unsure about this

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2/$4 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37351582

Hero (CO): $178.30 (44.6 bb)
BTN: $566.90 (141.7 bb)
SB: $953.73 (238.4 bb)
BB: $665.87 (166.5 bb)
UTG: $243.54 (60.9 bb)
MP: $652.91 (163.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T 7 A J
2 folds, Hero raises to $14, BTN calls $14, SB folds, BB calls $10

Flop: ($44) T 3 A (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32, BTN calls $32, BB folds

Turn: ($108) Q (2 players)
Hero ?

Check/fold. You should get some checkbacks from QT and random Ace often enough that you aren't completely giving up. If button is aggressive enough you can c/r flop to make things easy on yourself.

? If your stack is 44bb so basically ~1psb left i would just pot it most of the time.(90%) (Unless bu is a huge nit or something)
But honestly i am not good at shortstacking. W 100bb i would check it
/ why were you the shortest at the table? Were you the spot? /

isn't the button more likely to have fd's then wraps here? I would think with this stack this would be real close given button prob 3bs a lot of broadways

x/f turn seems really weak to me, especially since there's probably some hands that bet turn when checked to that we're still ahead of. There's also hands that will check back turn that we can still be value betting against.

doing some math x/f seems pretty bad - villan has a ton of fd's....id prob just ship turn

anyone actually having an idea on how to do the math correctly? or am I just supposed to pick myself the opinion I like the most?

and nag, I am always the spot

i guess we need some more info/stats on villain?
whats his:
BU VPIP
BU Call vs COsteal
BU 3bet vs COsteal

there are still some hands we are ahead of that will call a shove obv
also some KcQcTx hands or something which might shove if you check

kk, fair enough, villain is pretty tight straightforward reg,
cold calls co open from btn 21%, 3bets co open from btn 7%, overall 24/16/4,4 over 2k hands.

Pretty interesting spot. Id suggest using some range tools to figure out how our range does against his. Its a turn thats prolly better for him than for us, but overall we should outrange him. He should be more likely to have KJ than us, but we are way more likely to have AA/TT/AT and prolly also AQ..

Im just thinking out loud here and as said I would suggest using some range tools and/or PJ to analyse it. But my gut feeling is that we should smash the pot button with a very large part of our range - if not all of it...

We're slightly better than flipping against our opponent's turn range so its a little weird to think we'd be value-betting. At best pot/calling is just a better alternative to check/folding or check/shoving.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

643,080 trials (Exhaustive)

board: TA3Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhJhTs7s	53.04%	312,375	57,482
7%-28% & (A***, *c*c**, KJQ*, KKJ*, KKQ*, QQJ*, QQK*)	46.96%	273,223	57,482

Between check/calling and check/folding it all comes down to how you want to discount flush draws. If villain flats his draws 100% (which is unlikely) and then also bets his draws 100% (also unlikely) we barely have odds to check/shove instead of check/fold.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

427,040 trials (Exhaustive)

board: TA3Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhJhTs7s	42.28%	170,740	19,611
7%-28% & (AQ**, KJQ*, AKJ*, KKJ*, *c*c**)	57.72%	236,689	19,611

But even vs someone with solid stats, there's always a chance he'll do something weird with a random ace, and if he's at least *sometimes* betting flush draws we're never that far behind the 35% or whatever we need for a check/shove to be better than check/fold. Can't fault anyone for taking the "just don't fold" route when its close, and I'm sure not folding is also GTO, but vs a solid PLO400 player I just don't see ourselves getting either loose calls or inducing nonsensical bluffs.

Some points:

1) Betsize on the flop. I'm not that much into shortstack strategy, but I think we have to pot the flop once we bet.
2) From the math I've done; Jamming our entire cbet-range seems like a good business on any non- turn
3) It's not like we are crushing any hands calling our shove, but people underestimate value of taking down a lot of bb's
4) I'd prefer to take the "GTO-line" any day in a spot like this.

Also, NMcNasty - you might wan't to adjust your ranges a bit

You're free to post your adjustments, but again, main difficulty is discounting flush draws especially since stack sizes are so ripe for a semibluff shove on flop. Our equity only decreases as we subtract draws from villains range.

^KKJ, QQJ, QQK, KKQ^

Doesn't make a difference, the pair+gutshot combos both hit KJ and miss completely so its pretty much a wash. Also notice I didn't use all the KJ combos (KJT*, KJ3*, JJK*).

I think you made a mistake on flop by not betting pot, its 3way ,you are short. As played, you should take a look and think about villains preflop range, What goddam AQ he has? in the 7% 3bet there is good amount of AQxxds taken , then if he didnt 3bet pre some hands he was supposed to,on flop he is most likely shoving AKQJ+fd,AQT+fd, AT+gutshot/fd , perhaps naked AT but shouldnt have many besides AJT9,AT98,AT97,AT87,AT99 (some of them are also 3bet) , and then draw portion of his range takes out alot of nfds , overall taking many KJ/AQ hands out both preflop+flop. I am struggling to see how anything is better than just to effectively jam turn.

ship turn, not close