^ Thanks for the advice. What's the river plan if he just calls? I should shove all improving rivers, even J, but what about other clubs and total bricks, do I take it right that I should check/fold those because I don't know his bluffing tendencies? (In the actual hand my turn potbet was called and the river was 5, with 60% of the pot size left in his stack.)
That's ghey. When people just call big bets on these boards I find they've got big draws a lot. So maybe he has 2p+fd from the flop, another definite possibility is that he has the 2nd nut straight & is in call down mode. It's gross with so little behind otr but I think c/f could be reasonable, randoms don't bluff in big pots, even when you'd expect em to. In my experience.
Villain is loose passive running 39/10 over 128 hands. I checked back the flop cause I don't think he folds much & I'm not crazy about tripling him. But looking a bit closer I'd say if I cb this board w/ my hand it's more of a vb. Would you agree?
Anyway I stab the turn & I hesitated on the river cause I wasn't sure how much he'd fold his 2pear. (Maybe never cause it's a small pot)
So I figured the risk wasn't worth the reward & checked back figuring I can take the pot down a decent % of the time with my pear.
I think you're taking it down almost never. It's just really hard for him to have a non-paired draw on the river since sd's now have at least 5s and you hold 3 of the hearts.
I inputed a random range of heartdraws, straightdraws, pairs and other stuff and you are good 7% on the river. Heck, vs any 4 cards you're good less than 11%.
So a bluff only has to be slightly +EV to be a better option than checking behind.
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3 2 2 3
CO posts BB OOP, CO checks, BTN calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks
Flop: ($2) A 3 A (4 players)
SB bets $1.42, Hero raises to $6.16, 2 folds, SB raises to $20.38, Hero folds
Spoiler:
Results: $14.32 pot ($0.71 rake)
Final Board: A 3 A
Hero mucked 3 2 2 3 and lost (-$6.66 net)
SB mucked and won $13.61 ($6.95 net)
BTN mucked and lost (-$0.50 net)
CO mucked and lost (-$0.50 net)
I think you're taking it down almost never. It's just really hard for him to have a non-paired draw on the river since sd's now have at least 5s and you hold 3 of the hearts.
I inputed a random range of heartdraws, straightdraws, pairs and other stuff and you are good 7% on the river. Heck, vs any 4 cards you're good less than 11%.
So a bluff only has to be slightly +EV to be a better option than checking behind.
****! Thanks for the reply man, that puts things in perspective. I'm gonna start analyzing my hands more like that in the future.
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3 2 2 3
CO posts BB OOP, CO checks, BTN calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks
Flop: ($2) A 3 A (4 players)
SB bets $1.42, Hero raises to $6.16, 2 folds, SB raises to $20.38, Hero folds
Spoiler:
Results: $14.32 pot ($0.71 rake)
Final Board: A 3 A
Hero mucked 3 2 2 3 and lost (-$6.66 net)
SB mucked and won $13.61 ($6.95 net)
BTN mucked and lost (-$0.50 net)
CO mucked and lost (-$0.50 net)
I like the fold. I thought you got it in for a sec (100bbs) & was going to say if villain gets in AKQ stuff you're fine but you need to have the right image vs him, ie be capable of bluff raising here. (But the flop was 4 ways & limped so thats irrelevant now)
I'd say you're doing badly vs good tags here like always, I could see him shipping A3 being afraid of overcards coming & wanting to shut it down for sure.
I'm wondering if this is an ok spot to bluff.
Villain is 79/3 over ~50 hands. I cb cause I might get enough folds & I don't have much backdoor potential so I figure this is my best chance to take down the pot.
While I think his flop c range is wide (All the way down to 5x/2x & maybe some gut shot stuff) which he'll now fold I also think he has Tx/straight draws/fds that he won't fold now & that'll leave me in an awkward spot otr, so I pot to check figuring I could take the pot down with a bet sometimes.
So all his draws bricked & I'm unsure how often my A hi will be good at showdown. So it's a question of how many 2x/5x he has here cause I doubt Tx will fold. I bet on the bigger side cause I didn't want him to get tempted.
Any pointers here? Sorry if I'm a bit all over the place, it's been a long day!
Envoy, i wouldn't be betting turn unless i had designs on certain river bluffs. Given however how difficult it is to assign this villain an accurate range, and how little equity we have, im not shutting down turn.
The river entirely depends on villain. It basically depends on what awful line of logic he uses to reach his decision. You rep nothing (You never ever ever have Kx here) but we can assume villain probably isn't clever enough to realise this. The bet in a vacuum is terrible for sure.
Envoy, i wouldn't be betting turn unless i had designs on certain river bluffs. Given however how difficult it is to assign this villain an accurate range, and how little equity we have, im not shutting down turn.
The river entirely depends on villain. It basically depends on what awful line of logic he uses to reach his decision. You rep nothing (You never ever ever have Kx here) but we can assume villain probably isn't clever enough to realise this. The bet in a vacuum is terrible for sure.
Definitely terrible in a vacuum.
Would you say a random donk with his stats folds enough on average otr?
So basically his range is so all over the place you're firing again? Kind of?
Wondering what your river plan is, on 's I'd imagine you're checking, 's probly bet & check most straight cards (that we don't hit on)
Are you bluffing bricks?
Each of these guys has 50+ vpip and 30- PFR, and they were all very passive (<40 Agg Fq). SB is the most aggresive, he has also been flaming in the chat and telling the donks they are donks. He will 3bet more than AA**
@meepwn: well played. They're passive so they won't bluff the river, your turn bet defends your hand from straightdraws and overpairs (I suppose they're so horrible that they'll call), you have sufficient odds vs flushes so you won't fold either on the turn or the river. Anyway so little is left on the turn that either move isn't a big mistake, but calling the flop is definitely better than shoving - you could save money should a bad turn have come.
Steamers are sw33t and raise my mood , especially when someone else replies to them, doing the tilting job for me. I don't know whether SB calls you names or not, but I'm a donk in such players' opinion and that's close to truth yet.
Quote:
He will 3bet more than AA**
That's the right way to go. I've never seen you 3bet (given 21 chance), maybe you were dealt bad hands in this tiny sample but I suspect you 3bet too tight.
I've never seen you 3bet (given 21 chance), maybe you were dealt bad hands in this tiny sample but I suspect you 3bet too tight.
Ofc I 3bet more than AA** The better kings, queens, rundowns and of course 4 broadway cards. I don't really like 3betting hands like KK53ss or QQT7r especially oop. But there are certainly some players on my tables who 3bet like 5% over a big sample which is pretty much exactly aces.
Two Plus Two
, but what about other clubs and total bricks, do I take it right that I should check/fold those because I don't know his bluffing tendencies? (In the actual hand my turn potbet was called and the river was 5
, with 60% of the pot size left in his stack.)
4
, especially when someone else replies to them, doing the tilting job for me. I don't know whether SB calls you names or not, but I'm a donk in such players' opinion 
and that's close to truth yet.
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