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Small Stakes PL Omaha Discussion of 1/2 and below pot-limit Omaha poker

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Old 04-22-2012, 04:19 PM   #1
MrCraw
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PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

First off, this is in SEK, (1 Euro = 8.8 SEK) -
MP raiser is superaggro and slightly spewy (running about 53/41 3-b 20.8)
BTN is good reg, when he 4-bets he has aces I'd say the vast majority of the time.
BB is a new player, litteraly the first hand I play with him.

So, the only one I can put on aces is the button, is this a profitable all in pre? I am baffled.


    Boss, $10/$20 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12708832

    MP: $7,552.17 (377.6 bb)
    Hero (CO): $2,941.78 (147.1 bb)
    BTN: $4,121.01 (206.1 bb)
    SB: $595.53 (29.8 bb)
    BB: $4,000 (200 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 6 6 9
    MP raises to $70, Hero raises to $240, BTN raises to $820, SB folds, BB calls $800, MP raises to $3,530, Hero calls $2,701.78 and is all-in, BTN raises to $4,121.01 and is all-in, BB calls $3,180 and is all-in, MP calls $591.01

    Flop: ($15,193.80) 8 4 5 (4 players, 3 are all-in)
    Turn: ($15,193.80) 4 (4 players, 3 are all-in)
    River: ($15,193.80) Q (4 players, 3 are all-in)

    Spoiler:



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
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    Old 04-22-2012, 05:29 PM   #2
    RI Don
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    with 4 people in, you'd need to win a little more than 1/4 times so your hand needs to have at least 25+% equity vs. four hands. We need to assume one person has AAxx. In that scenario I think you have about 25% equity against AAxx, a top 10% hand, and a top 25% hand...but if any of your flushes are covered (likely) it's going to reduce your equity.

    I wouldn't make this play but if you could get 4-1 on your money every time you made this play, i guess it would be marginally profitable.
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    Old 04-22-2012, 05:30 PM   #3
    gimmetheloot
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    za im prettz sure u gotta go with that
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    Old 04-23-2012, 01:37 AM   #4
    MrCraw
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Say it was 7788 ds, I would have to go with it, right? I guess the gap is too big between the 6 and the 9 to make this profitable aswell.

    Probably should be a fold afterall, considering the flatter from bb very often has some sort of rundown or wrap containing an 9 (or a 6) like he did this time, also counterfiting my straight opportunities.

    Not sure though, any more thoughts?
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    Old 04-23-2012, 01:49 AM   #5
    Roy
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Ya get it in.
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    Old 04-23-2012, 02:00 AM   #6
    ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    shouldnt this be really easy to solve with ppt?

    my gut says its a really marginal jam
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    Old 04-23-2012, 09:38 AM   #7
    gimmetheloot
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    1st two say get it in, respond saying i guess i should fold...

    next 2 say get it in, balls in your court OP
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    Old 04-23-2012, 06:12 PM   #8
    monikrazy
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    feels like a fold, im not confident we have 25% often enough to want to put in another 135 bb
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    Old 04-23-2012, 07:48 PM   #9
    lifes3ps
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
    feels like a fold, im not confident we have 25% often enough to want to put in another 135 bb
    by then we need waaay less than 25%
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    Old 04-24-2012, 02:12 PM   #10
    MrCraw
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gimmetheloot View Post
    1st two say get it in, respond saying i guess i should fold...

    next 2 say get it in, balls in your court OP
    well I someone saying "get it in" without motivation isn't really what I expected, yet the first post did make me think it might not be that profitable, seeing as all I've invested is a 3-bet, I now need to risk my remaining stack which is almost 150bb to win, fair enough, a big pot, but is it worth it?

    The general feel however is that I should get it in, and I thank you all for your opinions on the matter.


    Actually, if it's this marginal, shouldn't it be a fold? That's what people kept telling me when I started playing PLO - avoid marginal spots.
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    Old 04-24-2012, 05:40 PM   #11
    RI Don
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    While you have the right odds (almost) I'd fold 100% of the time. Without even thinking.
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    Old 04-24-2012, 09:44 PM   #12
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    just ppt it.

    enjoy the variance train. choo choo.

    ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
    228,408 trials (Randomized)
    Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
    9d9s6d6s26.81% 61,029394
    AA**32.17% 71,5643,869
    20%20.49% 45,1273,384
    20%20.53% 45,2543,305
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    Old 04-24-2012, 10:30 PM   #13
    Alrighty Roo
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MrCraw View Post
    Actually, if it's this marginal, shouldn't it be a fold? That's what people kept telling me when I started playing PLO - avoid marginal spots.
    Nearly all spots are 'marginal' in PLO. Just focus on making +EV decisions.
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    Old 04-25-2012, 07:54 PM   #14
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Alrighty Roo View Post
    Nearly all spots are 'marginal' in PLO. Just focus on making +EV decisions.
    this basicallt, if u fold in marginal spots like this (not that marginal after the action) your gonna lose. gotta be willing to gamble it up as long as u have a roll able to sustain the variance. (disregard this BS if u run like I do)
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    Old 04-25-2012, 09:26 PM   #15
    ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    plus the more marginal spots you play the more vpps you earn
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    Old 04-26-2012, 02:54 AM   #16
    Maffff
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Why is it when there's a marginal spot everyone always says 'get it in'? Is it just like ego trip on forums? In reality it doesn't matter what you do.
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    Old 04-26-2012, 04:01 AM   #17
    Doublea35313
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    get it in, close your eyes, and hope when you open them you have all the monies
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    Old 04-26-2012, 04:44 AM   #18
    ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Maffff View Post
    Why is it when there's a marginal spot everyone always says 'get it in'? Is it just like ego trip on forums? In reality it doesn't matter what you do.
    vpps and meta/image
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    Old 04-26-2012, 05:10 AM   #19
    guimz
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S View Post
    plus the more marginal spots you play the more vpps you earn
    that's a sne oriented answer ^^
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    Old 04-26-2012, 08:36 AM   #20
    cassurai
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    I think in this spot it's likely that both MP and BTN have AA given their actions. This is slightly different from some other preflop spots where only one guy assuredly has AA and the rest are a bunch of cold callers.

    meow_meow did a sim vs AA, 20%, 20% and you are 26.81%, which already is greater than the 25% you need.

    However, spots where it's likely that not one, but two people have AA, is actually much closer to shoving 9966ds than spots where there is a bunch of cold callers who keeps cold calling every reraise and whatever.

    In fact, if two of them both have AA and BB has a top 15% hand, you're a actually favourite.

    ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
    154,488 trials (Randomized)
    Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
    AA20.84% 19,45225,499
    AA20.82% 19,42625,483
    9966$ds32.00% 49,311256
    15%26.33% 40,516333

    I'm not saying I can guarantee that two of them both have AA, but this spot is more likely to have two AAs than some spots where for example UTG raises, MP flats, you 3bet, BB flats, UTG 4bets, MP flats again, etc etc. THEN it's very marginal because only UTG (in this example) has AA. In this hand it's a different case and it's more likely to have 2 AAs.

    Not even that marginal. Get it in.
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    Old 04-26-2012, 09:23 AM   #21
    squeezeit
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    Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S View Post
    plus the more marginal spots you play the more vpps you earn
    LOOOOL!
    and the more u will will have to buy lots of $$ with your Fpps to get BE =DD
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