villain unknown, reggy stats over like ~10 hands and plays 4 zoom entries



More of a theory question so I left the results in because I wanna have a look at it from both sides.

I was actually quite amazed by the following fact:

Hand	Base Count
kcc	11686 (4.32%)
kc!cc	9139 (3.38%)

Does that mean that there really are more hands with the Kc and at least two clubs than there are hands with just the Kc and no other club or do I somehow badly misunderstand PPT syntax? Does that mean I can x/r and triple off any(!) bare Kc and easily balance this with all my Kcc hands? I think I can then even further extend my bluffing range because I won't bluff with all of my Kc!cc hands, i.e. the ones that have SDvalue by the river or on earlier streets.

If this is true, what does that mean for his b/calldown range? Since the Qcc is pretty much the top of his range, he very likely has to call with this. What's the worst flush you'd b/c off in his shoes? Would you still cbet all the medium flushes Jcc-9cc OTF even?

I don't know about the syntax, but you have to account for 3 clubs on the board and 2 in your opponent's hand.

Optimized count is what you want to compare, not base count. It accounts for the cards that are dead.

generally yes. nut blockers can ALWAYS go into your bluff range and most likely SHOULD

Line seems fine to me.

In this case I didn't even input any ranges whatsoever. I mean I did that too and the conclusion was the same but in this case I just counted combos of all starting hands.
And still, I looks very surprising to me that the above holds and then also this:

Hand	Base Count
cc	69667 (25.73%)
c!cc	118807 (43.88%)

What's going on here?

I would need to go through my database for an exact number, but the percentage of times an "average" PLO10 villain will fold to the 3rd barrel on a monotone board, after calling a c/r and a lead, is probably low enough that we're setting money on fire by barrelling.

I honestly don't think the number of folds is higher at higher stakes in that spot

So we should never bluff? So villain should always fold? So we should always bluff?
s.o wcg

Yeah, I thought he'd peel twice and maybe find a fold with his sets and lowest flushes. Could easily be the case that people overdefend here and I'd definitely underbluff heavier the fishier villain is. Still, playing 4 entries and having a tiny hand sample on him he appeared solid enough to go for it at that point in time.
Also wouldn't the turn, maybe even the flop be a better spot to giveup on bluffing if we're not willing to fire 3 on this runout? To me it seems like pretty much everything that calls flop also calls turn.

I never said you should never bluff here. I just wanted to point out that balancing our range here might not be necessary as most villains will call regardless if you have bluffs in your range here or not.

But from a GTO perspective, that's a good spot to bluff sometimes.

Nah, I'd say all 2p and set combos fold the turn, or at least a majority of them.

At least you picked a seemingly thinking player to make this play on so it is an ok play. Against fish or unknowns I'd prob give up OTR.

You implied that OP should never bluff river at PLO10 coz he'd be "setting money of fire".

And against an "average" player I still think we are.

If you look at my next answers you'll see I said that this play can be (is) ok against a thinking player, and finding a solid thinking player at PLO10 isn't easy.

Do you think we should be balancing our range here against unknowns?

If you are sure that a villain will never fold a small flush or set, of course you should never bluff.

Finding such player at my games isn't easy.

I played a bit with PPT and this is what i got:

Raw preflop ranges:




Knowing that villain has at least two clubs in his hand:



In this last scenario, we can see that we have far more combos with the Kc blocker than nut flushes. Also taking into account that to be balanced in the river we cannot go beyond a 2/1 value/bluff ratio, it will seem that we should not be triple barreling more than 37% of our Kc blockers combos.

I think that by barreling most of our Kc blockers we would be overbluffing this spot by a lot and giving villain an easy bluffcatch even with his worst flushes.