Hand 1)
Villain is a reg winner: 5514 hands on him
23/6/2 - Steal 13%
Call 3bet 25%, 4bet 4%
Raise flop cbet 8% - Float flop 30%
Raise turn cbet 21% - Float Turn 7% - Probe turn 13%
no reads, just the stats

PokerStars - $0.25 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 139.84 BB (VPIP: 22.51, PFR: 13.72, 3Bet Preflop: 3.89, Hands: 8,047)
BTN: 103.76 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 5.58, 3Bet Preflop: 1.64, Hands: 5,514)
SB: 189.2 BB (VPIP: 73.17, PFR: 26.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
Hero (BB): 146.08 BB
UTG: 65 BB (VPIP: 20.64, PFR: 15.44, 3Bet Preflop: 5.15, Hands: 612)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 4 A A T

fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, BTN calls 7 BB, fold

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 3 9 J
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (23 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN bets 11 BB, fold

BTN wins 22.04 BB





Hand 2)
Villain is a donk, but somehow he is winning in 316 hands.
80/31/15 - Steal 48% Call 3bet 67%, 4bet 0%
Float flop 23% (3 in 13)
Raise flop cbet 7%


PokerStars - $0.25 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 118.96 BB (VPIP: 22.47, PFR: 13.69, 3Bet Preflop: 3.92, Hands: 7,986)
MP: 67.32 BB (VPIP: 64.42, PFR: 2.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 108)
CO: 106.48 BB (VPIP: 79.94, PFR: 31.07, 3Bet Preflop: 14.58, Hands: 316)
BTN: 174.56 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
Hero (SB): 148.36 BB
BB: 68.08 BB (VPIP: 20.70, PFR: 15.83, 3Bet Preflop: 5.31, Hands: 591)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A Q A 7

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO raises to 4.4 BB, BTN calls 4.4 BB, Hero raises to 19.6 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 15.2 BB, fold

Flop: (45.6 BB, 2 players) 9 6 8
Hero checks, CO bets 36 BB, fold

CO wins 43.68 BB

c/f seems good.

Yeah these are real ugly but typical spots for AA.

Hand 1: Its a button raise meaning villain's range is super wide. He's also a reg which means he probably won't get too out of line. So I prefer betting flop, folding to a raise. Checking allows too much garbage villain could have to draw out and turn will almost always be difficult for you. As played, fold turn as this is the worst card in the deck. However, I wouldn't completely rule out raising aces as a bluff since its slightly unlikely he's checking flop with a flush draw. Its also unlikely he's betting a set so you can comfortably checkfold river if called. A lot of regs just can't handle the pressure deep in this spot without the nuts.

Hand 2: So stacks are 87BB effective with 46BB in the pot. Ugh. This is just a real ugly, pukey, typical "this is what I get for having double suited aces against a donk in PLO" spot. Its somewhat of just an equity calculator thing. But I think I get it in. There's no room to c/c, so if we're not getting against an 80 vpip donk then who are we getting it an against? Are we folding AA in this pot against EVERYONE?

So I decided to play around with hand 2 a bit. So we need roughly 40% equity. Against a loose but fairly normal shoving range, even given villain's preflop range, it looks like we don't have enough.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 968

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhQhAc7c	34.94%	208,483	2,270
70% & (*s*s**, 9***, 8***, 57**, 66**, 7T**, KK**)	65.06%	389,247	2,270

If villain is just shoving his entire range (he's deliberately try to move you off aces) then we do.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 968

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhQhAc7c	45.19%	269,371	3,533
70%	54.81%	327,096	3,533

So basically you just have to ask yourself how often villain has weak overpairs or just plain air and is pure bluffing.