I don't like how this thread isn't talking much strategy.
What I did notice in a few hands was the flop was checked.
I've pulled off a couple of bluffs and also had a couple of my bluffs called. I find it's much easier to bluff people with aggro stats 3.0 and above on rivers and easier to bluff the 1.4 and less aggro players on flops. You take your standard 30/10/0.7 fish who cbets 55% of the time and the board comes 5710 and he was the PFR...to me this looks like a good spot to bluff raise the cbet with any four cards because his raising range is weighted heavily towards big pairs. A lot of these players will fold to a strong reraise on the spot.
Against aggro players, they'll have outs on the flop and i think it's harder to get them off of hands on earlier streets. This isn't to say that bluffing the turn with the intent to barrel the river isn't a good strategy, moreso I'm saying against aggro, you have to set up and execute your bluff on multiple streets.
I think your table image has a lot to do with it as well. when I'm running 15/12 over say 50 hands at a table, most people think I'm only raising AA. So when I raise with KQJTds and the board come A38...I feel comfortable barreling multiple streets because of what my perceived range is. Obviously, if someone has AAxx they are agoing to let me know. But I think bluffing is very player specific and I'd love to discuss particular bluff lines against particular players;
would like to hear thoughts from yrmom's hand too, what made you think that would work?
Aye agreed usually far too shallow.
I guess more rationale was:
- My table image is a passive nitty nut chaser at the moment.
- His check on the flop does put quite a lot of air in his range. He's highly likely in the bottom 34% of his flop range.
- Me flatting turn but missing river let's him bluff bet at the river with desperation air, which is sickeningly still good against my zero showdown value.
- His turn bet is too big and looks like a bluff.
Anyway thanks for reinstating the thread.
Difficulty with bluffs in threads is that it can be difficult to describe the meta behind them. However, I'd also love to hear the rationale behind yrmom's shove. I can't even imagine how your thought process ends up at the raise button.
@****74 - I like yours with your AA hand, is solid enough and his turn sizing was asking for it. You can also check call board pairing rivers with showdown value.
@RIdon. Good post. You're right it's villain specific and timing is interesting and key. I also use WTSD as anything below 30%ish is practically begging you to nick the pot on flops and turns. Anything up at 40% is not worth the effort.
Thx for replies, esp to RI Don for deep analysis. Yeah, I think the AAT7 bluff was much more solid but was my T975 bluff that bad? I apologise for the misprint, the board was AT8-K-Q (I have to type HHs manually as my site isn't supported, and I alw confuse the black suits) so the river was blanker. With a Q closing a flush that woulda been a spew, but here flushes didn't close and my PPT hand count shows that sets/pairs+draws that he'll fold are more frequent that broadways he might have (however, it's strange if he's c/r'ing river with them).
I check raised bluffed a guy this week.
He raised pre I called from bb with crap.
Flop j53 rainbow checks around
Turn j I lead 175 he called
Riv 9 I check he bet 225 I raised to 1300 he snap calls with j9
I think against this villain on this turn, it's a good spot to bluff. Villain had shown he was capable of folding and the turn card falls within the range for hands I would call on the flop. It doesn't seem to fall in the range of hands that I would bet then call a 3bet, but I didn't think he was paying that close attention.
On it's own is this a good spot to bluff against a nit? I say yes, but would love to hear some thoughts.
Yep, this thread is true AIDS - it insprires me to create content to post in it
Villain is one of my fav maniacs whose horrible showdowns include 8533ss that cold-called my 3bet, AK52ds that called my 4bet OOP and then 2 barrels with a bare pair of 5's, button 4bet w/AQ83ds. Due to his high preflop aggression, he c(/f) many unimproving flops, and can make disciplined postflop folds on really wet boards in general.
I l/c pre to see a cheap flop on this aggro table as Villain seems to never fold pre, was going to c/r flop because of the blockers and his overall aggression but I'd agree that leading flop was better as a bluff. This hand is a std str8blocker bluff spot, isn't it?
I think I c/c river first hand, he won't fold 2pair+ but will likely checkback 2pair. obv sucks if he spiked a K. This is a pretty ideal flop for c-betting, btw, so u should go for a small c/r with basically ur entire range rather than c/c marginal hands like a weak overpair.
Second hand I'm def c-betting and going from there, ur line is as full o' **** as can be
He prob just decided to give up with his airball or low FD
SB is aggro over the top, his 3bet range from blinds vs me seems very wide, he's had some ds trash on showdown before. It's a bit offtop, but his most famous move at NLHE cash was openshoving 25bb w/AKo from the button But I can't say that he never folds - he often respects my postflop raises.
I don't have many outs vs better overpairs, so I can't flat. Neither are my blockers good, they only reduce the top wrap probability. Still I think it's a std spot for flop raising because the board is paired and fits my preflop flatting range well. So is the bluffshove here good? Thanks!
0.10/0.20 Pot-Limit Omaha Hi, 3 players
BB 27.41 Hero (BTN) 18.82 JJ37
Hero raises to 0.7, SB reraises to 2.3, BB folds, Hero calls
Flop (4.8, 2 players, stack 16.52) 887
SB bets 3, Hero raises to 12
The spoiler contains the result, don't read it before finishing your analysis.
SB reraises to 16.52 all-in, Hero calls
SB shows TT99
Turn 8 River 3
So my bluff was successful in another way: I bluffed with the best hand (the pot odds were slightly against SB as he was a 32/68 underdog according to propokertools.com)!