Quote:
Originally Posted by Kreatief
I was about to fold to the BB overcall.
BB hardly showed up with a rundown did he? And yeah, BTN has AA a decent amount but us holding AA reduces the combos he can have and makes it more likely he is holding a premium rundown or AKK type hand. Just to give you an example... 1st sim is BB, 3rd is BTN. And I gave BB a super tight range which isn't the case here and BTN only a 3% 4b.
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
10%!(KK, QQ, JJ) 32.61% 186,537 18,276
AdAhQd5s 39.00% 192,677 82,698
3% 28.39% 135,706 69,383
Worst case scenario is we have 30.63% equity - for that to be the case BB would have to be a very nitty player only flatting 4b in that spot with super premium DS rundowns and a read on BTN that he is only ever 4b AA. Even then, we would at least have to call.
If we had AA72r in the same described spot as above then we can definitely consider folding. But like I said you still need good reads for that to be the case (and by good, I mean you seen him 4b at least 5 times with them all being AA)
edit: Basically, what apo said. WP.