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PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot?

08-28-2014 , 07:42 AM
Full Tilt - $0.25 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 50 BB (VPIP: 21.65, PFR: 16.49, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 98)
MP: 104.32 BB (VPIP: 28.63, PFR: 15.32, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 252)
CO: 135.92 BB (VPIP: 30.88, PFR: 22.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 70)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.51, PFR: 7.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 272)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 59)
Hero (BB): 116.56 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A J 2 A

fold, MP raises to 3.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB

Flop: (7.2 BB, 2 players) 3 2 7
Hero checks, MP bets 7.2 BB, Hero calls 7.2 BB

Turn: (21.6 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP bets 21.6 BB, Hero calls 21.6 BB

River: (64.8 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, MP bets 64.8 BB, Hero calls 64.8 BB

How bad is this play?
By this point i didn't have any reads on villain. But I managed to win some pots from him and he tilted.
Later on I had the read that he pots 100% of the time he plays a hand, with bluffs and value (but he is a donk, he overplays some hands), and he is a calling station.

The reason that I called is simple:
why would he pot all the streets? I sometimes level myself.
I mean... if he has 77, why would he pot all the time since if he bets less I can call with a wide range? If he has quads, why would he bet so much?
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-28-2014 , 10:33 AM
In a vacuum I think it is fine. Against an unknown, I would not be particularly happy to be calling river, esp given his sizings, but would expect to be good at least the 1/3 times I need to be to make it a profitable call.

Depending on the type of player / your reads on his tendencies + his betsizings, it could be a very standard calldown or a very terrible one. He seems to have very nitty stats, which would it make it less of a good calldown, but then you said he was tilted, which would swing my decision more to calling.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-28-2014 , 11:06 AM
Man that river bet sucks. It's just so rare that villain's triple barrel bluff in these spots at any stakes, much less at 25PLO. That flop should hit your BB defending range waaaay harder than his MP opening range. So when the turn pairs the 3, completes the rainbow AND he pots it again(most semi-competent villains will be checking back their over pairs here obv), he is super polarized imo to air or nutty holdings(3s/77). Once we call turn, and he pots river, I believe we just have to fold this bluff catcher of a hand. I know it sucks, but his story tells(nay, SCREAMS) that he has at least a 3 in his hand, so it's best that we listen in spots like this and toss those aces in the deadwood...
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-28-2014 , 06:54 PM
Yeah considering the stakes and the sizings I don't feel very good about calling river. In relative hand strength, A7 is basically as good as our hand. Though on the flip side our hand is, putting the fact that we'd have a 3 blocker aside, also basically as strong as K3. I haven't played stakes quite this low in a very long time, but at comparable stakes (50 and 100), I think randoms spazz out w/ lines like this enough to make stationing off here +EV. Their logic would be something along the lines "he didn't raise flop so prob didn't have set or 2p then, and I have nothing, so I'm going to put max pressure on his 2p and weak 3 hands." Or just "I can't win if I check, so I bet" and their only bet sizing is pot.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-28-2014 , 07:14 PM
I am kinda lost. we obviously only beat a bluff but he has a tight PF range.
I don't see many 3s or 2s in his range at all.
Only value hands that makes sense are like 77XX, 33XX, 7789. (XX being another pair)
4567 is a hand that makes sense both to barrel flop and turn and bluff big on the river but that alone makes too few combos to call.

Now that I read your post completely I assume he is valuebetting alot lighter than 77,73 and 33. Was he on tilt when that hand got played?
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 05:39 PM
I'd really like to know what he had.

I would have folded river anyway just because sometimes you have to fold the best hand.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 06:28 PM
Would check raising the turn be a bad play here?
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Opeel22
Would check raising the turn be a bad play here?
The only hands that will (may) continue that we beat are KKxx maybe QQxx and 7xxx with some kind of redraw for a straight...

I don't like check raising OTT.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakuba07
The only hands that will (may) continue that we beat are KKxx maybe QQxx and 7xxx with some kind of redraw for a straight...

I don't like check raising OTT.
I was thinking, not necessarily getting him to continue with the worst hand point of view, but to give us more information about how strong he is. If he has 3 or 77xx he would re-raise us back at these stakes and we can easily fold and don't have to make a crying call on the river. We could also pick up a nice pot if he has air and folds.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 06:45 PM
If he has 77xx he could just call because he is too good.
If he has 3xxx he may just call because he does not feel strong enough.

Then this leaves is with a problem on the river.

My guess is that we are in a bad situation in any case.
The best decision is now the cheapest.

So I would call turn and fold river.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 06:57 PM
Can't go around folding every time someone three-barrells
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 06:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loctus
Can't go around folding every time someone three-barrells
Does this mean you think opponent does not beat us here? Uhm...
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 07:58 PM
First off I'd look at his street-by-street AF and barrelling percentages and then decide... 250 hands won't tell us everything but it will tell us if he bets every damn flop and turn he has gone to.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 09:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Opeel22
Would check raising the turn be a bad play here?
Very bad imo
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 10:10 PM
what did he end up having?
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote
08-29-2014 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crashwhips
In a vacuum I think it is fine. Against an unknown, I would not be particularly happy to be calling river, esp given his sizings, but would expect to be good at least the 1/3 times I need to be to make it a profitable call.
Depending on the type of player / your reads on his tendencies + his betsizings, it could be a very standard calldown or a very terrible one. He seems to have very nitty stats, which would it make it less of a good calldown, but then you said he was tilted, which would swing my decision more to calling.
Being right one third of the time does not make this a profitable call. We are getting two to one pot odds, and being right one time out of three means its break-even. Based on the maths of 1 out of 3, it would be a losing call when taking rake into consideration.

Me, I'd have either pumped the turn if I put him on a draw, or fold if I have him trips or better. Once we called the turn, we can't really fold the river when the board haven't really changed.
PLO25z - AAJ2ss oop facing pot all streets on paired board. Can I station this pot? Quote

      
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