Not much info on the villain, dont think he's a reg, plays like 32/17 over 130 hands.
Was kinda hesitant to post this hand as its so much read/timing/gut feeling based, but it still bothered me so I guess I would like to hear some oppinions.




oh and btw I'm not really interested in the "fold pre" comments.

I think you played it well because he minraised flop already repping very thin. Then the only reason he'd pot turn I would think is because he wants to get your entire stack and then he confirms this by potting river again where most bluffs (who are not ******ed) would give up by this point, so yeah I think it's a fold OTR. A lot of weaker players at PLO50 would call those bets with your hand and maybe villain knew this so he uses this exploitable betsizing, which I guess is good vs population. But you're too good to call here...

The only reason I see to call is if you think this guy is capable of bluffing and he knows who you are so he "wants to bluff this mid/highstakes reg and outplay apo one time".

LOL, or unless you know he was tilted, but given that we don't know any of this I think it's a fold.

in b4 fishnoob posts fold pre?

My thoughts would be top of my range + BTN having a stack that big and stats loosish means he's not a nit and probably capable of bluffing. Doubt he m-r flop with top set and doubt he almost pots turn if he did. So he's obv repping 82 of which how many combos of that does he have in his pre-flop range? Not many.

I think his line looks bluffy and I'm pretty much snapping I think. Only thing I'm really worried about is him showing up with 455x (maybe had A455 w nfd OTT)

it's close

I would expect a 32/17 at plo50 to show up with 88** like 85%+ of the time here.

Was in this spot at plo10 recently btw but in a hu pot and tanked forever and called and villain had just the 8 blocker but his raise flop% was something bizzarely high which made it simpler when I noticed that..

how is this top of my range? I dont think I've capped my range at all here - can easily have both quads and 8s full here.

for me this is 88xx or 8xxx, and a person pot-pot'ing turn and river with 8x (for almost 500bb total) just seems very unlikely.

btw does anyone fold turn?

hey this is non gapped rundown, not some K754 ****.Still you are literally 100% on the bottom of every texture by the river except quads/str8 flush which is some uphill swimming. 'oh look I have a full house and might have to fold' - up stream swimming.

Pretty sick board run out....

Is aggression factor not viable at only 130 hands? If it's over 50% I'm calling river. His range is pretty polarised and if he is bluffing he can only pot size on the river seeing as you called turn. But this also screams value from 88 aswell.

Tough spot. 88 33 82. Are people raising this sizing with 88 on this flop? It seems kind of decent actually. I think I end up calling to be honest, can't be that bad. When big stacks collide in zoom people tend to get spewy.

not the river aggression factor, unfortunately

Sorry, should/meant to say close to top of your range! Quads is v unlikely given you open/call a 3b (unless you have some double pair hand like QQ22) - 88 I imagine with how deep you are you 3b flop a decent % but can ofc still have some 88.

Do you not discount 88 somewhat from villains range with how he played it? m-r flop then pot turn when board pairs just seems v strange line for 88 to take w/o history. Admittedly, it also seems unlikely for him to pot turn/pot river as a bluff this deep but I'd just look at his stack size + stats and assume he's capable of such a play. Lots of bluffers like to bluff pot as Omaha_Boy mentioned a few times at NL50 whereas value hands people tend to bet less than pot.

He might also be a 2+2 lurker and have seen your stream and just want to pull off a sick bluff.

i probably call turn and fold river. 83 or 8xxx is possible sure but i'm not giving a random player at PLO50 with decentish stats credit for doing that here, or for spazzing out.

i think a lot of players might feel like that they have to bluff with 83 or whatever they raised flop with on the turn but then will get scared when you call turn and shut down with their bluffs / not be able to pull the trigger bluffing for 200-300 bbs.

^were kinda my thoughts, certainly not a lot of people have the cohones to bluff 3.5bi on the river into a guy who obviously has something

and i've seen lots of ppl minraise top sets on dry boards (especially in 3bet pots), including a couple of weaker regs

idk, that would seem like a suicide bluff,
it's not like you call that turn with some marginal mid over+fd type of hand from villains percpective

As I said, it's not the m-r flop alone that makes me discount 88 but the m-r then pot when the board pairs, since he's only ever getting value if you have 23. If he m-r then 2/3-3/4 turn and pot river I would be way more worried about 88.

I do agree with you that not a lot of ppl have the cohones to bluff 3.5bi OTR tho so maybe that outweighs the fact it's pretty unlikely he plays 88 like this. Would you discount him having the same hand - something like A235?

Also, is there a river bet-sizing that would make you call here?

problem is with hero flatting flop villian is going to be barreling that turn 100% and on river hero never has the nuts especially if he has an 8 or a deuce blocker it is actually very easy for him to pot the river and bluffing half pot just seems super bad even tohough it is a better value size. his afq will generally pivot it, even his flop afq

when hero flatting turn it does indeed he needs big cajones to bluff. There is no reason for him to pot size his turn barrel though unless he is building a value pot (considering depth it pis perfectly viable to pot his 88) and maybe it is that villain is not thinking about building a better bluff on river. I think we good here >33% of the time but I guess to be truly sick in poker you got to be perfect on river.

What a sicko. I think he's turned up with a bigger boat here clicked flop coz he wants to raise to induce then just mashed pot with nuts with no regard for proper sizing.

Yeah i think this minr flop and pot turn river is close to never a bluff ... so i think i could find a meh fold on the river.
Obv he could overplay some 2 combos if he is a fish but I need more info to call it off normally.

I call. I mean a straight should check behind but against an unknown that's not something I would rule out at all. Given we're about an SPR of 1 on the river villain is probably potting his range.

I rather make a "bad call" then a "bad fold" atleast then we get info on what his spazzing out with. His lines are so wierd, why pot turn+river if you have the nuts!? I guess he can pot AAdxd OTT and then get stubbern and ship river, but i would expect him to check back that hand OTR since his IP.... Also i dont see that many 88,83 combos in his 3b range.

Villain never has a straight.... but he could (imo) have the same hand... that, coupled with maybe a 25% chance of having a bluff still makes me think this is a call.

+1
fold turn (it hurts but saves money), this line from a 32/17 (nut peddler) was never anything else but Top set.

Edit: I call this line "I want max value-line"

Also, going back to being at the top of our range and apo disagreeing - it's more relevant to what villain thinks is the top of our range... most villains will just assume you never have 88 or quads here (even if you do) and so will be more likely to bluff than if he believed we could have them hands. He will assume you are capped at 2x or 25/23 and so he knows his bluff sizing OTR has to be big to get you to fold them hands.

This info call for 300bb river bet is nonsense.

32/17 = nut peddler? I play with pretty similar stats and I'm pretty sure no one would call me that

villain didnt 3bet preflop btw

anyways, as i thought the oppinions are pretty split. 1 thing is for sure - this is a close spot.

I think this kind of thinking is very dangerous and costly regarding an unknown fishy player..
He will assume what?? normally he assume nothing just plays his hand. Until you get any info of the opposite just try to get cheaply showdowns vs him or check some hands in the replayer but dont take wrong conclusions based on your "feel".

Yeah laughed hard .
I think you can show him some really nutpeddler stats from z500. (With ~18 vpip)