Given SPR you can just shove and expect about 38% - int he long run villains strategy is not going to be any good unless he has AA himself (he has misculated his sizings just barely and can't expect to get mistakes postflop) - if you are auto shoving any flop you will win with the preflop investment in general. This sizing is very hard to play against post flop. It is a very powerful strategy in general to buy flops on defined boards. It is very interesting actually. Flop is definitely close... You can fold because he didn't check raise... which I tihnk is right quite alot of the time as CR = strength and half pot = semi bluff. However, good players are ttricking you, and its so variable. No way to get reads really without knowing the player.
Preflop, with this stack size you need to hit one of your 1/3 boards , with the two 6's it's not actually that helpful. Going the route of bluff catch can cost a lot relative to preflop investment. Against a min raise UTG you can afford to pot your whole 3b range so I don't mind potting but if you are a nit and he sees this then i don't like it as he sees the AA weight and your 66 has very little deception value keeping in minds remaining implied odds even when you hit a 6, you also have literally nos straight equity whatsoever. Preflop is not a bad spot to just set mine an A, you could also just raise to 2.5 and achieve this.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AsAc6h6s | 66.25% | 397,493 | 0 |
50%!aa** | 33.75% | 202,507 | 0 |
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AsAc6h6s | 61.54% | 369,218 | 0 |
50%!aa** | 38.46% | 230,782 | 0 |
This flop definitely is towards his range as his equity increases, + this sim is above expectation if villain is thinking player who is not min raising most of his A*** preflop and choosing hands which have good equity vs the 5 chances of AA popping up with aggression.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AsAc6h6s | 33.21% | 199,258 | 0 |
50%!aa**J,TT,KQ,Q98T) | 66.79% | 400,742 | 0 |
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AsAc6h6s | 38.77% | 232,600 | 0 |
50%!aa**J,TT,KQ,Q98T,QQ,2222,8899,7799,6699) | 61.23% | 367,400 | 0 |
33% is not actually enough so against and reg who is cehckraising the top of their range you can shove. Against some players who are very skilled would just applaud them and muck.
Start putting some gut shot/OESD into his donk range and its very much nicer
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AsAc6h6s | 40.77% | 244,613 | 0 |
50%!aa**J,TT,KQ,Q98T,AQ,Q9) | 59.23% | 355,387 | 0 |
[table]
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
Last edited by Mt.FishNoob; 04-10-2015 at 10:28 AM.