PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
First off, this is in SEK, (1 Euro = 8.8 SEK) -
MP raiser is superaggro and slightly spewy (running about 53/41 3-b 20.8) BTN is good reg, when he 4-bets he has aces I'd say the vast majority of the time. BB is a new player, litteraly the first hand I play with him. So, the only one I can put on aces is the button, is this a profitable all in pre? I am baffled. Boss, $10/$20 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12708832 MP: $7,552.17 (377.6 bb) Hero (CO): $2,941.78 (147.1 bb) BTN: $4,121.01 (206.1 bb) SB: $595.53 (29.8 bb) BB: $4,000 (200 bb) Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:diamond: 6:spade: 6:diamond: 9:spade: MP raises to $70, Hero raises to $240, BTN raises to $820, SB folds, BB calls $800, MP raises to $3,530, Hero calls $2,701.78 and is all-in, BTN raises to $4,121.01 and is all-in, BB calls $3,180 and is all-in, MP calls $591.01 Flop: ($15,193.80) 8:heart: 4:heart: 5:spade: (4 players, 3 are all-in) Turn: ($15,193.80) 4:spade: (4 players, 3 are all-in) River: ($15,193.80) Q:heart: (4 players, 3 are all-in) Spoiler:
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
with 4 people in, you'd need to win a little more than 1/4 times so your hand needs to have at least 25+% equity vs. four hands. We need to assume one person has AAxx. In that scenario I think you have about 25% equity against AAxx, a top 10% hand, and a top 25% hand...but if any of your flushes are covered (likely) it's going to reduce your equity.
I wouldn't make this play but if you could get 4-1 on your money every time you made this play, i guess it would be marginally profitable. |
Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
za im prettz sure u gotta go with that
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
Say it was 7788 ds, I would have to go with it, right? I guess the gap is too big between the 6 and the 9 to make this profitable aswell.
Probably should be a fold afterall, considering the flatter from bb very often has some sort of rundown or wrap containing an 9 (or a 6) like he did this time, also counterfiting my straight opportunities. Not sure though, any more thoughts? |
Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
Ya get it in.
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
shouldnt this be really easy to solve with ppt?
my gut says its a really marginal jam |
Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
1st two say get it in, respond saying i guess i should fold...
next 2 say get it in, balls in your court OP |
Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
feels like a fold, im not confident we have 25% often enough to want to put in another 135 bb
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
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The general feel however is that I should get it in, and I thank you all for your opinions on the matter. Actually, if it's this marginal, shouldn't it be a fold? That's what people kept telling me when I started playing PLO - avoid marginal spots. |
Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
While you have the right odds (almost) I'd fold 100% of the time. Without even thinking.
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
just ppt it.
enjoy the variance train. choo choo.
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
plus the more marginal spots you play the more vpps you earn
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
Why is it when there's a marginal spot everyone always says 'get it in'? Is it just like ego trip on forums? In reality it doesn't matter what you do.
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
get it in, close your eyes, and hope when you open them you have all the monies
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Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
I think in this spot it's likely that both MP and BTN have AA given their actions. This is slightly different from some other preflop spots where only one guy assuredly has AA and the rest are a bunch of cold callers.
meow_meow did a sim vs AA, 20%, 20% and you are 26.81%, which already is greater than the 25% you need. However, spots where it's likely that not one, but two people have AA, is actually much closer to shoving 9966ds than spots where there is a bunch of cold callers who keeps cold calling every reraise and whatever. In fact, if two of them both have AA and BB has a top 15% hand, you're a actually favourite.
I'm not saying I can guarantee that two of them both have AA, but this spot is more likely to have two AAs than some spots where for example UTG raises, MP flats, you 3bet, BB flats, UTG 4bets, MP flats again, etc etc. THEN it's very marginal because only UTG (in this example) has AA. In this hand it's a different case and it's more likely to have 2 AAs. Not even that marginal. Get it in. |
Re: PLO200 (in SEK) - 6699 DS AI pre deep multiway?
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and the more u will will have to buy lots of $$ with your Fpps to get BE =DD;) |
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