PokerStars - $0.02 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 52 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 16)
MP: 146 BB (VPIP: 58.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 191.5 BB (VPIP: 34.18, PFR: 23.33, 3Bet Preflop: 14.67, Hands: 438)
SB: 113.5 BB (VPIP: 43.00, PFR: 3.50, 3Bet Preflop: 1.25, Hands: 205)
BB: 41 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q 7 T J

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) Q 5 K
SB checks, BB bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, SB calls 9 BB, BB calls 7 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 3 players) 7
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 29 BB, SB calls 29 BB, fold

River: (94 BB, 2 players) 2
SB bets 41 BB


When small blind over calls here I think he has NFD most of the time, although 3-betting this flop does turn villains hand pretty face up here vs utg bet and my raise.

I raise just to attack weakness and iso weaker player with what I think is a strong hand here.

What is your river decision here?

Fixed that for you.

otr, I'd call. Certainly not a fist pump as you're going to see KQ a bit here but given we only need to be good 23.5ish% of the time, we can't fold.

What range of hands do you expect to see the 23.5% of the time that we're good? Bluffs, worse value hands or a bit of both?

This line is so rarely ever a bluff imo. People just don't donk into a non-board changing river with a bluff when the other player has shown strength throughout the hand.

As for weaker value hands - unless he called flop with a NFD and hit a weak 2 pair OTT or OTR then it's pretty unlikely he has a weaker value hand.

I wouldn't be that surprised to see 55 here.

+1, don't see much value in calling otr

I´d snap call river.

He's 43/4 meaning he's not thinking about high level poker thoughts. He doesn't care that his line doesn't make sense if he has no pair. Call.

huh?

My point wasn't about whether or not it's a good spot to bluff. It was about the fact that all players at whatever level just don't bluff with this line.

I don't think a call can be that bad given it's PLO2 and lol factor - maybe he shows up with enough worse value hands or does the bluff that 95%+ of players just don't do.

His stats also indicate a certain passivity.

Yes I'd like to know his river aggression but since that wasn't presented and he took a very draw heavy line I'm paying off

I've seen a bluff enough in these obvious bad bluff spots that I expect a call to be profitable. I don't think we're beating any value hands which is obviously a huge detriment.

His point was that this isn't just any player. He's a player who's no good at hand reading and knows he can't win the pot without bluffing at it.

And just as important, most fun players will always crai on turn with the hands he's repping. I would expect to see mostly KQ, KK, a good amount of bluffs and maybe K2/K7