This. With position and two checks.

It's a bit counter-intuitive but:
A. Yes villain is bluffing the river 100% of the time with the Ace blocker
B. The decision-point to be discussed is if river is a call.
C. This still does not mean that river is a call.

Villain will have this spot solved sooo hard, including sizings of both river and earlier streets and his frequency of bluffs and value.

I actually think that discussion could be more so about what hero's range is here, what other hands than KKxx do we have and what do we do with them? What implications does that have on what villain can do vs us?

I'm drunk

I don´t play 2k crushers. None of us do. OP please tell us what his range is here, what your bet, calling and 3!ing range on the flop look like.

Well, his range should be Ahxxx. He might be doing this with Qhxxx, but I'm not sure (and he probably doesnt tbh)

As for my range, I'm betting top and mid set, top 2p, flushes and any hand with a heart 10 or above. flop 3b range obviously contains Ah. this is obviously not set in stone as i might check some of these hands from time to time

I´ve never played this high and I never will, but didn´t you basically telegraph your hand range (non-nut flush or set) all the way, hence making a river shove obligatory for villain?

He should have some bluffs in his range, no?

Obvioulsy he has some bluffs in his range, if he didnt there would be no point for this thread right? The whole question is whether he has enough of them to warrant a call.

Well, actually by the same logic there is no point to this thread since you revealed his screen name and nobody here knows how he plays better than you. He might be bluffing too little or too much here or just enough to make you indifferent, but nobody could say that. And even if someone could (i.e. another plo2k reg) it would actually be unethical to say it here.

thank you

Honestly i dont know the right play here but usually i am a cs in this spot vs very wide ranges.

I'll try some useless math for ****s and giggles.

Let's say he always has Ah here. There are 40 cards we don't know in this hand. 9 of them is a heart. He flatted the 3bet, so we can discount AA. So there are 39*38*37 combos of hands for villain. That's 54834. There are 30*29*28 combos which don't contain another heart. That's 24360. That means he'd have just the blocker 44,4% time he has the ace. You need to have him bluffing a bit over 27% of the time for a call to be profitable.

What are villain's tendencies? Folded to him on the button, he probably opens very wide, suited to the ace or not. So we can't discount blocker hands at this stage. How much does he fold to 3bets? Probably less when he has a suited ace than when not.

Do we expect villain to take this line a smaller amount of the time with the nuts or the blocker. Or is the ratio the same?

If we expect him to never fold a suited ace before the flop, and play his nut flushes and nut blockers this way every time, he should fold about 38,5% of his nut blocker hands pre-flop.

Gj Jabo. Imo villain is folding <5% preflop in this spot. It is kind of an interesting river though, given the low number of Ax-kombinations left with river/our blocker.

Also, Hero's range should not be capped.

It might be stating the obvious here but if we expect him to be well balanced here aren't small flushes a better candidate for calling river? Not because they beat his value range but because they make it a touch more likely that hes got the bare ace.

In a spot like this though the bigger question is one of history surely. Have you played many hands with ansky? Is there anything about how he is likely to perceive you which might weight his range one way or the other? If you are unknown to him would he be more or less likely to bluff this spot against someone who he might assume is weaker or decent but possibly scared (if you are not a 10/20 reg).

I honestly have no idea if these assumptions are valid though. Just thinking out loud via text.

You don't need the Ah to bet against the Ah. He is only laying 4:15 or whatever and the Ah in heros range is now where near 4:15

absolute noobz

Question: Why not reraise pot on flop? Of course villain can have the nuts but you are never far behind with topset. Assuming that villian is bluffing x% of his range and has also some small flushes (which he "maybe" folds against a reraise) makes this play not that bad i think. If villian folds about 30% of his hand to a reraise this play is getting profitable. Doesn`t sound impossible for me.

Sorry if this thought is stupid but i think i would prefer to start the battle. This minraise on flop stinks a bit like he is trying to get informations. And on turn also. And river looks like "only chance to take it down is to put it in".

edit: not playing on these limits. So this is only the thought of a stupid small stakes player who like to learn a bit from the big sharks. ;-)

Very much doubt he would raise small flushes/raise for "information". Potting flop is dumb because you narrow his range to only continue with the nuts and fold the hands you actually want him to have.


As for the hand, I play it the same

If villain is always raising the ace of hearts on the flop (and nothing else) and always barreling the turn with this range, then the ratio of nuts to air on the river will depend solely on his preflop opening range. I have run some numbers.

80% opening range: 58% nuts.
70% opening range: 60% nuts.
60% opening range: 62.6% nuts.
50% opening range: 65.2% nuts.

If he's not ditching some bluffs along the way then we can take our pot odds and call. I agree with sauhund that from our perspective, this is the exact hand type we want to be calling until the river and then fold, since it has equity vs anything but it doesn't have a single heart. Our range should have a decent amount of bluffcatchers that contain at least one heart, so using this hand for bluffcatching implies that we're calling with pretty much our entire river range.

If Ansky's strategy in this spot is to raise all Ah and barrel off all the time, then the best counter strategy against that would be to call down with anything. There are superior strategies for his point of view if he wants to raise a polar range on the flop.

Sorry, but i find it a bit harsh to say that it`s dump to pot this on flop. I think it`s our of question that it is possible that villian played air, nut blocker, straight draw or whatever. The question is: how often he does this? I have only read about it and seen it in some videos of higher stakes that monotone boards are points of interest for attacking.

The chances that he had the flush are about 30% if i looked right. So 70% of the time villian is dog against our KK on the flop. If we assume that villian is making this "minreraise"-play on the flop 50% of the times he has no flush then potting on flop is ok. And villian for sure knows that it is more likely that both missed the flush. Our hero knows villain better and his plays on monotone boards. I think this information is key to "solve" this whole hand and without it we are only guessing. But one is nearly for sure in my opinion: The nuts villian didn`t have. Too small the bets on flop and especially on turn.

I dont`t know this guy and i don`t know how the "lines" are but isn`t there also some little foldequity if hero pots it even if villain has the flush? If villian would fold 10% of his flushes it would add some extra value to potting the flop. Imagine you are villian playin 4567. Would you feel very well to get it in on the flop then with the risk to get crushed.

I like this hand by the way and i don`t say that it is wrong to call to river and fold. I am only trying to think about options.

Even if potting the flop could be profitable, it can still be dumb at the same time.

@Controlling

Repotting flop screws Hero's range. This hand is way to good to bluff.

True. But i am still not sure if potting the flop is more profitable. Have to put some thoughts and calcs in it. I not as fast as you guys. Kind of a degen...

Controlling, villain never has a low flush here. Nor does he ever have air or straight draw (without the blocker).

betting vs checking this flop is really interesting and sort of similar to the other thread with top set i posted.


i don't think this is a good board for villain to bluff with the naked ace after you 3-bet pf on this Kxx board and then cbet the flop.

Everything you said makes this sound like a perfect opportunity to do so.

Not related to main topic, but Does villain take this flop and turn line with a wider range than flop turn river line?
With what kind of hands? Also air?
Also, does your line affect on the way villain plays flop and turn and river?

The answer is only 'no' for people who either suck or are attempting to exploit bad play.