , 10:43 PM

lucaspawpaw16

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 284

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37639346

Hero (BTN): $654.68 (327.3 bb)
SB: $228.10 (114.1 bb)
BB: $194 (97 bb)
UTG: $193.78 (96.9 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $1,276.91 (638.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J

2 folds, CO raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) 6

(2 players)
CO bets $12.11, Hero raises to $52.48, CO calls $40.37

Turn: ($121.96) J

(2 players)
CO bets $38, Hero raises to $233.21, CO calls $195.21

River: ($588.38) T

(2 players)
CO bets $380, Hero?

villain is 29/22 over 700 with a WSD 32% and a W$SD of 57%

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02-16-2017 , 01:41 AM

tofurocks

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 870

I ain't foldin

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02-16-2017 , 04:07 AM

thsheriff

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 199

Fold pre. I'm never folding river.

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02-16-2017 , 11:10 AM

this_passing

소녀시대 애교 대박

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 6,442

fold pre, raise flop smaller, river idk i guess you have to call although it's pretty ugly

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02-17-2017 , 12:40 AM

lucaspawpaw16

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 284

why are we never folding river here? I've pumped twice and villains stats show that hes usually more right than worng at showdown.

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02-17-2017 , 01:20 AM

broe

journeyman

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 260

what are his aggression stats? How often does he cbet and call a raise? Weird turnplay by villian anyway. The river is a very bad spot for him to bluff but if he is really bad he might. Crying call I guess.

Last edited by broe; 02-17-2017 at 01:31 AM.

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02-17-2017 , 01:46 AM

Adebisi

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,965

Quote:

Originally Posted by lucaspawpaw16

why are we never folding river here? I've pumped twice and villains stats show that hes usually more right than worng at showdown.

His most likely hand by far is the chop. Any other hand would have to be played totally nonsensically.

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02-17-2017 , 02:28 AM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adebisi

His most likely hand by far is the chop.

Yeah this is totally plausible the way the hand was played.

Last edited by .isolated; 02-17-2017 at 02:29 AM. Reason: /sarcasm

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02-17-2017 , 05:53 PM

tofurocks

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 870

Quote:

Originally Posted by lucaspawpaw16

why are we never folding river here? I've pumped twice and villains stats show that hes usually more right than worng at showdown.

Cuz heyyyyy our hand is pretty good!

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02-18-2017 , 05:15 AM

#10

b1ochemical

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,321

Such a weird line from him, i think i can't fold, but our hand is pretty much always 45xx and can't see him bluffing. Does look fairly solid dude, so must have a very decent equity OTT to call 2nd pot sized raise, possibly 6789/5789/789T with diamonds?
Would be very sick if he had the same hand with some blockers and is trying to get you off your straight. 4588 or smt.
Very interesting hand, thanks for sharing.

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02-18-2017 , 09:19 AM

#11

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,051

I probably fold this, villain's turn play looks so sketchy that it should be hard for him to bluff, I'm pretty skeptical that he takes this line with the same straight we do, I could see some 8x and 88xx doing this and maybe set that didn't fill up, but without some inclination he bluffs a lot here I think fold is better default

Hero could easily have the nut straight on the river given his line as well

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02-18-2017 , 05:32 PM

#12

blakkkat

adept

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 773

Fold or 3bet pre,terrible call imo.

Flop n turn seem standard,river is kinda tough but since i dont usually see decent players donk/calling twice in this spot(especially turn sizing seems so fishy) i tend to call since he can have bunch of 2 pairs or even sets that he doesnt know what to do with.

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02-18-2017 , 11:10 PM

#13

gpet1984

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 8

What's the villains CO pfr. I think we need more info to decide his range. He can have a lot of mid connected hands like 6789 4567ss in his CO range by just looking at his overall pfr. The only hand that makes sense here is 45xx unless this is some meta in not aware of :/. I could never fold here if he played 89 this way he deserves it.

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02-19-2017 , 08:38 PM

#14

lucaspawpaw16

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 284

There's three hands i put villain on 45xx but his xx will be 4567ds

The other is a set with 89 . 7789 being the obvious one. I do believe this gets it in on turn so most unlikely of the 3

The last one is 89TJ which i'm most curtious about. Trying to get some positional stats but HEM playing up

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02-20-2017 , 08:41 AM

#15

warwicktom

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 21

If were ever folding 45xx here I guess this is one of the better ones to fold wrt blockers.

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