Hi!

Villain is 54/24/16,7 AF 2,2 fold to cbet 75 over a very small sample. Don't know how good the open is pre, but I decided the BTN's sample wasn't big enough to draw any definite conclusions. Should I fold? SB was 28/19/5,5 and BB 40/20/20 over very small sample.

Is it reasonable to say that OTF it's better to cbet than to c/c b/c we need protection and don't really have many outs to improve? And bet bigger OTF?

OTT I think this is clear value/protection bet, but should I bet bigger?

River is not a total blank but I don't expect too many 235wraps in villains range. So given that villain didn't 3bet pre which rules out most AA and that he didn't raise turn which rules out some KT (of course not all of them) he has QQ and JJ which he can valuebet (don't know if he would pot it though) and missed FDs. Can we call this river bet?

Thanks!

Ignore small samples in future as even a 17/9/2 nit can sometimes look like a LAG after a couple orbits. (bigger sample sizes more closely approximate true tendencies).

When you bet flop/ turn and check river, what do you expect? Sometimes it goes x/x and we get a free showdown and nearly always win the hand. If we bet river here, we get called by value hands that think they're good enough of the time to call our bet, and we get raised by hands at the top of his range (nuts and other really strong value), and I guess *some* bluffs depending on how agg. villain can be in this spot. If we check here OTR we open ourselves up to be both value bet and bluffed (with hands that either beat us or we're way ahead of) and x'd back from hands that can't value bet + don't need to bluff (showdown value) or some hands that are just giving up and don't expect enough folds to justify said bluff.

So in this spot villain reps a bluff from all of his missed draws (mostly flush draws) and value bets from odd slow-played sets and KT. I think villains raise flops often with sets, and if not decide to x/c flop raise turns. If villain has KT here, he surely has to have some other equity with it, perhaps AKT, KJT4, KTxx w/ hearts etc (fair few combos) and I think those hands really want to raise turns as well. When we x river, villain can bluff all of his missed flush draws, even some TT or odd KK combos as well. Not sure villain ever turns a weak 2p or pair into a bluff here super often either.

Kinda close, but I lean more towards a call tbh, depending on villain's general tendencies. I fold against passive/ nitty players.

i really don't see many 235 hands calling the turn. could be 23 w/ some sort of hearts, but how does he even enter the pot and call down w/ this. 23 w/ nut hearts very unlikely, could be KK23 w/ nut hearts i guess. maybe he slowplayed u on flop or turn. or just busted hearts. i would call river but not too excited about it.

I rather make a "bad" call then a "bad" fold. I'm calling river here 100%, not because i think i'll win 100%, but i'm willing to pay $19.20 for the information of WHAT villain is potting river with, and i'll tell you, that $19.20-information-call will print you alot of buyin in the future.