Example
6max

A 40BB stack opens 3bb on the BTN

You hold QdQc6c6h in SB and cover

What is the most +EV move?


Example 2

Same scenario but you 3bet and get jammed on

This hand should have 35% equity vs aces or kings but he might not even have that hand - so it's 30bb more BB to win 81bb. (dead 1BB post)


I had a lot of trouble in this spot today and wasn't sure what the best play was.

I did end up 3betting but wasn't sure if it was correct. Not sure if folding is better

This was on bovada by the way at NL50 if that maters at all - since all players are anonymous

3bet or fold? looks like a very easy call to me...

It has ~32.5% vs. AAxx. I'd definitely get it in for 40bbs. People open lightly and overvalue things. It has 43% vs. top 10% of hands.

43=/ 63

I don't get it. I know the expression but unsure where this 63% comes from.

1. You said we have 43% vs top 10% which info is irrelevant in this case I think.
2. If this info would be relevant why is it good to push 43% pre?

anyway i dont think its a supergood 3bet oop

well, as naggeri said, not relevant here, but if it would be, it wouldn´t be a great argument for gii here, right?

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AAxx	66.29%	395,766	3,902
100%	33.71%	200,332	3,902

I would just call from the sb and 3b from the bb. I wouldn't like to play this hand oop multiway in case the bb cold called our 3b.
If we 3b and bu jammed I think we have to call it off no?

3 bet and call

This is nonsense.

Call is standard. Can 3b if BTN is opening super wide (and obviously GII vs 4b)

I ran some maths on it as it looked an interesting spot.

This is my model.

-I got BTN opening 50%.
-I assume he 4bets top 10% as he's short and for simplification.
-I got him folding 5% .
-He's calling the rest of the time ( 35% of the time).

Besides , i got BB cold 4 betting w a 3% range. Vs such a tight range our eq is so low that we got to fold. We need around 36%-37% to stack off , so even if we widen range to 4 or 5%, we still got to fold and our EV is even lower than in this model.

The tricky part was calculating what's our EV when we're called. For this i just used my DB about my performance when 3 betting QQ wo an A or K vs BTN. I got 150bb/100. This is very debatable plus i don't have many hands in this DB.

For the EV calculation , i use the method of our final stack sizes ( let's assume for simplification that we start with a 40bb stack which doesn't change much the maths beside the spots of when villain is cold 4 betting and we have enough stack size to call there)


-So when we're facing a 4b from BTN (10%) , we get it in cause we have 42% as mentioned before.
-When he just calls our final stack size 40+1,5 =41,5 final ( because winrate in my db in that spot is 150bb/100)
-When he folds we get his 3bb + 1bb from BB. Final stack 44

All this happens 97% of the time when BB doesn't cold 4b. When BB cold 4b , i will ignore when BTN gets it in as this a prob a break-even spot. After BTN folds, we only have 32% eq vs the 3% range and we have to fold. Since we've 3 betted to 10bb, our final stack is 30bb.

So

EV= 0.97*(((40*2+1)*0.4243)*0.2+41.5*0.7+44*0.1)+0.03* (30) = 40.01395

So under those very loose assumptions, 3 betting seems to yield a 0.014bb profit. Very small , i expected more. So calling seems to be the best play if we can get a better profit ( i cannot prove this but seems pretty clear to me), and folding is out of question .

PD: Blockers effect will raise his 4b freq to 3,12% instead of 3% since we don't block any A or K, but not relevant here . If anything it lowers our EV even more.

Feel free to criticize the model and my wild assumptions as we might get a more accurate picture. ( or any calculations error i could have made)

wow that looks like it took all day

Looks like 10-20 minutes worth of work.

+1.5 bb when your 3b gets called is pretty dire with QQ66 here, tbh. If you make it +3 bb, which sounds more reasonable to me, the EV of 3-betting with that model is +1 bb, which is commensurate, intuitively, with that of flatting.

lol, one thing I've noticed is that half of the time when someone says "3-bet or fold" (preflop) or "this is a raise or fold spot" (postflop), it's nonsense.

If there is an error in Rorona's analysis perhaps it is here?

"The tricky part was calculating what's our EV when we're called. For this i just used my DB about my performance when 3 betting QQ wo an A or K vs BTN. I got 150bb/100. This is very debatable plus i don't have many hands in this DB."

Over all it seems pretty sound. If the EV of three betting and the EV of calling is the same then probably calling is better, since it is a much lower variance route. If we three bet we will probably end up getting it in on the flop with a wide range of equities, both low and high, whereas when we call and especially if the BB comes along we will probably not be stacking off in nearly as many marginal situations, since the pot will be much smaller and we will often be three way.

We also might want to invite BB into the pot if he is a fish and liable to make some horrendous post flop mistakes. Of course if BB is a whale or super whale he might cold call two bets with a high frequency, which would change the analysis as well.

Yes, i think the 150bb part is not so unsound but where was a small mistake...

Because when we fold, hem2 doesn't register it as 0bb/100 but rather at -50 or -100b/100 depending if we are in the SB or BB.

So in my calculation we should add at least 0,5bb to the final stack of 41,5bb but i agree with rei that 150bb might be conservative there... 200 to 250bb/100 might be more accurate yielding a 42,5 or 43 final stack in the calculations.

So 3 betting is worth 0.7 to 1bb depending on how you view the situation and flatting yield similar results. Since EV are very close, we should take on action or the other based on more specific reads (for ex villain opens wider or tighter than the model). Readless, u can just do whatever you feel like.