Hey, this is not specific to PLO but I'm giving a PLO example so I'm posting it here.
MP: 136.2 BB
CO: 528.6 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 99.6 BB
UTG: 158.2 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J
A
A
T
UTG raises to 3 BB,
MP raises to 10.4 BB,
fold,
Hero raises to 35.6 BB,
fold,
fold, UTG calls 32.6 BB,
MP calls 25.2 BB
Flop: (108.2 BB, 3 players) 8
2
4
UTG checks,
MP checks,
Hero bets 64.4 BB and is all-in,
fold,
MP calls 64.4 BB
Turn: (237 BB, 2 players) J
River: (237 BB, 2 players) 3
MP shows 6
9
7
T
(High Card, Jack)
(Pre 32%, Flop 27%, Turn 40%)
Hero shows J
A
A
T
(One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 68%, Flop 73%, Turn 60%)
Hero wins 225.2 BB
Rake paid 11.8 BB
MP is faced with my allin CB on the flop with UTG folded. He has 27% equity against my hand and in this case lets assume he knows what I have exactly.
In the same time to make this a breakeven call MP only needs 27% equity as well(pt4 calculates it and we can do it ourselves like risking 64bb to win 237bb = 64/237 = 27%). So without rake this would be a breakeven call.
This means EV of folding = EV of calling I assume?
And here's what I don't understand. If MP folds on the flop he will lose his intial preflop investment of 35.6bb. If he calls he will:
win 237bb 27% of the tim 0.27*237
lose 100bb 73% of the time 0.73*-100
(0.27*237)+(0.73*(-100))=-9bb
So when he calls his EV is -9bb and this looks a lot better than -35.6bb when it should be the same? What am I missing?