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Small Stakes PL Omaha Discussion of 1/2 and below pot-limit Omaha poker

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Old 03-03-2012, 12:47 AM   #1
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Sample Size question

What amount of hands can we say is a good idea of our winnrate. Then how many hands would likely show your true winnrate? Like 50k and 500k?

Oh ya, 6m btw
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Old 03-03-2012, 12:56 AM   #2
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Re: Sample Size question

Nothing under 200K for 6m, a lot less for HU (presuming you generally play the same number of each "player type"), maybe 50K. If you're having a 4 tabling dick swinging contest with another reg that is at approximately your same skill level, maybe 100K to get a much better idea.
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Old 03-03-2012, 01:13 AM   #3
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Re: Sample Size question

reasonable sims here:
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...te_confidence/
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Old 03-03-2012, 01:47 AM   #4
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Re: Sample Size question

if we are discussing net $ won i think if you moved everything back one you would be not too far off

somewhere around 600k for a somewhat decent idea of winrate

maybe 3 million for true winrate

i dunno tho, just guesstimating. if you are playing a lower variance postflop heavy style at lower stakes its probably lower.
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Old 03-03-2012, 11:23 AM   #5
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Re: Sample Size question

Impossible to know in 6-max games. By the time you get enough of a sample size for either one (I think 500k for a solid ballpark estimate, 4 million for something pretty accurate) your own game will have changed significantly, and the conditions in the games you play in will have changed significantly. This assuming you fall somewhere in the range between a really good reg and a small loser. If you're a total monster that absolutely soul crushes everyone around you or a massive fish, you can get more accurate information quite a bit quicker.
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Old 03-03-2012, 11:44 AM   #6
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Re: Sample Size question

Thanks for the input guys. Ive just begun to really grind plo fulltime, finallt made the switch from sngs. And just want to knowmore about swings, winrates, sample sizes, normal below/above ev etc...
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