What a brilliant level! I was shocked twice when I made ProPokerTools sims.
Please 1) don't post results, 2) fold this trash preflop - it's a rundown, but the lowest one and it's offsuit. The 1st (small) shock is that this hand's PPT rank is 94 out of 100 (1 is the best, 100 is the worst) - well, I knew that it's trash but I thought it's in the top 90% at least...
And the 2nd shock is that shoving here vs a competent BB is as profitable as folding!!! The thing is that, if BB is quite tight from the blinds (correctly so), A3 is much more frequent in his range than 6-3 and sets, and he undoubtedly plays A3 in the same manner if he perceives you and UTG as good/unknown players who play tight preflop because he thinks your hands seldom contain 6-3, but he still needs to defend his str8 from sets. We need to have 40% equity to shove profitably (to count the odds you need correctly, imagine that the game is no-limit and he simply shoved into you), and we have it! (Most of the time we've got 10 outs to win and 3 outs to split.)
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
5s4h3c2d | 41.00% | 1,014,186 | 318,505 |
(A3,63,55,44,22):25% | 59.00% | 1,529,109 | 318,505 |
Calling now and folding on blank turns doesn't make much difference to shoving because we'll have equity ~24% facing a bet only slightly bigger than half the pot.
So we've got a rare case when all the 3 flop decisions are close. Which one to choose? It depends on what table image of yourself you want to create. However, if you've already noticed before that BB is such a drooler, then shove without any second thought.