I wasn't sure if I should have posted this in the beginners section or this forum since its a beginners question, since its a PLO hand I decided to post it here, so go easy on the flaming


6 players, CO open $15 Hero 3-bets to $50 BB folds and CO just calls


The cards will be face up for this

Hero is SB

SB KTJ9 - stack $1318
BB K7QT - Stack $1102

Flop is Q96 Pot is $105

Hero goes ahead and bets $80 into a $105 pot, CO raises to $210 and Hero decides to stack off.

Hero is 53% favorite vs CO

Is this ever a -EV stack off for Hero as a 53% favorite with the cards face up?

It's not possible to have a -EV stackoff in a cash game if you have more than 50% equity.

That's what I understood too but this video explains why its a easy fold and why I am since SB's hand of KTJ9 is a part of SB's range when stacking off.

Video won't load, but that makes zero sense.

Just search it on youtube its a interesting video.

You have the hands switched round here, and quite a lot of things muddled up. Hero has the hand you attribute to Villain.

And it is suggested to bet-fold OOP versus the RANGE of this Villain in this spot, not against his actual hand.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q96

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
KcTcJd9d	47.20%	337	100
Kd7dQhTh	52.80%	383	100

I said Hero is SB in OP just before the action and then went ahead and put him in BB

That said, isn't villain assigned a too strong a range?

Wouldn't KTJ9 be at the top of villains range which seems to have Hero dominated wrap wise but is still actually behind?

My point is we have Top pair with a K kicker and two pair draws with two gutter draws, I'm not sure its a fold and maybe villains range is too strong?

Top of the range hands which really dominate us are 66+.

The range makes up made hands as well as drawing hands (as in this case).

So against this one drawing hand we are flipping, but against his rainge of raise this flop in 3bet pot (to stack off) with SPR 10 we are never in very good shape.

He showed that it was a marginal losing play in this case though....

I'm watching some of his other videos and there really good so in no way having a go at him.

But with this board I just think 66 and 99 don't raise this flop especially since we have the Q blocker so unlikely villain has QQ, and with the straight draws we also block some of them to. He added 66 and 99 in villains range and I am not sure 66 and 99 raise here and why I think maybe villains range is too strong.

I might be totally wrong here though, but I just think its another way to look at assigning ranges and when sometimes we assign a too strong range to other players.

If we exclude the sets (66 99 and QQ) Hero needs 44% to stack off and is 53%

Any one think excluding sets here is wrong since Hero has the Q blocker and the SPR is 10? as i said I don't think villain raises with 66 and 99. Is this the wrong way to assign villain a range for this particular hand?

Rake

This doesn't make any sense. Why would you exclude them? Having a queen cuts down on the top set combos; it doesn't eliminate them entirely or even close.

You have blockers to basically everything, so you should exclude basically everything and end up with 100% equity because villain doesn't have any cards.

Yes, but aren't we giving villain "a too strong a range" if we give him every possible combo every hand?

Isn't it always then going to be biased towards villain doing it this way?

Equity-calculating software automatically accounts for blocked combos.

As in propokertools?

What have I done wrong with these sims How is 66+,Q9:78+,Q:T78+,9:KJT not favorite?

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 96Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QhThKd7d	60.33%	356,002	11,905
66+,Q9:78+,Q:T78+,9:KJT	39.67%	232,093	11,905

You're using PokerJuice's compressed syntax instead of PPT syntax.

66+ should be 66, 99, QQ; Q9:78+ should be Q9:(78,T8,JT); and Q:T78+ should be Q:(T78,JT8,KJT). You have to write things out.

Yes.

oops OK thx


OK

But even with this taken into account, by including sets for villain every time we give him a range, isn't this going to sway equities in his favor every single sim calculation? I'm not saying we shouldn't include any sets, and yeah we do have the Q blocker but OK QQ still should be included but maybe not 66?

For instance for this hand in a SPR pot of 10, on this flop most players with bottom set or even middle set are just calling, so should we not exclude 66 and 99 maybe to lower villains equities sometimes?

I'm just thinking if we add every possible hand combo for villain, villains equities are going to be a bit misleading, as in a bit biased towards him.

Because we know 66 is not raising All-In in a SPR of 10 most times.

Does this make any sense or am I looking it it the wrong way?

Sure, why not.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

2,628,100 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 96Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QhThKd7d	31.79%	794,502	81,682
(66,99,QQ,Q978,T8,JT),QT78,JT8,KJT),9:KJT):40%!3%	68.21%	1,751,916	81,682

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

1,225,900 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 96Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QhThKd7d	34.07%	384,547	66,353
(QQ,(Q9,66,99)78,T8,JT),QT78,JT8,KJT),9:KJT):40%!3%	65.93%	775,000	66,353

66 and 99 only raise when they have an open-ender (which is way too nitty). Equity still only improves by a few %.

Anyway, I'm not going to watch the video, but did ViktorLuis get into fold equity? Like, no one is raising purely for value in this spot.

I think he said villain raise flop stats were 6% and this was a value raise from villain.

From Hero's point of view once Hero c-bet the flop and got raised it was a easy fold. There were two options for Hero All-in or fold, calling was worst option he said.

People say "it's either raise or fold; calling is the worst option" a lot, but that's bad phrasing and should it stop.

What they mean is that calling is never the right option. I.e., that the order of preferences can either be raise > call > fold or fold > call > raise.

But if villain's range is very tight in this spot, it's pretty clear that folding is best, and that of the two worse options, putting in MORE money when in awful shape (raising) isn't preferable to putting in LESS money when in awful shape. I mean, that wouldn't make any sense at all.

I just watched the video again, and he actually didn't say calling is the worse option, instead he said that calling isn't a option after doing the equities etc -- didn't want to put words he didn't say, just a slight edit


!!!!!

Flopping a set in a 3b HU pot usually equates to wanting to stack off... if you are raising flop as a bluff and raising it with many wrap draws then you have to be raising it with at least some of your sets. 66 w/no redraw at all might not raise (and indeed it's good to flat some sets for balance anyway) but 99 is completely standard to want to raise.