Quote:
Originally Posted by danny2241
Other people here could answer these questions alot better than me but I found that he spends alot of time talking about stuff that just doesn't seem to happen alot and some of his advice is super nitty.
Does anyone know what the odds are of actually flopping a draw similar to what's in the op?
Back of the napkin type math, looking at hands like J_9_76 (two disconnected top gaps) on flops like T85 which fill both gaps and hit right below the bottom card.
Flops range from 752 (with 8_6_43) to QT7 (with K_J_98) [6 basic variations of hands and flops]
Odds of holding one of those hands: roughly 175-1 and then it is 269-1 against hitting the flop we need. And this ignores all the suits, so it's probably even worse than it appears.
So combined, this should happen once every 47,630 hands?
Math: There are 256 combinations of each starting hand. There are 270,725 different combinations of starting hands. 270725/(256*6) = 176.25 or 175.25:1 against. When we have a starting hand, we need 3 specific cards to flop. I think that is something like (12/48)*(8/47)*(4/46) which is 384/103776 or 1/270.25 -> 269.25:1 against.