I think in this spot it's likely that both MP and BTN have AA given their actions. This is slightly different from some other preflop spots where only one guy assuredly has AA and the rest are a bunch of cold callers.
meow_meow did a sim vs AA, 20%, 20% and you are 26.81%, which already is greater than the 25% you need.
However, spots where it's likely that not one, but two people have AA, is actually much closer to shoving 9966ds than spots where there is a bunch of cold callers who keeps cold calling every reraise and whatever.
In fact, if two of them both have AA and BB has a top 15% hand, you're a actually favourite.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
AA | 20.84% | 19,452 | 25,499 |
AA | 20.82% | 19,426 | 25,483 |
9966$ds | 32.00% | 49,311 | 256 |
15% | 26.33% | 40,516 | 333 |
I'm not saying I can guarantee that two of them both have AA, but this spot is more likely to have two AAs than some spots where for example UTG raises, MP flats, you 3bet, BB flats, UTG 4bets, MP flats again, etc etc. THEN it's very marginal because only UTG (in this example) has AA. In this hand it's a different case and it's more likely to have 2 AAs.
Not even that marginal. Get it in.